College Basketball Best Bets: Spread Picks for Seton Hall at Michigan, Oregon vs. BYU

Written By Eli Hershkovich on November 16, 2021 - Last Updated on November 17, 2021
College Basketball Best Bets

Although we don’t have any ranked games on Tuesday’s slate, it’s still loaded with enticing matchups. Here’s a breakdown of my college basketball best bets for Seton Hall at No. 4 Michigan, along with No. 12 Oregon against BYU on a neutral floor.

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College Basketball Best Bets: Tuesday, Nov. 16

Seton Hall Pirates at No. 4 Michigan Wolverines

In the third matchup of the Gavitt Tipoff Games, the Wolverines will go toe-to-toe with their toughest test yet. The Pirates have surrendered the lowest effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in college basketball this season.

  • eFG% is comparable to standard field goal percentage, but it gives 50% more credit to made three-pointers.

That’s just a two-game sample size, but Seton Hall possesses the size and length to disrupt Juwan Howard’s offensive flow. It represents one of the premier pick-and-roll defenses in the country. Michigan thrives in that department, normally resulting in a Hunter Dickinson dunk.

With Ike Obiagu, Tyrese Samuel and even Tray Jackson, head coach Kevin Willard has more than enough physicality to bully the Wolverines at that end. After Jared Rhoden (ankle) returned to the rotation on Sunday, Seton Hall could even run out a lineup where it’s smallest player is 6-foot-6. In particular, Wolverines two-guard Eli Brooks will have an arduous time finding space on the perimeter against Syracuse transfer Kadary Richmond.

Offensively, Seton Hall isn’t necessarily set up for success if it’s going to rely on its perimeter attack. We saw how that went for Buffalo despite the Bulls covering our full-game bet.

But Willard’s bunch will expose the opposition in transition if it speeds up the tempo, as the Wolverines are yielding the 77th-highest two-point scoring rate in the country. Similar to the Pirates’ early-season defensive success, we only have a small chunk of data. Nevertheless, transition defense has been an area of concern in Howard’s tenure at Michigan.

I grabbed Seton Hall +9 on Monday night, but there’s still value in the road underdog getting around three possessions against the spread.

Eli’s College Basketball Best Bets: Seton Hall +9 (recommend +8.5 or better)
Best Available Line: Seton Hall

No. 12 Oregon Ducks vs. BYU Cougars

There’s been chatter about Dana Altman’s team presenting value in the futures market at . While I’m intrigued by Oregon’s refined roster, its matchup zone defense was in prime position to disrupt SMU on Friday. They may not be as fortunate in this contest.

BYU brought back 61.9% of their minutes from a season ago, but it is only shooting 24.9% from the perimeter over the first two games. Alex Barcello — the Cougars’ top scoring threat — has been the one constant with an 81.2 eFG%.

Their poor shooting should correct itself against this type of defensive setup, but Mark Pope’s team has also struggled with turnovers. Altman’s signature press could generate miscues, guided by a trio of ballhawks Will Richardson, Jacob Young and De’Vion Harmon.

I’ll monitor the Phil Knight Invitational with a live betting angle in mind. BYU must prove it can unsettle Oregon’s defense first.

Conclusion: Pass, but consider BYU live (+7.5 or better)
Best Available Line: BYU

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Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

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