Monday College Basketball Best Bets: New-Look Butler Undervalued?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on November 14, 2022 - Last Updated on November 15, 2022
College Basketball Best Bets

After a profitable week on the college basketball odds board, let’s dissect my college basketball best bets for Monday’s slate. Join our Discord betting channel (under the #roles server) and receive an immediate notification from Discord when I make a bet.

Click on any of the odds below to place a wager as well.

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Butler at Penn State: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Neither of these teams show up in my college basketball power rankings, yet they both present intriguing rosters in the 2022-23 campaign — especially the Bulldogs in what appears to be a wide-open Big East. So how should you approach this matchup?

Where Is Butler’s Upper Hand?

Thad Matta, who unretired after 17 seasons on the job, operates a four-out, one-in offense — with NC State transfer Manny Bates manning the middle. With fellow newcomers Ali Ali (nose) and Jalen Thomas (blood clots) on the sidelines, sophomore forward Simas Lukosius provides inconsistent perimeter shooting in the meantime.

Moreover, Matta’s motion offense presents some potential advantages against Micah Shrewsberry’s man-to-man scheme.

Penn State doesn’t have the length or physicality to match up with Bates in the low-post. The 6-foot-11, 240-pound big certainly won’t be as efficient as his season debut against New Orleans (25 points on 12-of-15 shooting). But he offers Matta an obvious half-court mismatch against the Nittany Lions’ smaller frontcourt.

Shrewsberry’s unit has also scuffled while defending cuts and catch-and-shoot 3s in his season-plus at the helm (per ShotQuality). Although his lineup showcases a pair of fresh faces, his defensive setup is generally susceptible to that type of action.

Mind you, there isn’t any sort of a sample size to determine whether this group is well-suited for Matta’s structure in the long-term. For one, he’ll need Chuck Harris to revert to his 3-point efficiency from his freshman campaign.

However, the 9.5-point opening spread was a big enough edge to make this bet worthwhile. It’ll require a hot start from Bates, which would theoretically open up the rest of the floor.

For additional college basketball best bets, listen to the brand-new Outside Shots podcast.

College Basketball Best Bets Conclusion

If you aren’t a member of our aforementioned Discord channel and failed to grab +9.5, I’d wait to live bet this one.

Penn State’s own floor-spacing could give Butler’s defense problems. Therefore, you may find an even better in-game spread if the Bulldogs start out slow with its uptempo attack on opening night of the Gavitt Games.

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