Monday College Basketball Best Bets: Oral Roberts Undervalued?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on November 7, 2022 - Last Updated on November 8, 2022
College Basketball Best Bets

Welcome back. There hasn’t been a single-game wager available on the college basketball odds board since Kansas nearly tallied a backdoor cover against UNC in the national title game. But my college basketball best bets have returned, centering around a pair of mid-major games.

Join our Discord betting channel (under the #roles server) to receive an immediate notification from the Discord app when I make a bet. Click on any of the odds to place a wager.

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Oral Roberts at St. Mary’s Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Oral Roberts’ mascot is named Eli, so how could we not begin with this game? Let’s dissect all of the notable angles for this matchup.

Assessing Gaels’ Potential Concerns

Despite attaining a five-seed in the 2022 NCAA Tournament, Saint Mary’s received plenty of positive variance, attaining the 15th-most record luck among programs with at least 25 wins (via ShotQuality). Granted, this notion doesn’t guarantee that negative regression will occur this season.

Nevertheless, the Gaels lost a trio of their most impactful contributors — highlighted by 6-foot-10 big Matthias Taas and lead guard Tommy Kuhse. Considering Randy Bennett’s offense revolves around ball-screen action, those departures are ever so critical.

With that being said, the Eagles’ defense has never been anything to ride home about under Paul Mills. Mitchell Saxen immediately steps in as a low-post threat within the Gaels’ methodical offense as well. But the addition of Connor Vanover (Arkansas) and Patrick Mwamba (UT Arlington) will surely aid their rim protection.

Hello, Mr. Abmas

Remember the Oral Roberts team that advanced to the Sweet 16? Unlike numerous mid-major stars, Max Abmas elected to not transfer to a Power Five program.

Now, Bennett’s defensive structure is elite at shutting forcing opponents to score via isolation sets. It surrendered the lowest assist rate across college basketball in 2021-22. Factor ballhawk specialist Logan Johnson shadowing Abmas throughout, and the the Eagles’ uptempo attack could very well struggle in the halfcourt.

Mind you, Abmas generated the fifth-highest scoring production (22.8 points per game) across Division I last season.

However, Mills’ unit is known for accruing highly-efficient, off-the-dribble perimeter shots. In fact, it finished with the fourth-most ShotQuality PPP in that department in 2021-22.

Despite Saint Mary’s knack for running opponents off the 3-point stripe, that area represents its biggest defensive liability. Couple that with Mills returning all three of his finest 3-point gunners, including Abmas. Their turnover-free mantra bodes well against the Gaels’ ball pressure, too.

College Basketball Best Bets Conclusion

Saint Mary’s laying three possessions — against the antithesis of its overall identity — is too much. I bet Oral Roberts +10.5 on Friday, which you’ll find in our aforementioned Discord channel. Play it down to +9.5.

Related: 2022-23 College Basketball Power Rankings

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Penn at Iona Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Betting on the road underdog boiled down to whether Quakers guards Jordan Dingle and Clark Slajchert will play. They’ll both reportedly suit up, so I bet Penn at +7 on Monday morning. Play it down to +6.5.

The Ivy league favorite showcases another premier mid-major scorer in Dingle, who will be tested by defensive stopper Berrick JeanLouis. Led by the 6-foot-3 Dingle, the Quakers’ isolation attack produced the 66th-highest ShotQuality PPP in 2021-22. But Steve Donahue’s motion offense should be more effective collectively this go-around with a healthy Max Lorca-Lloyd in the middle.

The 6-foot-9 center has played in just 15 games over two seasons. His presence will also be needed to limit Gaels center Nelly Junior Joseph.

Still, Iona could see its offense scuffle a bit after losing three of its top-five scorers as well. That includes Tyson Jolley (14.6 ppg) and Elijah Joiner (11.6 ppg).

For more college basketball best bets and analysis, subscribe to my brand-new podcast, “Outside Shots.”

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