College Baseball: 2023 NCAA Super Regional Odds, Preview

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Written By Brett Gibbons | Last Updated
super regional odds

The field of 64 has been whittled down to just 16 teams remaining. Perhaps the most exciting round, the Super Regionals, begin this weekend with the first games on Friday, June 9. Eight coveted spots in the College World Series are up for grabs and will be filled this weekend. Favorites like No. 1 Wake Forest, second-ranked Florida, and No. 5 LSU look to secure their spot in Omaha while No. 14 Indiana State and unranked Oral Roberts and TCU look to continue their Cinderella bids. Below, we’ll look at Super Regional odds for each series.

College World Series odds have also adjusted after some upsets in the regionals and one change of venue in the Supers.

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Super Regionals Odds

Winston-Salem: No. 16 Alabama at No. 1 Wake Forest

TeamOdds
AlabamaOff The Board
Wake ForestOff The Board

Please note: many states still don’t allow wagering on Alabama baseball following a late-season investigation into “irregular betting” on the Tide.

Wake Forest cruised through the Regional round with one of the largest run differentials in tournament history (+41). Starting pitching for the Demon Deacons allowed a paltry four runs in those three games while the bats scored 16 runs per game, including 21 over No. 2 seed Maryland. Alabama also walked through their region, going 3-0 and easily disposing of No. 2 seed Boston College. The Tide are fourth among the remaining tournament seeds in weighted on-base average (0.434 wOBA), which gives credit for extra-base hits that offer more value than merely reaching base.

However, Wake Forest rosters the best three starters in the nation. In a best-of-three series, that’s a huge advantage. Rhett Lowder (14-0, 1.66 ERA) might be the most automatic win in the tournament and he and Josh Hartle (10-1, 2.33) have combined for 245 strikeouts this season. Sean Sullivan (5-2, 2.61) adds another 101 Ks and none of them have administered more than 20 walks. The depth and talent of their starting rotation is, in short, ridiculous.

Gainesville: No. 15 South Carolina at No. 2 Florida

TeamOdds
Florida-139
South Carolina+115

While on paper Florida might look like a runaway favorite over South Carolina, the Gamecocks swept the Gators in Columbia in late April. South Carolina silenced Florida’s bats, allowing just 10 runs in three games while scoring 13 in Game 1 alone. Granted, this is a different weekend and the series returns to Gainesville.

First baseman Jac Caglianone led the SEC in home runs with 31 this year, also a Florida program record. One of those came against South Carolina, but the sophomore notched just three hits in that series. As a team, the Gators boast the second-best wOBA (.454), but the Gamecocks don’t fall far behind (.448). They’re a match on the mound, too, besting UF in fielding-independent pitching (FIP).

South Carolina has a decent three-deep in starting pitchers, but their real strength lies in the depth of their bullpen. While that might be a big asset in the College World Series (a longer double-elimination tournament), the name of the game in the Supers is starting pitching. Florida rosters a better three-man rotation on paper, but the Gamecocks showed they match up well against those arms. There’s a reason the Gators are only -139 to win the series (58.2% implied win rate).

Fort Worth: No. 14 Indiana State at TCU

TeamOdds
TCU-164
Indiana State+135

The TCU Horned Frogs are the nation’s hottest team. In May, the team stood 25-21 and in danger of not making the tournament field. Since then, they’ve ripped off 15 wins in their last 16 games, including a Big 12 Championship and victory in the Fayetteville Regional. Indiana State is unable to host the Super Regional due to a prior commitment with the Indiana Special Olympics. The series moves to Fort Worth.

That move gives a sizable home field boost to the Horned Frogs, who can field some unfriendly environments at Lupton Stadium. TCU jumped from 36th to 24th in RPI in the Regional Round and their odds to win the College World Series dropped from 60-1 to 12-1 – both the largest moves in the tournament field. It may be misleading to look at season-long metrics; instead, recent performance is a better indictor of what to expect from TCU.

The Frogs finally parsed out a comprehensive starting rotation – long their Achilles heel this year – and the bats are hot. They face an Indiana State team with a strong three-man starting rotation between Connor Fenlong (10-2, 3.33 ERA), Matt Jachec (7-3, 4.02), and Lane Miller (7-0, 2.77). Fenlong alone has four complete game shutouts this season and Jachec has one of his own. The ability for their starters to go the length is critical as to keep the bullpen fresh now and in a potential CWS bid.

Hattiesburg: Tennessee at Southern Miss

TeamOdds
Tennessee-141
Southern Miss+116

Southern Miss was awarded hosting duties by the NCAA to the dismay of Tennessee. The Vols rank higher than the Golden Eagles in RPI, which was the chief tool in seeding and placing teams this tournament. Like with TCU, Southern Miss boasts a healthy home field advantage.

