Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets: Duke vs. Kansas, Alabama at USA

Written By Eli Hershkovich on November 15, 2022 - Last Updated on November 16, 2022
College Basketball Best Bets

We finally have another loaded college basketball odds board, including the Champions Classic — with Kentucky versus Michigan State and Duke against Kansas. Let’s dig into my college basketball best bets for Tuesday’s slate. Join our Discord betting channel (under the #roles server) and receive an immediate notification from Discord when I make a bet.

Click on any of the odds below to place a wager as well.

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Duke vs. Kansas: Spread, Moneyline, Total

These two teams are neck and neck in my college basketball power rankings, so how should you approach the second leg of the Champions Classic? Scott Phillips and I dissected this matchup, along with aforementioned Kentucky against MSU, on the Outside Shots podcast.

Blue Devils’ Matchup Advantages

My numbers made this spread Duke -1, and the initial line movement towards Kansas offered the opportunity to grab +2. If you missed that bet, be sure to subscribe to our Discord channel.

After losing Mike Krzyzewski to retirement, his heir apparent Jon Scheyer has already made a handful of impressive in-game adjustments. The Blue Devils’ four-out, one-in offense possesses a size edge in the frontcourt — whether or not five-star freshman Dereck Lively sees his minutes increase. Mind you, he’s still working his way back from a calf injury.

Even if Norm Roberts, who’s filling in for the suspended Bill Self, starts 6-foot-11 Ernest Udeh to counter Duke’s length, he’s a raw low-post defender who may struggle to contain Ryan Young’s veteran touch. The athleticism of Lively or fellow newcomer Kyle Filipowski is a tall task, too.

Granted, the Jayhawks’ ball-screen offense could exploit the youthful Blue Devils in their own right. Despite Scheyer’s budding offense, we’ve seem them struggle against that type of action.

However, Jeremy Roach has developed into a one of the better two-way points guards across Division I. If he’s able to help stymie DeJuan Harris and Joseph Yesufu’s respective dribble penetration, Kansas won’t generate nearly as many clean looks.

Assuming Roach does his job, Duke’s transition offense would reap the benefits. These looks should come via its mismatch on the glass as well.

This area represents one that plagued the Jayhawks last season. Although Kevin McCullar (Texas Tech) adds more of a defensive presence, he won’t mask Kansas’ collective vulnerability.

College Basketball Best Bets Conclusion

If you didn’t nab the Blue Devils at a pick’em or better, try to live bet this game. There’s also a chance that you’ll get a better number than I did with this approach versus the defending champion Jayhawks.

Note: Neither Zach Clemence (nose) nor five-star freshman MJ Rice (illness) will suit up for Kansas.

Related: Eli’s Favorite National Title Futures Bet

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Alabama at South Alabama: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Admittedly, I was absolutely on the wrong side of the Crimson Tide’s contest against Liberty on Friday. So why am I going back to the well and fading Nate Oats’ unit for a second time?

Trust Richie Riley

Trends don’t always showcase the entire story, as they occasionally misrepresent the current state of a team or the betting market. However, neither are the case this time around for Riley — South Alabama’s coach — who is 22-8 against the spread as an underdog.

The Jaguars only returned 31.5% of their minutes from 2021-22, but they still boast their fair share of veteran talent, including Isaiah Moore (Division II), ex-TCU center Kevin Samuel, and VMI transfer Greg Parham. They’re coming off a loss at New Mexico, too, making them slightly undervalued in the market.

USA has operated at a below-average Adjusted Tempo in Riley’s tenure (via KenPom). Its ability to juxtapose Oats’ fast-paced attack is an alluring variable towards slowing the game down and hanging within four possessions — at the least.

Moreover, Alabama will be without wings Dom Welch (lower-body injury) and Darius Miles (foot), who create havoc at both ends of the court. The Tide should also see a bit of perimeter shooting regression after going 10-22 (45.5%) against the Flames’ pack-line setup, which is more susceptible in that regard.

Riley is known for his press-oriented defensive scheme. I’d expect more of the same if the Jaguars’ offense is efficient enough.

College Basketball Best Bets Conclusion

As of Tuesday morning, Jaguars +12 was available via Caesars Sportsbook. I’d still play it down to +11.5.

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