Sunday College Basketball Best Bets: Will Purdue Upset Duke?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on November 27, 2022
College Basketball Best Bets

Although many bettors are focusing on NFL Week 12 odds, Sunday’s college basketball odds board is loaded with intriguing matchups. Let’s break down No. 8 Duke against No. 24 Purdue in the 2022 PK85 Legacy title game for my college basketball best bets.

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Duke vs. Purdue: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Both programs find themselves in my college basketball power rankings, but there’s a clear separation despite the narrow point spread. Subscribe to the Outside Shots podcast, as Scott Phillips and I dig into everything college hoops betting.

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Will Boilermakers’ Luck Reverse Course?

This headline will undoubtedly produce some eye rolls. But Purdue has certainly been fortunate in its last two games — with the Gonzaga and West Virginia shooting a combined 28.0% from behind the arc. Matt Painter’s team subsequently took advantage in transition, as well as via his motion structure.

The most vulnerable aspect of the Boilermakers’ defense comes against post ups, ranking No. 194 in ShotQuality‘s efficiency metric. That may appear surprising with the 7-foot-4 Zach Edey in the middle, yet the rest of their small-ball lineup isn’t built to handle another interior presence.

While the Blue Devils don’t run an extensive amount of their action through the low block, John Scheyer has already demonstrated his prowess for attacking mismatches.

Look for the 7-foot freshman Kyle Filipowski to exploit it early on, opening up the rest of the floor. If Duke’s perimeter offense undergoes positive regression, with fellow five-stars Dariq Whitehead and Tyrese Proctor off to an uninspiring start, it won’t allow Purdue to employ its fast-break offense nearly as often.

Related: 2023 March Madness Futures Odds

Can Blue Devils Contain Edey?

The Boilermakers’ youthful backcourt tandem of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer have exceeded expectations, yet Edey’s paint touches are what stir the drink. In fact, the junior center has accrued 18th-most fouls drawn per 40 minutes in I Division I.

He’ll match up against the 7-foot-1 Dereck Lively, who’s impressed with his interior defense to date. But Lively has seen limited action while working his way back from a calf injury. He’s prone to foul trouble, too, and Filipowski isn’t as well-built to handle Edey’s physicality.

Whether or not Jeremy Roach & Co. disrupt the entry passes for Edey will likely determine the overall efficiency of Painter’s scheme.

College Basketball Best Bets Conclusion

Ultimately, both defenses provide a stiff test for the opposition. Plus, Scheyer has decelerated Duke’s pace from the Mike Krzyzewski era, placing No. 263 in average possession length thus far (per KenPom). Hence, possessions should be at a premium, especially since Purdue operates with a similar mindset.

I backed the under, which you’ll find in our aforementioned Discord betting channel. Good luck with your own college basketball best bets for Duke – Purdue.

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