College Baseball Bets: NCAA Tournament Regionals Odds

The college baseball NCAA tournament is the unsung hero of June. On Monday, the NCAA Baseball Selection Committee decided the field of 64 and set the stage for the NCAA Regionals. The Tennessee Volunteers took the No. 1 overall seed. They look to break a 25-year streak of top seeds falling short of the title. Shortly after, Caesars Sportsbook released college baseball odds to win each of the 16 regionals.

This opening round of the NCAA tournament is known for chaotic outcomes. Last year, Oral Roberts shocked the college baseball world by making a run as a No. 4 seed to the College World Series. In the last three tournaments, just 62.5% of hosts advanced past their own regional. The chaos opens up the opportunity to make some bets on regional pod winners.

Looking for College World Series odds? There, you’ll also find a brief explainer on how the NCAA baseball tournament works.

College Baseball Regionals Odds

Odds are pulled from Caesars Sportsbook and are accurate as of May 28. Those odds are subject to change and will. Overall seeds are listed below in parentheses.

Knoxville Regional, Tennessee (1)

It’s true, a No. 1 overall seed hasn’t captured a College World Series title since Miami in 1999. Just two top seeds even made the CWS final since then (Texas in 2004 and 2009). But while history isn’t on the Vols’ side, the odds are … at least for this round. Tennessee stands atop every ranking metric – RPI, KPI, DSR, you name it – and for good reason. To make the task of upending Tennessee this round (or even the next) even more insurmountable, the Vols are 35-3 at home this season.

Northern Kentucky secured an auto-bid by winning the Horizon League. Indiana was one of the last four teams – a designation widely assumed to be thanks to having a representative on the selection committee – and sits near the bottom of all non-automatic qualifying teams in RPI, KPI, and DSR ranks.

• No bet.

Lexington Regional, Kentucky (2)

Last year’s RPI sweetheart returned with a vengeance. Kentucky fell to eventual champion LSU in the Super Regionals last year as the No. 12 national seed. Despite a one-and-done showing in the SEC Tournament, the Selection Committee felt the Wildcats deserved the No. 2 overall seed. UK managed to cruise to a 40-14 record this season despite playing the seventh-most difficult schedule nationally.

Indiana State was last year’s darling, securing a Regional host bid. This year, despite looking like a host candidate per RPI, the Sycamores head to Lexington. Other, more updated metrics like KPI and DSR rank Indiana State in the mid-20s. Perhaps with the pressure off, Indiana State can thrive as an upset specialist.

• No bet.

Bryan-College Station Regional, Texas A&M (3)

Looking at the strength of regions, the Bryan-College Station Regional appears to lag. That’s largely thanks to Grambling, which has the lowest average rank among the 64 tournament teams (244.3, per RPI, KPI, DSR). The other teams present quite a test, however.

Texas A&M is the next-highest-ranked team behind Tennessee. At 44-13, A&M plays some of the most complete baseball in the country, producing a 5.16 FIP (sixth-best in the tournament) and a 130 wRC+ (seventh). Only Oregon State and Tennessee can boast the same. The Aggies also produce one of the best home-field advantages in the country at Blue Bell Park.

Regardless of whether you place a bet on this region, you’ll want to watch it. Texas and Texas A&M are bound to produce fireworks in their final season as non-league opponents.

• Brett’s Bet: Texas A&M -180

Chapel Hill Regional, North Carolina (4)

Few tougher one-two punches exist at the top of a regional than this one. Both North Carolina and LSU expect to clean up next round against whoever emerges from Tucson.

Despite a tough stretch in early April that saw the Tigers lose 11 of 14, they’re playing excellent baseball now. LSU won seven straight and nearly closed the year as SEC champions but lost to Tennessee in the final.

Thanks to the name recognition, 2023 banner, and recent form, LSU is helping bettors get a discount on North Carolina. The Tar Heels rank an average of 3.3 among the three systems used here. They also finished a ridiculous 32-2 at home this season against a top-15 slate. So long as the Tigers remain a popular name this round, I’ll be taking UNC.

• Brett’s bet: North Carolina -110

Fayetteville Regional, Arkansas (5)

In the NCAA Tournament, pitching triumphs. Each of the last three CWS winners had elite arms with a top-end ace. Arkansas enters the tournament with the second-best FIP (4.48, behind Arizona) and a legit ace in Hagen Smith (1.48 ERA, 17.5 K/9). Their first-round competition features very average offenses in Louisiana Tech and SEMO State and another bad offense in Kansas State.

Of the last 24 CWS champions, 18 of them went 3-0 in Regional play. For this pod, that’s the stat to watch with the Razorbacks.

• No bet.

Clemson Regional, Clemson (6)

For the second straight year, Clemson pulls a brutal draw in the regional round. Last year, they drew Tennessee as the No. 2. This year, they draw both Vanderbilt (No. 2) and Coastal Carolina (No. 3). In terms of average rank, the Clemson Regional is the third-most difficult pod in the tournament. Vanderbilt will likely be a trendy pick based on brand, but the Commodores have an uncharacteristic below-average pitching rotation this year (6.58 FIP, sixth-worst!).

Notably, Vanderbilt finished with an abysmal 4-12 record on the road.

But instead of opening the door for value on Clemson, the bullish pricing on Vanderbilt actually creates some space for Coastal Carolina. For those looking to back the Chants, this is an opportunity. Coastal doesn’t really falter in any one category – though it doesn’t really excel in any, either – and lands as highly as 19th in KPI. For a No. 3 seed, you could certainly do worse.

• No bet.

Athens Regional, Georgia (7)

You think the Selection Committee knows its history? Georgia and Georgia Tech already have a midweek annual rivalry going, but now it bleeds into the postseason. If you’re only here for the long ball, this is your region. Bulldog phenom Charlie Condon set the all-time home run record for the BBCOR era this season with 35. Tech freshman Drew Burress didn’t fall far behind, knocking 23 of his own. UNC Wilmington has the second-highest wRC+ among the two-seeds.

However, that’s not secret information. Bettors may find inflated totals to bet into here.

• No bet.

Tallahassee Regional, Florida State (8)

The Tallahassee Regional is perhaps the truest regional in the tournament field. Three of the teams come from the Sunshine State and the fourth borders the state. It’s also one of the most difficult pods. Florida State ranks as highly as fourth (DSR), while Alabama annually has one of the most capable teams. UCF made a surprise run to the Big 12 Championship semifinals last weekend before falling short to the eventual winner.

To really cement this as a Pod Of Death, No. 4 seed Stetson is the third-most highly ranked low seed in the field.

With such a wide-open field, I’m looking to the home team with the best all-around resume. However, I’m not counting UCF out, as their odds are likely not reflective of their actual shot to win the group.

• No bet.

Norman Regional, Oklahoma (9)

Oklahoma is one of two regional hosts to be a true underdog in their own group (East Carolina). It’s for good reason, as Duke is the top-ranked No. 2 seed and profiles closer to a host. The Blue Devils average better ranks than the Sooners (13.3 vs. 15.3) and have a better pitching rotation and defense. OU benefited from a weak Big 12, making the conference finals. However, they did so against a litany of bad offenses like TCU and Kansas, only beating those non-tournament teams to reach the final.

Duke is going to be a popular pick. But in this case, it’s grounded in logic.

• No bet.

Raleigh Regional, NC State (10)

NC State went through the wringer this year, playing the third-most difficult schedule nationally. But that wringer isn’t over, as the Wolfpack draw South Carolina as the No. 2 in the group. The Gamecocks won more games (36 vs. 33) despite also playing a top-10 slate this season. Pitching was a major shortcoming for NC State this season, who enters the tournament with the worst FIP among hosts and fourth-worst overall.

James Madison is the lone non-power school to make the postseason in football, basketball, and baseball.

• No bet.

Stillwater Regional, Oklahoma State (11)

Another opportunity arises in the Stillwater Regional. Florida played the No. 1 toughest schedule in the nation this year, barely breaking .500. They were a controversial choice in the field for first-four-out teams like TCU and Cal. Aside from also being represented on the NCAA Selection Committee, Florida drives viewership with two-way star Jac Caglianone. But are the Gators worthy of their short odds?

