A couple weeks ago, TheLines looked at the effect of HBO’s Hard Knocks on betting and futures.
The impact is real, people. The public is actually betting on the Cleveland Browns.
No, seriously, they are
That wasn’t a joke. We’re being serious. People are making wagers on the Browns to win the AFC North, the AFC Championship, and even the Super Bowl.
Before Hard Knocks, the Browns were 10/1 to win their division, 40/1 to win the AFC, and 80/1 to win the Super Bowl.
Today, those odds at MGM are 7/1, 20/1, and 60/1, respectively.
Keep in mind, this is the same Browns team that has won ONE game in the past two years. ONE. While Tyrod Taylor is criminally underrated and Baker Mayfield will be a real pro QB—those two aren’t the second coming of Montana & Young, either.
Plus, have you actually watched Hard Knocks, betting public? Does Browns head coach Hue Jackson instill any level of confidence in you?
Fool me once…
I get it. I do.
Last year, despite being fully aware of the perceived Hard Knock bias, I succumbed and over-valued certain Tampa Bay Buccaneers in my fantasy draft. I did so despite having a similar lack of confidence in Dirk Koetter as I do in Hue Jackson. I paid the price.
That won’t happen again.
Vegas is of a similar mindset. They won’t let Hard Knocks fool them either.
According to the MGM’s VP of race & sports, Jay Rood, “The Browns are our only liability right now.”
The public, which is more often wrong than right, is backing the Browns. The past two years, Vegas books had to inflate Browns lines to get action. This year, at least early, expect tight lines with the public biting as sharps wager against the Browns.
As sure as Josh Allen will lead the league in interceptions this year, the Browns aren’t winning their division or going to the Super Bowl. They’ll be better, but don’t fall for the Hard Knocks trap.