College Baseball Super Regional Odds: Can Anyone Topple Tennessee, Texas A&M?

, ,
Written By Brett Gibbons | Last Updated
super regionals odds

A wild weekend in the NCAA Baseball Tournament has come to a close. Just 16 teams survive with eight coveted berths to the College World Series on the line. Welcome to college baseball’s most exciting weekend: the Super Regionals. Odds to win each Super Regional are up at most major sportsbooks, with individual game prices to follow.

Last round, we were treated to eight walk-offs, including a record six on Day 1 alone. While 10 Regional hosts advanced, five No. 3 seeds and even No. 4 seed Evansville – who was priced at +1200 to win the Greenville Regional – moved on. Despite a stacked lineup including Duke and Wake Forest, zero No. 2 seeds advanced to the Super Regionals.

All remaining teams play a best-of-three series to punch their ticket to Omaha. Super Regionals produce some of the most explosive environments in college baseball, making this round appointment television for baseball fans. Check out College World Series odds here.

2024 NCAA Super Regional Odds

Click on odds anywhere in the table below to place a bet. Flip between Super Regional odds for all eight series by clicking on the tabs.

Knoxville
Lexington
Bryan-College Station
Chapel Hill
Charlottesville
Clemson
Athens
Tallahassee

Knoxville

No surprise here. The No. 1 overall seed Tennessee Volunteers are heavy favorites in Super Regional odds to topple red-hot Evansville. Including a 3-0 showing in the Regionals, the Vols are 38-3 in Knoxville this season. Notably, 18 of the last 24 College World Series winners – and each of the last five – went 3-0 in their respective Regionals. However, a No. 1 overall seed hasn’t won the CWS since 1999 and only two others even made the finals.

Tennessee watched their dreams of Omaha dissolve as the No. 1 overall seed in 2022, losing to No. 2 seed Notre Dame in the Supers. While hot, Evansville has the second-worst field independent pitching (FIP) of the remaining teams (NC State). Aside from a strong 4-1 opening game victory over East Carolina, the Purple Aces surrendered 11, 19, and 5 runs to close the pod out.

Prices vary heavily for this Super Regional. With a zero hold between the best prices for both teams, using a free bet on Evansville could yield worse results. However, Tennessee should walk through to Omaha.

  • No bet.

Lexington

Since last winning the College World Series in 2018, Oregon State made one Super Regional – one they lost to Auburn at home. This year, they pack a punch both on the mound and at the plate. Of the remaining teams, Oregon State ranks fourth in both weighted on-base average (wOBA) and wRC+. Ahead of them stands Tennessee, Virginia, and Georgia.

But they didn’t face a set of arms like Kentucky in the last round. The Wildcats stifled opponents, holding Illinois and Indiana State to a single combined run in the two closeout games. They did so effortlessly, too. Only three relief pitches had to come in for those two games, throwing a combined five innings. While the Beavers should force more innings from the bullpen with better bats, Kentucky’s starting pitching was nails last weekend.

That said, prices on Oregon State vary wildly. Depending on which way you lean, there’s value to be had both ways. Given that you can find Oregon State on both sides of even, I’m taking a shot at their best price.

Bryan-College Station

Aside from an 11-inning thriller against soon-to-be conference rival Texas, the Aggies made the opening round of the NCAA Baseball Tournament look easy. Even in that extra-inning effort, Texas A&M used just one bullpen pitcher (closer Evan Aschenbeck, 4.2 IP). For fans of offense, this might not be the Super Regional for you.

Oregon’s pitching staff was one of the best units in the Regionals. They held all three opponents under five runs and stifled their final two opponents (UCSB, San Diego) to a single combined run. The Ducks will need to find their bats against the Aggies, however. Getting into a pitching duel is likely not the route Oregon wants to take, as Texas A&M, top to bottom, has more talented hitters.

Another thing going for A&M is the first-pitch times. Saturday’s Game 1 begins at 1:00 p.m. local time, right in the middle of a day forecast to have a high of 96º. Sunday’s Game 2 begins at 6:30, right after peak heating, a day forecast to be 95º. Welcome to playoff baseball in College Station, Texas.

  • No bet.