Oklahoma State and Nebraska both won power conferences. (Note: The Big Ten doesn’t carry the same weight as other power conferences in baseball.) The Pokes finished 21-5 at home this season, a major leg-up since they host this region. Oklahoma State received an odds bump from sharing a pod with Florida, enough for a bet here even after some early movement off +135 at open.

• Brett’s bet: Oklahoma State +120

Charlottesville Regional, Virginia (12)

Virginia benefits from drawing one of the lowest-rated regions in the tournament. No. 3 St. John’s made noise upending Florida to start the year, but the Red Storm have the third-lowest average rank among No. 3 seeds. Virginia themselves have the second-best offense in the tournament (137 wRC+, behind Georgia), but lack in the pitching department.

Mississippi State’s pitching allowed 10 runs just once from April 16 on. That kind of solid pitching can go a long way, but the Bulldogs’ offense was inconsistent at best. In the SEC Tournament, State averaged 3.3 runs; over the last month of play, that number stagnated at 5.7 runs per game. Their 102 wRC+ is average and ties for the worst in the pod.

I’ll take the better offense in Virginia, even with an inconsistent (yet very capable) rotation.

• Brett’s bet: Virginia +105

Tucson Regional, Arizona (13)

Welcome to the most wide-open pod of them all. It’s not just a three-horse race, all four teams are genuinely in consideration for this Super Regional berth. Host Arizona leads all teams in the tournament with a 4.33 FIP, but they average a rank of just 32 across RPI, KPI, and DSR. No. 2 seed Dallas Baptist leads that department at 21.7, while West Virginia doesn’t fall far behind at 36.3.

Without a victory in the Pac-12 Tournament, Arizona is an unlikely host. While home-field advantage certainly helps, it’s wise to consider them more a mid-level No. 2 than a top seed. DBU leads the pod with a 119 wRC+ and a .982 fielding percentage. The Patriots are also mainstays in the NCAA postseason. They’ve clinched a berth in 10 straight tournaments and advanced to the Super Regionals in 2021.

Bet this group at your own peril.

• Brett’s bet: Grand Canyon +850 (flier, .25u)

Santa Barbara Regional, UC Santa Barbara (14)

UC Santa Barbara had sky-high expectations this season, bringing in one of the best and most experienced rotations in the country. The Gauchos met those expectations and then some, hosting their first regional since 2015. But UCSB is no stranger to postseason success, making the College World Series in 2016. To echo an earlier sentiment, pitching triumphs in the postseason.

That’s not to discount a strong field alongside them. San Diego brings in one of the better rotations and defenses with a fairly well-balanced offense. Oregon lands in its fourth straight postseason dating back to 2021. Fresno State, of course, is one of the biggest College World Series longshots ever to win the title.

• No bet.

Corvallis Regional, Oregon State (15)

Plenty of eyes will be on Corvallis for Oregon State star Travis Bazzana. The junior is rated the second-best prospect in the upcoming MLB Draft, behind only Georgia’s Condon. Bazzana (26 HR) faces a stiff slate of opposing arms, particularly UC Irvine. The Anteaters – yes, real team name – bring the sixth-best FIP, led by ace Nick Pinto. Even No. 3 seed Nicholls brings an above-average pitching staff to the table.

But Oregon State is nearly unbeatable in Corvallis. The Beavers finished 24-2 at home this season and added a 9-2 neutral record. OSU is positioned well for the regional round and the College World Series. They’ll be hoping for an upset in the Lexington Regional, too.

• No bet.

Greenville Regional, East Carolina (16)

Since breaking out in 2018, East Carolina has played host five times in six tournaments. They also advanced to the Super Regionals in three of the last four tournaments. However, this year deals a massive uphill battle as they draw Wake Forest, the tournament’s top No. 2 seed. The Demon Deacons average a 10.3 rank in RPI, KPI, and DSR heading into the tournament.

One of the nation’s top one-two punches in Chase Burns (2.46 ERA, 184 Ks) and Josh Hartle (7-3, 81 Ks) will make Wake a popular pick. They’re one of just two No. 2 seeds to be outright favored in their region (Duke).

But with ECU’s proven home success (26-4 this season), the host Pirates have to be worth considering at this price.

• Brett’s bet: East Carolina +180

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