Neither Tennessee nor Southern Miss broke much of a sweat in their regional tournaments, both going 3-0 and pulling a favorable draw. For Tennessee, they handled Clemson just once (in a 6-5 extra-inning victory). Southern Miss played regional 4-seed Penn twice and regional 3-seed Samford once, winning comfortably in all three games.

Despite posting a 41-19 record, the Vols felt like a potential inbound disappointment after being favorites to win the CWS in the preseason. Their dynamic pitching rotation of Chase Dollander, Chase Burns, and Drew Beam seemingly fell shy of lofty expectations set from last season. However, those three combined for 283 strikeouts this season and the Vols have the best FIP in the field (3.87) behind Wake Forest. While the “feel” is that Tennessee disappointed, the numbers don’t match the narrative.

One narrative-based piece to keep on the radar: Southern Miss’ coach Scott Berry is retiring at the end of the year after racking up 500 career wins. Given this Super Regional is in Hattiesburg (potentially linked? Who’s to say.), Southern Miss may have one of the strongest home field advantages this round.

Baton Rouge: No. 12 Kentucky at No. 5 LSU

TeamOdds
LSU-218
Kentucky+175

You might want to set a reminder for the game times in this one. Kentucky (No. 2 in RPI) visits LSU in a rematch from mid-April where the Tigers took two of three in Baton Rouge. When talking about three-deep starting rotations, LSU has the best individual pitcher, Paul Skenes (11-2, 1.90 ERA), and an ample cast of starters. The concern this postseason has come down to the bullpen, which has been inconsistent at times.

Kentucky rosters a more modest starting lineup, but a deeper and more reliable bullpen. The Wildcats rebounded from an opening game loss to Indiana in the Regional round, winning three straight games and notching their spot in the Super Regional. However, they remain the longest shot to win their Super at +175 (36.4% implied win rate). The deeper LSU’s starters go into the game, the lower that win rate becomes; Kentucky must stay aggressive early and force LSU to head to the bullpen early.

Eugene: Oral Roberts at Oregon

TeamOdds
Oregon-145
Oral Roberts+120

It’s not often we see a Super Regional matchup between two non-regional hosts; this year, we have two of them. Oral Roberts owns the nation’s longest win streak at 21 straight, which included a Summit League championship and victory in the Stillwater Regional. Though an outlier in RPI (62) and strength of schedule (255!), ORU has managed to match every opponent’s style yet. They held Oklahoma State and Dallas Baptist to four and five runs, respectively, but scored 15 in a 27-run shootout with Washington.

Of all the regional round surprises, Oregon may have been the biggest one. They upended Vanderbilt, who had risen to top-three in CWS odds, despite not having a resume of a regional victor. The Pac-12 Champions stands last among the remaining teams in FIP (6.10), fifth-to-last in wOBA (0.393), and is just 26th in RPI, second-worst in the group. And yet, sportsbooks favor the Ducks to reach Omaha this weekend (-145, 59.2%).

Both teams possess the momentum to make a run seen last year from both finalists, Ole Miss and Oklahoma.

Charlottesville: Duke at No. 7 Virginia

TeamOdds
Virginia-189
Duke+155

The good news for Duke: they travel the least distance for their Super Regional and should have a strong fan showing. The bad news for Duke: Virginia is 34-4 at home this season.

Virginia made quick work of their region, which included two games against East Carolina, allowing just five total runs in three games. The Cavaliers are built extremely well for a best-of-three series, rostering four viable starters. Their bullpen holds up their end, too, with just one regular arm posting over a 3.80 ERA. Duke also relies on a deep pitching staff to win games, with their star being lockdown closer James Tallon (11 saves, 1.69 ERA).

Duke handed Virginia two of their four homes losses this season at the end of April. With that experience under their belt, Duke could perhaps be slightly undervalued, where their +155 odds imply just a 39.2% expected win rate.

Stanford: Texas at No. 8 Stanford

TeamOdds
Stanford-117
Texas-105

From one Texas rival to another, Stanford hosts their fourth consecutive Super Regional. Each of the last three times, the Cardinal reached the College World Series.

Sportsbooks project this to be the closest series of the group, giving underdog Texas a 51.2% expected win rate in the series (-105). The Longhorns fumbled away a chance at hosting a regional when they were bounced in two games in the Big 12 Tournament. Despite the poor, short stretch, Texas has the makings of a regional host, this time led by a solid pitching staff. Lucas Gordon (7-1, 2.45 ERA) and Lebarron Johnson Jr. (8-3, 2.62) provide a strong one-two punch and they have enough arms to piece together a third starter.

While season-long, Stanford doesn’t have eye-popping numbers from the mound (their 5.49 FIP is second-worst among the remaining teams), the Cardinal rotation pieced together a solid regional outing in five games. In the clinching game, opener Matt Scott allowed just one run and three relievers held Texas A&M scoreless.


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