2025 Cognizant Classic Preview: Everything You Need To Know About PGA National

It’s another week of golf action on the PGA Tour. The next stop is the 2025 Cognizant Classic. Compare Cognizant Classic odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im, and Sepp Straka project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

The Florida Swing is officially underway as the PGA Tour heads east to Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. The show continues at PGA National as we prep for the 2025 Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, formerly the Honda Classic.

PGA National is one of the significant challenges on tour. Its closing stretch features a climactic finish with constant long iron approaches into greens surrounded by water. We should expect plenty of carnage and reloads for any shots off the mark.

Here’s everything you can expect to help navigate 2025 Cognizant Classic odds.

COGNIZANT CLASSIC ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Scroll to the bottom for complete outright odds. We’ve compiled those odds from top sportsbooks in your state. Find opening odds for favorites at 30-1 or higher and when odds are released on Monday.

THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

The Cognizant Classic has attracted some of its most prominent names in years due partly to a re-shuffling schedule between the California and Florida swings, including a stopover in Mexico. Historically, the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players loom large. As a result, stars typically opted to skip PGA National, but many who call Florida home are prepared to play for the next three consecutive weeks.

Shane Lowry and Sungjae Im are the co-headliners of that group this week. Both players fall inside the OWGR top 25 and have had their fair share of success at PGA National. Im picked up his first career PGA Tour victory at this event in 2020. Lowry has done everything but win at this event, feeling right at home since moving to Palm Beach Gardens with top-five finishes in his last three appearances at the Cognizant Classic.

Rory McIlroy has been absent since making a surprise appearance at this event last year, but the field still includes an impressive 10 OWGR top-40 players, which should make for a much more compelling event than we’ve seen in recent years. In addition to Lowry and Im, Russell Henley, Sepp Straka, Billy Horschel, Byeong Hun An, Denny McCarthy, Taylor Pendrith, Jordan Spieth, and Cameron Young are the expected favorites for this week’s event.

Austin Eckroat returns as defending champion this week after putting on a ball-striking masterclass to pick up his first career PGA Tour win in 2024. Past champions in this week’s field include Chris Kirk, Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im, Keith Mitchell, Rickie Fowler, Russell Henley, Camilo Villegas, and Matt Kuchar.

INTRODUCTION TO PGA NATIONAL

Unfortunately, this event became the forgotten stepchild of the Florida Swing. However, the loss of longtime sponsor Honda seems to have given the Cognizant Classic an extra kick in the pants. What was previously a natural bye week for top PGA Tour players between California and Florida swings has found new life since the Mexico Open at Vidanta took over that position on the schedule.

Florida golf can sometimes get a bad reputation for posing the same repetitive Bermuda agronomy and water hazards lining the fairways and greens as its core defense. But in an age of modern golf where bombers can overpower holes with reckless abandon, I welcome this style of golf course to help neutralize erratic ball-striking. Here, elite ball strikers well accustomed to Bermuda greens have been best positioned to separate themselves.

A former host venue of the 1983 Ryder Cup and 1987 PGA Championship, PGA National represents historic grounds for golf, and I’m excited to see an improved field face this stern test. Maybe a credit to TGL, Rickie Fowler, Cameron Young, Lucas Glover, Billy Horschel, Shane Lowry, and Min Woo Lee, who seem to have gotten used to visiting Palm Beach Gardens this winter, as they will all be here to tee it up for real this week.

Recent Course Changes

PGA National has long been a par-70 with only two par-5s. New in 2024, the par-4 10th hole was lengthened by 20 yards and converted from a very difficult long 508-yard par-4 to a more scorable 528-yard par-5.

Historically, the 10th hole was the second-hardest scoring hole at PGA National, with a scoring average of 4.25. Lengthening by about 20 yards may increase the scoring average slightly, but relative to par, this now becomes the easier birdie opportunity on the course.

This doesn’t change how the course plays, nor which players suit it best. We should expect the winning mark to be four strokes lower than we’ve typically seen recently.

About the Course

PGA National stands at 7,145 yards as a par-71. It’s anything but your traditional short plodder’s course, with tight landing areas off the tee and a heavy volume of forced layups from dramatic doglegs. Wedge play is effectively removed from this course, with only about 11% of approaches coming from within 125 yards. That’s a unique distinction for a course of this length, as it instead rewards the top mid-to-long iron players. About 65% of approach shots will come from 125-200 yards, well above the tour average.

PGA National is the most difficult course on the tour for approaches from beyond 150 yards. That’s partly thanks to its exposure to gusting winds and firm and fast conditions. This places a premium on bogey avoidance and scrambling, benefiting players comfortable on pure Bermuda on and around the green. Top-tier ball strikers with proven short games on Bermuda contend in this event.

PGA National has had a cut line above par in the last 10 years. Its median field score sat at even par or worse in seven of the last eight years. Outside of the par-5s, all 15 other holes feature a scoring average of even par or worse. The par-5s offer no guarantees for birdies, depending on the wind direction.

A score of -10 or better has been enough to win this event in eight of the last 10 years. With par converted to 71, considering the improved strength of the field, we should expect a winning score around -14 or better this year.

