Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets: Is Arizona Overvalued Vs. San Diego State?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on November 22, 2022 - Last Updated on November 23, 2022
College Basketball Best Bets

Although Arkansas-Creighton is the headliner on Tuesday’s college basketball odds board, another intriguing matchup follows suit in the 2022 Maui Jim Maui Invitational. Let’s dissect my college basketball best bets for No. 14 Arizona versus No. 17 San Diego State.

Join our Discord betting channel (under the #roles server) and receive an instant notification for whenever I make a bet. Click on any of the odds below to place a wager as well.

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Arizona vs. San Diego State: Spread, Moneyline, Total

If you’ve been monitoring my college basketball power rankings, you’ve seen that these programs are positioned slightly differently than what the latest AP Top 25 poll showcases. Subscribe to the Outside Shots podcast, as Scott Phillips and I dig into all of the upcoming holiday action, including this game.

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Will Aztecs Decelerate Wildcats?

Even mentioning this notion sounds insane on the surface. Keep in mind, Arizona sits atop KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo metric. This category accounts for an estimate of the tempo (possessions per 40 minutes) a team would accrue versus an opponent that plays at an average Division I pace.

However, San Diego State’s resistance at that of the floor is difficult to upend. Not only do the Aztecs boast a top-55 ShotQuality transition defense, but they’re also proficient at tallying takeaways. That doesn’t produce a positive forecast the Wildcats, which already slot in at No. 287 in turnover percentage.

This ranking isn’t a credit to a small sample size, either. Arizona finished below average in that department a season ago. The Wildcats lost Wooden All-American Bennedict Mathurin, their most trustworthy ball handler, to the NBA as well.

Moreover, the Aztecs’ pack-line structure is built to shut down Tommy Lloyd’s motion offense. Brian Dutcher’s crew may not be at its peak form quite yet, but San Diego State forces opponents to manufacture mostly isolation scoring when it’s at its best.

Related: 2023 March Madness Futures Odds

Dutcher’s Explosive Offense

When the 2020 NCAA Tournament was cancelled, San Diego State was set up to earn a No. 2 seed in the Big Dance. That wasn’t solely because of its elite defense, as Malachi Flynn & Co. also notched the fifth-highest Offensive Efficiency.

This bunch presents much more firepower, though. That’s highlighted by the addition of Seattle transfer Darrion Trammel, who gifts Dutcher with another first-class distributor alongside Matt Bradley.

Assuming the Aztecs can take advantage of the Wildcats’ turnover concerns, their fast-break offense should reap the benefits. Arizona is no slouch defensively, but it’s still exploitable via off-the-dribble 3-pointers. Whether they come from the likes of Trammel, Bradley, or Lamont Butler, San Diego State possesses a bevy of sharpshooters.

College Basketball Best Bets Conclusion

If you couldn’t tell, I bet the Aztecs as a small underdog, which you’ll find in our aforementioned Discord betting channel. Despite Arizona’s stellar showing on Monday (albeit succumbing to Cincinnati’s backdoor cover), the market is a bit too high on Lloyd’s team.

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