Wednesday’s college hoops schedule features eight ranked teams, including a top-15 matchup between No. 7 Baylor and No. 11 Texas Tech. Let’s break down this game to determine whether there are any college basketball best bets for it.
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You can even continue the discussion in our Discord betting community, as we dissect all of the games throughout the day. Stay up-to-date on the top-68 programs with my college basketball power rankings.
Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Both teams are dealing with injuries, but the Bears’ wounds are a tad more significant. Not only did Baylor center Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua undergo season-ending knee surgery following Saturday’s win over Texas, but guard LJ Cryer (foot) is also questionable.
Meanwhile, Red Raiders guards Kevin McCullar (ankle) and Sardaar Calhoun (COVID-19 protocols) are game-time decisions. McCullar is generating the team’s highest assist rate and posted a 12-5-5 stat line in Texas Tech’s upset win in Waco, Texas on Jan. 11.
Coincidentally, each team runs a no-middle defense, yet the Red Raiders’ set-up is more susceptible against stout perimeter offenses. Mark Adams’ unit is surrendering the Big 12’s sixth-highest open 3-point rate while the Bears generate plenty of off-the-dribble shots from behind the arc (via ShotQuality).
Cryer’s status will be a key factor in that regard, as he’s producing Baylor’s most efficient perimeter clip (46.7%).
Moreover, Scott Drew’s bunch will miss Tchamwa Tchatchoua’s presence on the glass, along with his ball-screen coverage. Not only is Texas Tech an underrated offensive rebounding team, but it runs plenty of pick-and-roll and off-ball action in Adams’ motion offense.
If McCullar suits up, his prowess for picking apart opposing defenses in those sets will be a tough task for Baylor to stop.
Minus Tchamwa Tchatchoua, the Bears need four-star freshman Jeremy Sochan to step up. The 6-foot-9 forward didn’t play in their first meeting. He’s a valuable contributor on the boards and with his ballhawk-like presence.
Given Texas Tech’s significant home-court advantage, the current spread is spot on with my numbers. Unless an intriguing in-game angle arises, I won’t be betting on it.
Eli’s College Basketball Best Bets: Pass
Best Available Line: Texas Tech