Monday College Basketball Best Bets: Is Minnesota Undervalued?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on November 28, 2022 - Last Updated on November 29, 2022
College Basketball Best Bets

While Monday’s college basketball odds board is on the slimmer end of the spectrum, the 2022 ACC/Big Ten Challenge has arrived. Virginia Tech and Minnesota tip it off, so where do my college basketball best bets lie for this matchup?

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Minnesota at Virginia Tech: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Neither program finds itself in my college basketball power rankings, but there’s clearly a substantial drop-off from the Hokies to the Golden Gophers in the market. Subscribe to the Outside Shots podcast, as Scott Phillips and I break down everything college hoops betting.

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Minnesota’s Welcomed Reinsertion

Considering the Gophers’ 2-4 ATS record, the underdog doesn’t seem like an appealing option on the surface. However, Ben Johnson’s team received a much-needed offensive boost during its last two games — in the form of Jamison Battle.

The 6-foot-7, 225-pound forward represented Minnesota’s leading scorer in 2021-22. His return from a foot injury has provided the Gophers with additional floor-spacing. Their inability to cover games without Johnson may not be accounted for enough.

Moreover, the Gophers operate at an extremely methodical pace, ranking No. 356 in Adjusted Tempo (per KenPom). This metric is an estimate of the tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) that a team would manufacture against an opponent that operates at an average D-I pace.

Virginia Tech ranks No. 333 in that department, so possessions will be at a premium. Hence, Minnesota’s ability to cover a bigger spread is greater than the implied probability suggests, as long as its offense is efficient enough.

Granted, the Hokies boast the 29th-ranked Adjusted Defensive ShotQuality. Virginia Tech is even more difficult to score on in the half court, too.

But Minnesota’s pick-and-roll sets should deliver enough success, as that represents the Hokies’ most glaring defensive concern. As long as two-time transfer Dawson Garcia executes around the rim, it will lead to open looks for Battle & Co.

Related: 2023 March Madness Futures Odds

College Basketball Best Bets Conclusion

I bet Golden Gophers +12 on Monday morning, which you’ll find in our aforementioned Discord betting channel. I’d play this wager down to +11.5. Good luck with your own college basketball best bets for Virginia Tech – Minnesota.

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