Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets: Low-Scoring Affair in Ann Arbor?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on January 4, 2023 - Last Updated on January 7, 2023
College Basketball Best Bets

Wednesday’s college basketball odds feature a pair of Big Ten contests, including Penn State at Michigan. Let’s delve into my college basketball best bets for this game.

Join our Discord betting channel (under the #roles server) and get an immediate notification for whenever I make a bet. Click on any of the odds below to place a wager, too.

Penn State at Michigan: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Subscribe to Outside Shots on TheLines Podcast Network, as Scott Phillips and I break down everything college hoops betting. A new episode will be released on Thursday, previewing this weekend’s games. You can also check out my latest college basketball power rankings.

Free Pick’Em Contests! Compete for prizes every day by entering our free betting games. NFL, NBA, college basketball and more!

How To Bet The Total

Neither of these teams is ultra-intriguing defensively on the surface, ranking outside of the top 60 within KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency metric. For context, AdjD is an estimate of the defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) a team would surrender against the average Division I offense.

Nevertheless, they both present matchup constraints against one another. Penn State is yielding the third-fewest ShotQuality PPP in pick-and-roll situations. If Micah Shrewsberry chooses to pack the paint, his unit will be in position to minimize Hunter Dickinson’s effectiveness.

While the 7-foot-1, 260-pound big represents one of the conference’s finer centers, his efficiency around the rim hasn’t been overly imposing, either.

Moreover, the Nittany Lions showcase a bottom-145 Average Possession Length across DI. Their slow tempo certainly favors the under. They’re also due for a bit of shooting regression from behind the arc after manufacturing a 38.8% clip to date.

That’s even more noticeable since they’re producing a below-average open 3-point rate. Seth Lundy, Cameron Funk, Andrew Wynter, and Myles Dread are all capable contested shotmakers, yet their sweltering percentages have helped inflate this total.

Transition opportunities should be at a premium, too, stalling the pace even more. In fact, Penn State and Michigan find themselves with the two lowest turnover rates in the country.

Related: 2023 March Madness Futures Odds

College Basketball Best Bets Conclusion

I bet under 141.5 this morning, which you’ll find in our aforementioned Discord betting channel. I’d play it down to 140.5, but factor in a smaller edge. Good luck with your own college basketball best bets.

Exclusive Sportsbook Offers

You’ll find the best available sign-up offers from many of the nationwide legal sportsbooks below.

UP TO $1,250 BONUS
New User Bonus. T&Cs Apply.
DraftKings Promo: Bet $5 Win $200
PLUS $50 Bonus Bet On Deposit
PLUS Up to $1,000 Deposit Bonus
To Claim: Click Bet Now
UP TO $1,250
On Caesars
Stream NFL Games In App For Free
+ get 1,000 Caesars Reward Credits 
+ also get 1,000 Tier Credits 
Redeem for Bet Credits, Hotel Stays, & More!
Use Promo Code: LEGALFULL
No Sweat First Bet
Big Game Promo: Up to $3,000 No Sweat First Bet
Available on iOS, Android & Desktop
To Claim: Click Bet Now
Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich