The college basketball odds board finally heats up again on Friday, including two Big East matchups. Let’s break down my college basketball best bets for one of them, as red-hot Xavier heads to Georgetown.
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Xavier at Georgetown: Spread, Moneyline, Total
Unless you’ve been living under a rock to start the season, you’d expect to only see one of these teams in the top 25 of my college basketball power rankings. Subscribe to Outside Shots on TheLines Podcast Network, as Scott Phillips and I break down everything college hoops betting, including Creighton at Marquette.
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Bet The Ugly Underdog?
Xavier is generating 1.10 PPP — good for the 26th-ranked offensive efficiency in the country. However, the Musketeers’ shooting prowess is a bit unsustainable, especially from behind the arc (40.8%). Particularly, UTEP transfer Souley Boum boasts a 51.2% clip from distance.
Moreover, ShotQuality estimates that their 3-point efficiency should be closer to 33.0%. Negative variance certainly isn’t predictable, especially against a Georgetown defense that’s allowing the 44th-highest perimeter scoring rate in DI. But it’s plausible in this instance, as Sean Miller’s team could very well overlook the struggling Hoyas.
Even with their unreliable tendencies under coach Patrick Ewing, who’s difficult to trust in his own right, their 5-6 record shouldn’t negate their positive indicators.
For one, Ewing’s bunch showcases the length to hinder Xavier’s frontcourt tandem of Jack Nunge and Zach Freemantle. Georgetown bigs Akok Akok and Qudus Wahab help surrender the 56th-fewest ShotQuality PPP when opponents attack the rim.
Given the Musketeers’ reliance on that area, the Hoyas are set up to manufacture a handful of transition opportunities if Akok and Wahab manage to stay out of foul trouble.
Strangely enough, Georgetown actually possesses one of the most talented starting backcourts in the Big East. If (and a big if at that) Primo Spears and Brandon Murray exhibit an extra ounce of defensive intensity, they’ll likely disrupt Xavier’s miscue-prone backcourt. The Musketeers rank No. 205 in turnover rate, and it’s a notable issue for backup point guard Desmond Claude.
Related: 2023 March Madness Futures Odds
College Basketball Best Bets Conclusion
I backed Georgetown +11.5, which you’ll find in our aforementioned Discord betting channel. Xavier is slightly overvalued in the market. Good luck with your own college basketball best bets.
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