Thursday College Basketball Best Bets: Will Creighton Upset Texas?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on December 1, 2022
College Basketball Best Bets

While Thursday’s college basketball odds board doesn’t showcase a jam-packed slate, it includes a top-10 matchup in Austin, Texas. Let’s hit on my college basketball best bets for the No. 7 Creighton Bluejays at the No. 2 Texas Longhorns.

Join our Discord betting channel (under the #roles server) and get an immediate alert for whenever I make a bet. Click on any of the odds below to place a wager as well.

Creighton at Texas: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Both teams finds themselves in my college basketball power rankings. Subscribe to Outside Shots on TheLines Podcast Network, as Scott Phillips and I dissect everything college hoops betting, including this contest.

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Longhorns’ Mismatches — At Both Ends

Betting a top-10 program as an underdog always seems to be a layup. But that doesn’t mean you should go that route.

For starters, Chris Beard runs a no-middle defense, taking away driving lanes and cutting opportunities. It does allow for some open perimeter looks, and the Bluejays boast a 38.2% clip from distance. However, their offense also utilizes pick-and-rolls sets at the sixth-highest rate in the country (per ShotQuality).

Anticipate the Longhorns’ top-rated defensive unit to trap instantaneously, forcing indecisive passes and their fair share of takeaways. Creighton has cleaned up its miscues a bit from last season, as sophomore point guard Ryan Nembhard is operating at a more efficient pace. However, Greg McDermott’s crew still wound up with a combined 30 turnovers against Arkansas and Texas Tech’s ball pressure in the Maui Invitational.

Related: 2023 March Madness Futures Odds

On the other side of the court, Texas employs a motion offense. These sets incorporate a high percentage of cuts, which the Bluejays aren’t proficient at hindering.

They’re failing to contest catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, too. Granted, the Longhorns are shooting just 30.2% from behind the arc. Nevertheless, Marcus Carr, Tyrese Hunter & Co. are most efficient in those situations.

Contrary to Beard’s habitual philosophy, the Longhorns play uptempo, ranking No. 32 in average possession length (per KenPom). They’ll be positioned to ramp up the pace if their defense exploits McDermott’s floor-spacing attack.

College Basketball Best Bets Conclusion

Monitor our Discord betting channel to see if I add any live bets. I’ll be looking for the Longhorns under two possessions, assuming the game script unfolds like I expect. Good luck with your own college basketball wagers.

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