Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets: St. John’s To Snap Three-Game Skid?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on January 3, 2023
College Basketball Best Bets

Tuesday’s college basketball odds board features a bevy of intriguing matchups — even among unranked teams. Let’s delve into my college basketball best bets for Marquette at St. John’s.

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Marquette at St. John’s: Spread, Moneyline, Total

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Prime Situational Spot In Queens

If you’re unfamiliar with this particular betting notion, situational spots seek to reveal conditions in which programs have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal level of play — relative to the moneyline or spread. Not only has St. John’s dropped three consecutive contests, but Marquette is also riding an eight-game winning streak. Hence, this affair represents a buy-low, sell-high spot.

The Golden Eagles boast the ninth-rated Adjusted Offensive Efficiency per KenPom, employing their fair share of pick-and-roll sets. Tyler Kolek is the core variable, notching the 13th-highest assist rate in the country.

With that in mind, the Red Storm have struggled against superior competition this season. However, their pressure defense is designed to disrupt and limit ball-screen action. Factor in their additional motivation at Carnesecca Arena, and I’d anticipate them rising to the occasion at that end of the floor.

Mike Anderson’s transition offense would normally reap the benefits, as St. John’s half-court attack ranks No. 178 in ShotQuality PPP. But thanks to Marquette’s struggles against motion-driven play types, which the Johnnies deliver at a top-40 frequency, Shaka Smart’s defense could be in for a long night in both areas.

On top of that, the Red Storm are a nuisance on the offensive glass — led by 6-foot-11 Joel Soriano. Considering how Golden Eagles have scuffled to restrict second-chance opportunities, the Johnnies’ gang rebounding effort should lead to even more clean looks around the rim.

Related: 2023 March Madness Futures Odds

College Basketball Best Bets Conclusion

I bet St. John’s +2.5 this morning, which you’ll find in our aforementioned Discord betting channel. I’d play it down to +2. Good luck with your own college basketball best bets.

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