Saturday College Basketball Best Bets: Kansas On Upset Alert Vs. West Virginia?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on January 7, 2023
college basketball best bets

Saturday’s college basketball odds boards features 19 ranked programs, including No. 3 Kansas at West Virginia. Let’s break down my college basketball best bets for this Big 12 clash.

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Kansas at West Virginia: Spread, Moneyline, Total

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Prime Situational Spot?

In case you’re unfamiliar with this particular betting notion, situational spots aim to identify circumstances in which teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed expectations — relative to the moneyline or spread.

Not only have the Jayhawks won seven consecutive contests, but the Mountaineers have dropped two straight games as well. Hence, this game supplies us with a buy-low, sell-high spot.

The defending champs possess the second-shortest national title odds at som shops () — behind only the Houston Cougars (). Jalen Wilson has ascended as the premier wing across DI, and Dajuan Harris represents the best two-way point guard in the sport. However, the Jayhawks showcase a pair of glaring weaknesses.

Although Kansas is surrendering 32.2% clip from behind the arc, it’s yielding the 93rd-highest 3-point scoring rate. The latter metric portrays the potential for negative regression, which has ensued in Big 12 play. Over the last two games, the Jayhawks have allowed opponents to shoot 46.0% from distance.

Enter West Virginia, hitting just 25.0% of their 3-point attempts versus conference foes. Sure, the Mountaineers have scuffled with their offensive spacing in half-court sets. But if they’re able to manufacture open looks in transition, they’re due for positive variance — especially against this defense.

Those looks should also present themselves if Bob Huggins’ unit can play inside-out. While Bill Self has adjusted offensively without a traditional back-to-the-basket center, the Jayhawks’ post-up defense ranks No. 244 within ShotQuality PPP.

WVU plays through the paint at an above-average rate. Assuming Tre Mitchell and Jimmy Bell establish themselves on the block, Erik Stevenson and the rest of the Mountaineers marksmen should reap the benefits.

Related: 2023 March Madness Futures Odds

College Basketball Best Bets Conclusion

I bet West Virginia +2, which you’ll also find in our aforementioned Discord betting channel. I’d play it down to +1.5, but factor in a smaller edge. Good luck with your own college basketball best bets.

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