Despite all of the COVID uncertainty, there’s still value to be had within Wednesday’s college basketball schedule. Here’s a breakdown of my college basketball best bets for a Big Ten clash between No. 10 Michigan State and Nebraska.
Click on the odds below to place a bet now. You can continue the discussion in our betting community, as we dissect all of the games throughout the week.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans
Tom Izzo’s bunch has racked up seven consecutive straight-up wins while going 5-2 against the spread during that span. The Spartans are now as low as +1500 to win the national title, and they check in at No. 15 in my college basketball power rankings.
Although the Cornhuskers have undergone a 6-8 start, including the loss of Trey McGowens (broken foot), Fred Hoiberg is showcasing more of the philosophy that made him successful at Iowa State — pressure defense. Nebraska is tallying the 69th-highest opponents’ turnover rate, as Hoiberg finally possesses the athleticism to generate consistent havoc again.
Michigan State is struggling to limit its miscues despite exceeding expectations in Izzo’s motion offense, accumulating a bottom-120 turnover percentage.
Both teams strive to ramp up the tempo, but Nebraska will accrue its fair share of transition opportunities if Michigan State’s blunders continue. The Spartans also rank No. 226 in near-proximity attempts allowed per 100 possessions versus the average opponent (lay-ups, dunks and tip-ins via Haslametrics) — a byproduct of their turnover issues.
On the flip side, the Cornhuskers’ offense sits in the top 100 of that department. As long as Alonzo Verge & Co. aren’t stuck in half-court sets, they’re in position to hang within five possessions.
Let’s sell-high on the Spartans in a potential look-ahead spot with their in-state rivalry game at Michigan on deck.
Eli’s Bet: Nebraska +15.5 (placed on Wednesday morning at DraftKings Sportsbook)
College Basketball Best Bets: Nebraska +15 or better
Best Available Line: Nebraska