COURSE HISTORY & COURSE COMPS

After a few weeks on the West Coast with a highly predictive course history, the Cognizant Classic struggled to produce the same continuity year after year. Over the last 40 years, only Padraig Harrington and Mark Calcavecchia won this event multiple times. Given its rotating slot on the schedule each year, attracting the same players has been challenging.

Sepp Straka

By way of Georgia, Austrians have developed a strong affinity for Bermuda greens since moving stateside. Straka leads the field in total strokes gained at PGA National over the last five years, including a win and a T5. Straka picked up his latest PGA Tour victory at The Stadium Course — which shares many of the same risk-reward water hazards — earlier this season.

Others Excelling at Cognizant Classic

After Straka, the rest of the top 10 in event history are Daniel Berger, Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, Rickie Fowler, Byeong Hun An, Eric Cole, Kurt Kitayama, Ryan Gerard, and Lee Hodges. Some notables among the worst in terms of total strokes gained at PGA National include Erik van Rooyen, Seamus Power, and Tom Hoge.

Only nine players have avoided missing the cut at this event over the last five years (min. three appearances): Billy Horschel, Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, Jhonattan Vegas, Beau Hossler, Mackenzie Hughes, Mark Hubbard, Sam Ryder, and Davis Riley.

Eleven players in this field have delivered multiple T15 finishes over the last five years: Sepp Straka, Daniel Berger, Sungjae Im, Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, Lee Hodges, Gary Woodland, Keith Mitchell, Sam Ryder, Zach Johnson, and Chris Kirk.

Course Comps

When finding course fits this week, there are plenty of complex and wind-exposed Bermuda layouts to reference. I’m weighing comp course history in my model more than usual. Plenty of players have a sticky history throughout the Florida Swing this time of year who are worth buying low on after the last month on primarily Poa-based greens.

Nicklaus has his hands all over the layout of this golf course. Concession GC emulates PGA National, which is the closest in my eyes. Apart from the Nicklaus connection, both are in Florida on the same Bermuda grass and water hazards. They share pretty difficult scoring and a premium on approach play. 

Weather Considerations

A significant factor for this week is managing the flighting of the ball around swirling winds. Matt Jones and Austin Eckroat credited their comfort in flighting different shots into winds as key to their victories here in recent years. TPC Southwind, Colonial CC, TPC San Antonio, and Waialae CC are similar shorter courses requiring this type of maneuvering. And as far as crossover leaderboards go, Waialae CC is probably the best comp, with overlapping wins at each from Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, and Matt Kuchar within the past decade. Chris Kirk, Matt Jones, Keith Mitchell, and Adam Scott add to the list of past Cognizant Classic winners with a strong history at Waialae CC.

Bay Hill, Innisbrook (Copperhead), East Lake, and TPC Sawgrass also reward similar skill sets under challenging conditions. If we want to look at a blanket SG: Florida, the top 10 players in SG: TOT over the last 36 rounds across the Florida Swing are Shane Lowry, Chris Kirk, Russell Henley, Jordan Spiethm, Cameron Young, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Ben Griffin, Daniel Berger, Billy Horschel, and Brian Harman.

Finally on a more tertiary basis, I like Quail Hollow as another challenging scoring course with fast Bermuda greens that slightly favors longer hitters.

If you add all that together, the top 10 players in comp course history are Shane Lowry, Russell Henley, Daniel Berger, Adam Schenk, Denny McCarthy, Davis Riley, Sungjae Im, Eric Cole, Mac Meissner, and Andrew Putnam.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER AT THE 2025 COGNIZANT CLASSIC

• SG: APP/SG: ball striking
• SG: OTT/driving distance
• SG: ARG/scrambling (Bermuda)
• Prox: 150-200
• Bogey and double bogey avoidance
• SG: TOT (difficult scoring conditions) / SG: TOT (Florida swing)
• SG: putting (Bermuda)
• Course history and comp course history

With so many high-pressure approach shots over water, it’s crucial to have narrow misses on this course. That’s especially true in the 150- to 200-yard range. The top 10 players in SG: APP entering this week are Kurt Kitayama, J.J. Spaun, Lucas Glover, Antoine Rozner, Gary Woodland, Andrew Putnam, Michael Kim, Matteo Manassero, Shane Lowry, and Luke Clanton.

The top 10 players in proximity 125-200 yards are Joel Dahmen, Rico Hoey, Kurt Kitayama, Nate Lashley, Ryan Fox, Victor Perez, Nico Echavarria, Mac Meissner, Daniel Berger, and Niklas Norgaard.

It’s difficult to pinpoint where this event falls from an OTT standpoint between distance vs. accuracy. Since SG: OTT hasn’t been highly correlated regarding past success, I’m leaning more toward SG: ball striking this week to include a second layer of approach importance. With hazards coming into play persistently, it’s probably best to weed out any players in the bottom 25% in SG: OTT or driving distance this week.

