Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets: Will Texas Road Slump Continue?

Written By Derek Wagner on March 1, 2023
College Basketball Best Bets

There are 11 ranked teams in action on Wednesday’s college basketball odds board, including No. 9 Texas at No. 22 TCU. Let’s break down my college basketball best bets for this matchup, as the Longhorns are in for another tough road test.

Click on the odds below to place a bet.

No. 9 Texas at No. 22 TCU: Betting Odds

Horned Frogs With Situational Edge

I love this spot for TCU, returning home after a huge win over Texas Tech on Saturday. The Horned Frogs were in dire need of a road victory after losing five of their last six games. This game also represents a revenge spot for Mike Miles & Co., losing 79-75 in Austin in January. Expect Jamie Dixon’s squad to come out motivated in front of the home crowd.

Situationally speaking, it’s a sandwich spot for Texas as well. The Longhorns just lost 81-72 against Baylor this past Saturday, and they have a huge matchup slated versus the Jayhawks this Saturday at the Moody Center. They certainly won’t overlook the Horned Frogs, but Dixon’s team has Oklahoma on deck. Hence, this matchup favors TCU in that context.

Keep in mind, Horned Frogs center Eddie Lampkin is still nursing an ankle injury he suffered on Jan. 21 against Kansas. Lampkin has played through the injury but has been ineffective for the most part. It’s unclear whether or not he’ll suit up in this rematch.

Although TCU is shooting 29.2% from behind the arc (No. 353 nationally), it may be due for positive regression. Texas has allowed its conference opponents to shoot a blistering 35.4% from deep, which ranks dead-last in the Big 12. With Miles back from an ankle issue, the Horned Frogs’ guards could light up Texas’ struggling no-middle defense.

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Texas Road Struggles

The Longhorns have dropped three consecutive conference road games. The task only gets more difficult, as TCU possesses a top-five home court advantage across D-I (per KenPom). If you’re into trends, TCU is 9-5-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.

Texas’ recent concerns away from home can be attributed in large part to rebounding and turnovers. Over the course of this skid, the Longhorns have surrendered 11 offensive rebounds per game. Those rebounds have resulted in 37 second-chance points.

TCU is primed to dominate on the glass and score easy second-chance points, ranking No. 40 in offensive rebound rate. Even with Lampkin out against Texas Tech, the Frogs displayed their dominance on the glass while collected 13 offensive boards.

Moreover, the Longhorns have struggled in the turnover department. They’re averaging 12 per game in this span, which includes a whopping 15 versus both Baylor and Kansas. Iowa State transfer Tyrese Hunter is the main culprit, delivering an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.10 on the road.

To make matters worse, the Frogs rank No. 6 nationally in quick points off breakaway steals. That should again come to fruition against a team that has concerns versus ball pressure.

College Basketball Best Bets Conclusion

The Frogs had high expectations entering the campaign, but a year full of injuries has made them fall shy of a Big 12 regular season title. I’ve been hesitant to back TCU because of it, but as I previously stated, this contest is a prime situational spot. The Frogs should manufacture some easy second-chance buckets, as well as tallying their fair share of transition opportunities.

The best available line is currently TCU . Best of luck on your own college basketball best bets. For more, check out our college basketball power rankings.

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