College Basketball Best Bets: Why I Will Sell High On Saint Mary’s, Buy Low On Yale

Written By Eli Hershkovich on December 28, 2021 - Last Updated on December 29, 2021
College Basketball Best Bets

Despite another slow night of hoops, the best game on Tuesday’s college basketball schedule resides in Moraga, California between Saint Mary’s and Yale. Here’s a deep-dive of my college basketball best bets for this matchup.

Click on the odds below to place a bet now. You can continue the discussion in our betting community, as we dissect all of the games throughout the week.

Yale Bulldogs at Saint Mary’s Gaels

Randy Bennett’s bunch slots in at No. 40 in my college basketball rankings, and the Gaels could be en route for a Cinderella run come March Madness. But that doesn’t mean they’re undervalued against the Bulldogs.

Yale was the preseason Ivy League favorite, yet James Jones’ team has underachieved with a 4-8 record against the spread. Its shooting woes represent a major reason why, slotting in at No. 187 in three-point percentage (33.3%) against the average opponent. So from a betting market standpoint, it’s a buy-low opportunity.

Although Saint Mary’s is yielding the 10th-fewest perimeter attempts per contest, the Gaels have been exposed from distance when their opponent ramps up the pace.

Yale point guard Azar Swain & Co. are averaging 17.2 seconds per possession — an above-average standing. In order for them to play at their desired tempo, their interior defense must continue to stand tall against a Saint Mary’s offense that runs through the low-post. It’s generating the fourth-highest near-proximity scoring rate (lay-ups, dunks and tip-ins via Haslametrics).

If the Bulldogs minimize the Gaels’ paint touches, they should accrue positive shooting luck in transition. Swain (32.2%) and forward Matthue Cotton (31.2%) are more consistent long-range threats than they’ve demonstrated thus far.

Let’s sell high on Saint Mary’s while getting four possessions in the process. Yale’s rust could be an issue with two weeks off, but there’s still enough value.

Eli’s Bet: Yale +13 (placed at PointsBet Sportsbook on Monday evening)
College Basketball Best Bets: Yale +12 or better
Best Available Line: Yale

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Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

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