Wednesday’s college basketball odds feature a pair of Big Ten contests, including Penn State at Michigan. Let’s delve into my college basketball best bets for this game.
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Penn State at Michigan: Spread, Moneyline, Total
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How To Bet The Total
Neither of these teams is ultra-intriguing defensively on the surface, ranking outside of the top 60 within KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency metric. For context, AdjD is an estimate of the defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) a team would surrender against the average Division I offense.
Nevertheless, they both present matchup constraints against one another. Penn State is yielding the third-fewest ShotQuality PPP in pick-and-roll situations. If Micah Shrewsberry chooses to pack the paint, his unit will be in position to minimize Hunter Dickinson’s effectiveness.
While the 7-foot-1, 260-pound big represents one of the conference’s finer centers, his efficiency around the rim hasn’t been overly imposing, either.
Moreover, the Nittany Lions showcase a bottom-145 Average Possession Length across DI. Their slow tempo certainly favors the under. They’re also due for a bit of shooting regression from behind the arc after manufacturing a 38.8% clip to date.
That’s even more noticeable since they’re producing a below-average open 3-point rate. Seth Lundy, Cameron Funk, Andrew Wynter, and Myles Dread are all capable contested shotmakers, yet their sweltering percentages have helped inflate this total.
Transition opportunities should be at a premium, too, stalling the pace even more. In fact, Penn State and Michigan find themselves with the two lowest turnover rates in the country.
Related: 2023 March Madness Futures Odds
College Basketball Best Bets Conclusion
I bet under 141.5 this morning, which you’ll find in our aforementioned Discord betting channel. I’d play it down to 140.5, but factor in a smaller edge. Good luck with your own college basketball best bets.
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