The Biggest Keys

I’m looking more closely at SG: TOT (difficult scoring conditions), bogey avoidance, and scrambling gained, as players who fit this profile should have the safest floors. The players in the top 40 in each category are Russell Henley, Daniel Berger, C.T. Pan, Keith Mitchell, Mac Meissner, and Nate Lashley.

To bring this all together, I’m focusing on above-average players in SG: APP, prox: 150-200, SG: ball striking, scrambling, SG: TOT (comp courses), Bermuda putting and SG: T2G (difficult scoring conditions). Only nine players fit that criteria this week: Russell Henley, Daniel Berger, Lucas Glover, C.T. Pan, Gary Woodland, Mac Meissner, Ben Griffin, Charley Hoffman, and Doug Ghim.

Correlation And PGA National

The correlation charts for success at PGA National call for a similar profile of par-4 scoring premiums, bogey avoidance, and SG: T2G. As a par-71, there is less advantage from par-5 scoring this week. There hasn’t been much of an edge for par-3 specialists, either.

The importance of SG: APP and scrambling jumps the most compared to the tour average. I’ll dial up the importance of those metrics in my model this week. Par-4: 350-400 will also be a premium scoring range this week, as three par-4s will fall within this range.

Regarding other stats to avoid, prox 200+ and three-putt avoidance were among the least correlated with success at PGA National.

Just nine players rate out above average in each of the above top-10 stat categories for PGA National: Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, Lee Hodges, C.T. Pan, Mac Meissner, Bud Cauley, Ben Griffin, Ryan Fox, Austin Eckroat.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Russell Henley

It’s hardly a revelation to research a challenging 7,100-yard Bermuda golf course emphasizing controlled ball-striking and mid-iron approach play and conclude that Russell Henley fares well. And it’s even less eye-opening in the case of Henley when he’s already won at this venue. He repeatedly returned more successfully, with six career top-25 finishes at PGA National in 10 trips.

I try not to “waste” the player spotlight on something that goes without saying, like “a previous winner who hasn’t missed a cut since The Players in 2024 and ranks top five in every obvious key stat category is going to play well.” I also try to avoid being redundant with the same player at the same event or the same player multiple times in the same month. So let this be an exception to the rule in extreme circumstances and a testament to how much I prefer Henley’s chances in the 2025 Cognizant Classic field.

Henley embodies everything I’m looking for in a player this week. His current form is excellent, and he has a course history and thrives on the comp windy courses (wins at Waialae CC, PGA National, GC of Houston, and El Camaleon). Henley does his best putting on Bermuda greens, he’s fantastic at avoiding trouble with his elite driving accuracy and mid-iron approach play, and recently, he’s transformed into a juggernaut under challenging conditions (ranked sixth). None of this should be any new information to anyone reading this article.

Say what you will about the four-time PGA Tour winner’s ability to close. I can’t find a reason to justify not betting on him this week, and he’ll be on a tight betting card for me regardless of where his odds open on Monday.

2025 COGNIZANT CLASSIC ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. I’m also looking their way in the 2025 Cognizant Classic odds. I’ve broken the list by actualized pricing/odds tier for DraftKings and rankings projections for Underdog Fantasy, with odds and pricing released earlier this week.

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Shane Lowry
Sungjae Im

Tier 2

Russell Henley
Sepp Straka
Daniel Berger
Jordan Spieth
Denny McCarthy
Austin Eckroat

Tier 3

CT Pan
Keith Mitchell
Andrew Novak
Ben Griffin
Lucas Glover
Eric Cole
Alex Smalley

Tier 4

Adam Schenk
Doug Ghim
Mac Meissner
Lee Hodges

Tier 5

Bud Cauley
Nate Lashley
Charley Hoffman
Sam Ryder

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COGNIZANT Classic Odds MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

For my model this week, I prioritize SG: APP, comp course history, prox 150-200, and recent form (SG: TOT: L16). Then, a more balanced mix of scrambling plus SG: ARG, SG: P (Bermuda), SG: TOT (Florida swing), SG: T2G (difficult scoring conditions), and bogey or worse avoidance.

Model Favorites

Russell Henley is the top dog in my 2025 Cognizant Classic model. That checks out on a problematic, sub-7,100-yard course played on Bermuda, emphasizing avoiding trouble with approach and tee shots and separating on Bermuda greens. A winner here back in 2014, Henley always seems to find himself in the mix, with six top-25 finishes over 10 prior appearances. Henley will be a popular choice on betting cards this week as he continues to improve his short game and elevate his play in more demanding conditions.

After Henley, my model’s top 10 consists of Daniel Berger, Shane Lowry, Lucas Glover, Kurt Kitayama, Lee Hodges, Denny McCarthy, C.T. Pan, Gary Woodland, and Keith Mitchell.

When the odds release on Monday, I want to build a tight card with exposure to Russell Henley and Shane Lowry. Depending on where the odds ultimately fall, I’m also considering Sepp Straka, Daniel Berger, Lee Hodges, and Andrew Novak.

Check back in later this week for more updates. Thanks for reading, and best of luck navigating 2025 Cognizant Classic odds!

2025 COGNIZANT CLASSIC OPENING ODDS

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