There are only four ranked teams on Monday’s college hoops schedule, but three of them are a part of Big Monday. Let’s break down my college basketball best bets — with Virginia at No. 7 Duke and No. 8 Kansas at No. 20 Texas.
Some of these angles stem from situational spots, including bounce-back, letdown, look-ahead or revenge opportunities. Click on the odds below to place a bet.
You can even continue the discussion in our Discord betting community, as we dissect all of the games throughout the day, and stay up-to-date on all of the top programs with my college basketball power rankings.
Virginia Cavaliers at Duke Blue Devils
Considering Duke is coming off consecutive double-digit wins at Notre Dame and North Carolina, this spread is a bit inflated — especially in a potential letdown spot.
Mike Krzyzewski’s unit will be going up against an improving Virginia defense, surrendering 0.98 points per possession (PPP) over its last four games. Tony Bennett’s pack-line setup limits dribble penetration in particular, and the Blue Devils attack the paint at the third-highest frequency in the ACC (via ShotQuality).
While Duke freshman wing A.J. Griffin is spacing the floor at a 50.0% clip, expect the Blue Devils’ offense to be held in check as a whole.
Moreover, ShotQuality notes that Duke is outperforming its metrics by three wins, proving that there’s likely negative regression in store. Keep in mind, the Blue Devils are allowing the lowest conference’s perimeter clip (28.0%) despite letting up open 3-pointers on 44.0% of their opponents’ attempts.
If Kihei Clark & Co. deliver some level of efficiency in that department, the ‘Hoos will hang within a few possessions.
Eli’s College Basketball Best Bets: Virginia +11.5 (-110)
Best Available Line: Virginia
Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns
Speaking of shooting regression, Kansas is yielding the Big 12’s lowest 3-point clip (27.6%). Despite waxing Baylor over the weekend, Scott Drew’s bunch was clearly out of sync offensively.
Enter Texas, which is tallying the conference’s third-highest perimeter scoring rate. The Longhorns are steady in the halfcourt, and — unlike Texas Tech — the Jayhawks don’t possess the length to force takeaways. In turn, Texas should see its fair share of open looks from behind the arc while Kansas won’t be able to thrive in transition.
Plus, the Jayhawks will often face Chris Beard’s no-middle scheme if the Longhorns have success playing at their preferred, slower tempo. That should limit Bill Self’s creativity in generating clean attempts for Ochai Agbaji, along with Texas’ ball pressure producing Kansas’ own turnover issues.
Although the Longhorns haven’t racked up a signature win under Beard, that narrative will be erased in a motivational spot. The value has also increased after the line opened with the Longhorns as a one-point home favorite.
Eli’s College Basketball Best Bets: Texas +1.5 (-110)
Best Available Line: Texas