The NFL released its 2023-24 schedule with much pomp and circumstance Thursday night. Eager fans rushed to evaluate their favorite team’s slate, the Cleveland Browns included. Bettors rushed to check NFL Week 1 opening odds and re-assess win totals. Looking at the Browns’ schedule and win total this season, is there any value to be had? Let’s dive into the latest Cleveland Browns odds.
Browns Win Total, Futures Odds
Cleveland Browns 2023-24 Schedule
The Browns were awarded with a last-place schedule thanks to a last-place finish in the AFC North last season. Opponents this season are lined for 8.58 average wins, per betting sites like DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook, 14th-fewest in the league.
Cleveland plays four of its first five opponents at home, including all of the AFC North once over. However, they draw a Week 5 bye, the earliest in the NFL.
- Week 1: vs. Bengals
- Week 2: at Steelers
- Week 3: vs. Titans
- Week 4: vs. Ravens
- Week 5: BYE
- Week 6: vs. 49ers
- Week 7: at Colts
- Week 8: at Seahawks
- Week 9: vs. Cardinals
- Week 10: at Ravens
- Week 11: vs. Steelers
- Week 12: at Broncos
- Week 13: at Rams
- Week 14: vs. Jaguars
- Week 15: vs. Bears
- Week 16: at Texans
- Week 17: vs. Jets
- Week 18: at Bengals
The early bye in the middle of an advantageous home stand might be the worst positioning in the NFL. While it may help get the Browns off to a solid start in the AFC North, that early bye could come into play late in the season with a stretch against some teams that should improve, like the Broncos, Rams, and Jaguars.
Despite playing in the AFC, the Browns have an advantageous cast of opposing QBs this coming season. They’ll likely face at least two rookies (Anthony Richardson- Colts, and CJ Stroud- Texans) and avoid Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes.
Currently, the Browns’ best win total is .
2022 In Review
Cleveland finished a disappointing 7-10 last season. The absence and late debut of Deshaun Watson contributed heavily, while inconsistency delivered the other punch. From Weeks 1-12, the Browns scored the 11th-most points in the NFL (23.9) and posted the sixth-best EPA per play metric. Not-so-coincidentally, from Week 13 on, that dipped to just 16.3 points scored per game and 24th in EPA with the re-introduction of Watson.
Conversely, the defense improved its play as the season progressed. Following a complete collapse to Joe Flacco and the Jets in Week 2, the Browns’ defense held opponents to the third-worst EPA per play in the league from Week 13 onward. Granted, that was against a stretch of offenses that ranked no higher than 14th in EPA per play, save for the Bengals (who won 23-10).
The Browns parted ways with incompetent defensive coordinator Joe Woods in favor of veteran Jim Schwartz. Woods’ persistence on not making in-game adjustments led to multiple blown leads, most famously the collapse against the Jets in Week 2. Cleveland finished 2-6 in one-score games in 2022.
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Reasons For Optimism In Browns’ Win Total
When Watson re-joined the team, he looked and played like a quarterback who hadn’t seen an NFL field in two years. He posted the sixth-worst EPA per play starting in Week 13 (min. 100 snaps) and completed fewer than 64% of his passes. Watson showed some improvement week over week but capped the season off with two interceptions and seven taken sacks against Pittsburgh in Week 18.
This year, Watson gets an uninterrupted offseason to work with the Browns’ offense. Cleveland went out and bolstered their receiving group – which was led by Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones last year – with ostracized Jets receiver Elijah Moore and rookie Cedric Tillman. The backfield lost two key pieces but will retain star Nick Chubb, who runs behind an offensive line that’s one of the league’s best when healthy and intact.
This offseason’s work went to the defense. Aside from bringing on Schwartz, the Browns signed Dalvin Tomlinson, Trysten Hill, and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo to bolster the defensive front. They also drafted Siaki Ika from Baylor.
In totality, the Browns made sound offseason moves to improve units needing improvement. They addressed coaching malpractice on defense and brought in a few more pass catchers.
Ultimately, their schedule is far from a murderer’s row. Things get markedly more difficult after their Week 5 bye, but they face Arizona, Chicago, and Houston, all of whom could vie for a top draft position next year.
Check back for NFL win totals analysis by TheLines’ staff all offseason long. Also, check out the latest Super Bowl 58 odds.
