Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets: Will Florida State Hang With No. 6 Duke?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on January 18, 2022
College Basketball Best Bets

After a smaller Monday slate of games, Tuesday’s college basketball schedule presents bettors with plenty of promising matchups and situational spots. These circumstances are directed by bounce-back, letdown, look-ahead or revenge opportunities. Here’s a look at my college basketball best bets — highlighted by an ACC clash between No. 6 Duke and Florida State.

Click on the odds below to place a wager.

In this COVID era, some of these bets are contingent on the betting market and player availability, so be sure to check back and follow me on Twitter for the latest. You can also continue the discussion in our Discord betting community, as we dissect all of the games throughout the week.

St. Bonaventure Bonnies at Dayton Flyers

Not only are the Flyers overvalued in the market, but the Bonnies are also set up is control this contest at the defensive end.

Anthony Grant’s crew, led by point guard Malachai Smith, is reliant on attacking the rim in half-court sets. Nevertheless, St. Bonaventure possesses a top-40 post-up defense (per Shot Quality) while protecting the paint well against the dribble drive. Osun Osunniyi’s shot-blocking presence is the key behind Mark Schmidt’s pack-line scheme, which revolves around limiting dribble penetration.

Plus, Dayton operates at a slow pace, minimizing the impact on Schmidt’s short rotation. I make the Bonnies a small favorite, and I’ll be taking the points.

Eli’s Bet: St. Bonaventure +1.5 (placed on Tuesday afternoon at DraftKings Sportsbook)
College Basketball Best Bets: St. Bonaventure +1 or better
Best Available Line: St. Bonaventure

Duke Blue Devils at Florida State Seminoles

From an injury perspective, the Seminoles will likely be without Malik Osborne (ankle), their top rebounder and second-leading scorer. Although this news is baked into the number, we could see a slight overreaction in the market if Osborne is officially inactive.

Matchup wise, the Blue Devils (No. 5 in my college basketball power rankings) boast the conference’s premier defense. But Mike Krzyzewski’s unit is receiving some shooting luck, as 40.0% of its opponents’ perimeter shots have been left open (via ShotQuality).

On the flip side, FSU owns a top-100 shooting clip from behind the arc (34.9%). If the Seminoles have success speeding up the tempo, look for them to generate clean 3-pointers. On top of that, the Blue Devils’ transition defense has struggled to defend the paint — another area of efficiency for Leonard Hamilton’s squad.

Keep in mind, Duke’s offense dealt with turnover issues when facing ball pressure. That’s a strength of Hamilton’s bunch, which will benefit his team on the other side of the floor.

Expect the home underdog to hang within a couple of possessions, but let’s see if a better number becomes available.

Eli’s Bet: Florida State +5 (placed on Tuesday night at PointsBet Sportsbook)
College Basketball Best Bets: FSU +5 or better
Best Available Line:FSU

  • 2022 March Madness Odds

Wisconsin Badgers at Northwestern Wildcats

A bet on Northwestern is contingent on Pete Nance (ankle) suiting up. The Wildcats’ leading-scorer missed Saturday’s win at Michigan State, and he’s expected to be a game-time decision.

Despite the Badgers riding high on a six-game winning streak, this game represents a potential look-ahead spot with the Spartans on deck.

Moreover, as much praise as Wooden Award favorite Johnny Davis (+400) is receiving, his team is surrendering 1.07 transition points per possession — good for a bottom-55 ranking across Division I. Boo Buie & Co. are at their best when playing at a quicker pace, and they clean up the glass defensively in order to do just that.

Eli’s Bet: Northwestern +3 (placed on Tuesday night at PointsBet Sportsbook)
College Basketball Best Bets: Northwestern +3 or better
Best Available Line: Northwestern

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Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

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