Chapel Hill

For a few innings, LSU fans were pulling up tickets to Alex Box Stadium. But North Carolina, led by heroics from second baseman Alex Madera, nudged out a 4-3 win over LSU in a winner-take-all Game 7. Metrically, LSU is a tougher opponent than West Virginia. But the Mountaineers are currently on fire, rolling through a wide-open Tucson Regional in three games.

The Tar Heels go into this Super as a steady favorite (-220). Top to bottom, they have the superior pitching staff and an a star closer in Dalton Pence. UNC also has one of the best home records in the nation at 35-3; that home-field advantage was on full display, fending off a fiercely passionate and well-represented LSU fanbase. Given the regionality of West Virginia, the Mountaineers should also be well represented.

The past few years, a team from the Big 12 catches fire in the postseason (TCU in 2023, Oklahoma in 2022). However, I’m going with the other Big 12 team this time around.

  • No bet.

Charlottesville

Virginia fended off a competitive Mississippi State team in the Regional, sweeping the round 3-0. While the Hoos are known for having a lethal batting order, it was the pitching staff that stepped up. Virginia surrendered eight total runs, never more than four in a single game. A lucky break, they host the Super Regional to try and extend a 29-7 home record thanks to Arkansas being upended in the opening round.

UVA has to bring the same pitching dominance they offered last round. Kansas State cruised through the Fayetteville Regional, putting up 33 runs in three games (19 in the opening game!). Perhaps most impressively, they forced ace Hagen Smith into a season-worst six earned runs. The question for the Wildcats comes in the pitching staff. It’s a good, but not great, unit, ranking the fifth-worst among remaining teams in FIP.

So, unlike the College Station Super Regional, this is your series if you enjoy runs. Higher scoring could mean higher variance, making this an interesting Super to watch.

  • No bet.

Clemson

Clemson was four outs away from going winless in its own Regional. It took a one-out walk-off to fend off High Point and a one-out sac-fly in T9 to beat Coastal Carolina the first time. Despite just four runs in each of their first two games, the Tigers’ lineup always seemed to threaten opposing pitchers. Against the rotation of Florida, that threat will need to continue.

Florida benefitted from a stellar two-game pitching performance to beat host Oklahoma State twice to win the Stillwater Regional. The team, just barely above .500, is quieting criticisms made that they were undeserving to be in the Field of 64 to begin. However, the Gators did benefit from playing two extremely flawed teams in the Pokes and Nebraska. Clemson is a massive step up in competition.

You can find the Tigers priced anywhere between -165 and -200. The star power of Jac Caglianone and brand recognition should keep Florida a popular pick. That, to me, creates value for the home team, Clemson.

Athens

Did you get in on Georgia futures? Charlie Condon and crew sure look like a team capable of making a run this postseason. Late-game pitching made things interesting against both Army and Georgia Tech. Not having “that closer” is certainly worth noting, but in elimination games, coaches will send their starting ace in to get the job done. Kolten Smith (7-0, 2.33 ERA) is certainly ace material.

NC State swept its pod last round, beating an impressive 2-3 seed combo of South Carolina and James Madison. Pitching is still a concern for the Wolfpack, especially when it comes to giving up power hits. That was on display last round against Cole Messina and the Gamecocks. Now, they go against baseball’s most dangerous hitter. The Wolfpack carries the worst FIP of the remaining teams by a good distance (6.18).

Georgia is pretty consistently priced at -150 at the time of writing. However, better prices are offered, and I took the price on one of those.

Tallahassee

The discourse after Selection Monday was between region host Oklahoma and region favorite Duke. And then UConn (+750) crashed the party, winning the pod in four games. The Huskies are a dangerous baseball team; there are no two ways about it. It wasn’t just lockdown pitching, either – UConn quietly notched clutch hits time and time again. Perhaps most impressive was the fielding, which closed the door when batters were threatening. In wins, UConn allowed 22 combined hits but held Duke and Oklahoma to one run in each of the three games.

Florida State brings more power to the table than Oklahoma or Duke. Five hitters have 10+ home runs on the season, led by James Tibbs (25). Like UConn, FSU quietly dominated their first round. The Noles extended their home record to an astounding 30-4 on the season. UConn brings a 17-15 road record to the table, a rare above-.500 mark.

Sportsbooks are pretty consistent with their pricing for this series. I see it fairly priced myself. A great watch anyway.

  • No bet.

Best of luck betting Super Regional odds on the road to Omaha!


RELATED ARTICLES