Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets: Arkansas Letdown vs. LSU?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on March 2, 2022 - Last Updated on March 3, 2022
College Basketball Best Bets

Within Tuesday’s 40-game college hoops slate, there’s a situational spot worth targeting in the SEC. Let’s dive into my college basketball best bets for LSU at No. 14 Arkansas.

Click on the odds below to place a bet, and continue the discussion in our Discord betting community, as we dissect the biggest games of the day. Stay up-to-date on the top-68 programs with my college basketball power rankings.

  • All of Eli’s College Basketball Bets

LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks

The Razorbacks are coming off a trio of victories over Kentucky, Florida and Tennessee while winning 13 of their last 14 games. Not only is this spread inflated because of that, but Will Wade’s crew will also be seeking revenge after falling to the Hogs at home on Jan. 15.

In that contest, the Tigers were without senior point guard Xavier Pinson, who’s generating the 45th-highest assist rate across Division I. His experience is a key versus Arkansas’ ball pressure, which forced 16 turnovers the first time around.

Nevertheless, I’d normally have a hard time backing LSU against a team that doesn’t accumulate many mistakes. The Tigers’ offense is fairly pedestrian when they’re not flying around in transition via the third-highest opponents’ turnover rate in the country.

But LSU’s triple-switching defense surprisingly tallied 19 takeaways of its own. In a potential letdown spot for the Hogs, Pinson & Co. could be in position to take advantage of a flat bunch in the early goings.

The Hogs’ perimeter defense should be in for some negative regression too, as they’re surrendering the lowest 3-point clip in SEC play (28.7%). If the Tigers’ attack is able to push the pace, it should see some open looks from distance.

Moreover, Arkansas struggles to clean up the defensive glass against more sizable lineups. Kentucky and Auburn combined for 40 offensive rebounds in their recent meetings, and LSU’s lengthy frontcourt is known for accruing second-chance shots. If the Tigers convert on those, that would in turn limit the Hogs’ transition opportunities.

Although I’m high on Arkansas’ March Madness odds, expect LSU to at least hang within a couple of possessions.

Eli’s College Basketball Best Bets: LSU +5.5 (-106)
Best Available Line: LSU

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Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich