CJ Cup Byron Nelson Odds & Betting Preview: Everything To Know About TPC Craig Ranch
Another week of PGA Tour action brings us to TPC Craig Ranch, with the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson next on tap. Compare CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA Tour golf betting payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, and Jordan Spieth project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.
We are back in the saddle as the PGA Tour returns to the Lone Star State. For the fourth time in the longstanding history of the Byron Nelson, we head to TPC Craig Ranch, located in McKinney, just north of Dallas. As always, we’ll prepare you to navigate CJ Cup Byron Nelson golf odds by reviewing key info in our course preview.
TPC Craig Ranch is about as easy as they come on the PGA Tour. It has wide open fairways, large receptive greens, and few penalty hazards. If the weather stays fairly neutral, we should expect another winner in the mid-20s under par, rewarding birdie-makers who catch the hottest putter for four days. This is a quintessential putting contest.
We’ll review the key facts and information about TPC Craig Ranch ahead of the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
CJ Cup BYRON NELSON ODDS: THE FAVORITES
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THE FIELD AT A GLANCE
A week after an expected break from the game's best at the Zurich Classic team event, the same elite players have saved themselves a trip to Texas for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. In the heart of a six-week stretch that includes four Signature Events or Majors, it's understandable to see a relatively lackluster field in this spot.
As we've come to expect at Texas events, though, the local Texas residents have shown up. The expected favorites, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, and Will Zalatoris, have direct ties to the greater Dallas area. Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, and Byeong Hun An round out the list of favorites in the field this week.
Taylor Pendrith returns for his title defense in 2025, backdooring his first career PGA Tour win after an unfortunate implosion from Ben Kohles down the stretch last year. Interestingly, Jason Day and KH Lee, collective winners over the prior three instances of this event at TPC Craig Ranch, will not tee it up this week.
INTRODUCTION TO TPC CRAIG RANCH
TPC Craig Ranch is one of the most vanilla courses on the PGA Tour schedule, in my opinion. It repeats many cookie-cutter hole layouts we’ve grown accustomed to seeing across other TPC venues. As a 7,468-yard par-72, TPC Craig Ranch is most suitable for the longest drivers in the field. The wide Zoysia fairways offer more forgiveness here, so driving accuracy will be less of a premium skillset than most weeks on the PGA Tour.
The first four years of action at TPC Craig Ranch were a typical birdie-fest and putting contest. Elite ball-striking skillsets are at less of a premium on this layout, with the course offering little residence from tee-to-green. That’s especially true when all the elite players seek a break between Signature Events and Majors this time of year. Plus-distance helps here, but that didn’t stop players like Ben Kohles, Troy Merritt, Satoshi Kodaira, and Matt Kuchar from contending over the last few years.
Given the randomness associated with putting contests, it may be another good week to spread exposure across a more exhaustive list of longshots.
EVENT HISTORY & COURSE COMPS
Over its first four years at TPC Craig Ranch, just eight players finished inside the top 20 multiple times: Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Si Woo Kim, Stephan Jaeger, Matt Kuchar, Seamus Power, Byeong Hun An, and Ryan Palmer.
Overall, the top 10 in course history at TPC Craig Ranch features Jordan Spieth, Austin Eckroat, Byeong Hun An, Taylor Pendrith, Scottie Scheffler, Peter Malnati, Sam Burns, Stephan Jaeger, Jake Knapp, and Seamus Power.
Course Comps
I believe it’s best to reference recent form across a volume of comp courses rather than isolate three years of performance here. I’m looking for easy, second-shot courses with above-average distance and some exposure to gusting winds as comps. These courses yield a high amount of birdies with very few bogeys.
Like the Mexico Open, I think Grand Reserve (host of the Puerto Rico Open) resembles the characteristics needed at TPC Craig Ranch, especially if we get the windy conditions typically expected in the Texas swing. Both courses favor longer hitters without penalty on their tee shots but still offer moderate scoring for the whole field.
After Grand Reserve, an assortment of courses, such as CC of Jackson, Silverado Resort, PGA West (Nicklaus & La Quinta), and The Plantation Course at Kapalua, each play as second-shot courses that mitigate the advantage from positioning off the tee.
TPC Scottsdale may also fit, given the Tom Weiskopf design connection and correlation for KH Lee, who had his best career finish just three months prior when he placed T2 at the WM Phoenix Open.
Vidanta Vallarta, TPC Twin Cities, and Detroit Golf Club rate as more tertiary comps. They have also seen some correlated leaderboards and require a similar skillset of long irons and Birdies or Better Gained.
When performance across this list and the top 10 players in Comp Course History are combined, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Taylor Moore, Sungjae Im, Cam Davis, Jhonattan Vegas, Justin Lower, Ben Griffin, Stephan Jaeger, and Beau Hossler are the top 10.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER
- Birdies or Better Gained
- SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions)
- SG: APP
- Driving Distance
- Prox 200+
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Putting (Bent)
- Course & Comp Course History
Approach play comes at the greatest premium when we get to a second-shot course. The top 10 players in SG: APP this week are: Henrik Norlander, Sami Valimaki, Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris, Stephan Jaeger, Rico Hoey, Jackson Suber, Doug Ghim, Michael Kim, and Kevin Yu.
Looking more granularly at approaches from 200+, that top-10 list includes Zac Blair, Brandon Matthews, Hayden Buckley, Adam Schenk, Joel Dahmen, Jackson Suber, Nick Hardy, Kurt Kitayama, Scottie Scheffler, and SH Kim.
If the formula is as simple as irons, putting, and birdies, five players rate out top-40 in each category: Scottie Scheffler, Ryan Gerard, Jake Knapp, Lee Hodges, and Davis Riley.
The four par 5s present the best opportunity to gain separation. The top 10 Par-5 scorers are Lee Hodges, Niklas Norgaard, Davis Riley, SH Kim, Pierceson Coody, Taylor Moore, Jeremy Paul, Michael Kim, Hayden Springer, and Victor Perez.
Birdie-Making Ability
This week's focus is on making birdies and capitalizing on easy scoring conditions. Very few situations require precision off the tee or advanced scrambling skills. With players hitting the fairways and greens in regulation at about 72%, this week should come down to who can set up birdie opportunities and convert them.
The top 10 players in Birdie or Better Gained entering this week are Niklas Horgaard, Cam Davis, Scottie Scheffler, SH Kim, Jesper Svensson, Keith Mitchell, Michael Thorbjornsen, Si Woo Kim, Jake Knapp, and Danny Walker.
Wrapping this all together, the ideal player should rank above average in SG: APP, Prox: 200+, Birdies or Better Gained, SG: Putting, and Comp Course History. Nine players fit this criteria: Scottie Scheffler, Jake Knapp, Matti Schmid, Joe Highsmith, Ryan Gerard, Nicolai Hojgaard, Sam Ryder, Ben Griffin, and Jordan Spieth.
Correlation
Due to the small sample size, we can’t lean too heavily on correlation charts. That brings some outliers to the fold, such as Double Bogey Avoidance and P3: 150-175 popping up as two of the top stats for this week. I looked beyond that from a modeling perspective and expect those stats to fall further down the list as the sample size grows.
The broader takeaway from these stats suggests that the winner must take advantage of the easiest scoring opportunities and move on with pars on the 200+ par 3s and 490+ par 4s. If players can make it through the week at even par on the six holes that average over, they should position themselves well to contend by taking advantage of birdie opportunities on the other 12 holes.
Nine players in the field rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Scottie Scheffler, Si Woo Kim, Matti Schmid, Joe Highsmith, Will Zalatoris, Ryan Gerard, Taylor Pendrith, Ben Griffin, and Jordan Spieth.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: RYAN GERARD
It’s been a while since the last pure birdie-fest on the PGA Tour after sustained runs across the Florida and Texas Swings. That tends to create some long-term buy-low opportunities on the players who proved best equipped to handle scoring in the easiest conditions, whether on the Korn Ferry Tour or PGA Tour Fall Swing. In the case of the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson, I’m especially drawn to Ryan Gerard for those reasons.
Gerard has impressed in his second full season on the PGA Tour thus far in 2025, making it through the cut in 11 of his first 12 starts. He’s often worked himself into contention over that stretch, with five top-20 finishes, including two top-10s over his last three starts. Gerard posted a career-best runner-up finish two starts ago at the Valero Texas Open, so we know he can deliver in this familiar Texas climate.
Though not the quintessential bomber you may look for at TPC Craig Ranch, Gerard is still above-average in the field in Driving Distance, and leans on his approach play and putting. That’s an encouraging profile for birdie-fest conditions, as Gerard is one of just two players in this field to rank in the top 15 in both categories.
Amid another solid showing at the Zurich Classic this weekend, Gerard will be a fixture on my betting card this week.
2025 CJ Cup byron nelson ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early towards the below player pool. Naturally, I’m also looking their way in the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds. I’ve broken the list by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.
UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS
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Tier 1
Scottie Scheffler
Tier 2
Jordan Spieth
Taylor Pendrith
Si Woo Kim
Byeong Hun An
Tom Kim
Tier 3
Jake Knapp
Will Zalatoris
Stephan Jaeger
Ben Griffin
Keith Mitchell
Nicolai Hojgaard
Tier 4
Ryan Gerard
Joe Highsmith
Michael Kim
Rico Hoey
Seamus Power
Tier 5
Joel Dahmen
Matti Schmid
Jeremy Paul
CJ cup byron Nelson MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN
In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: APP, Comp Course History, Birdie or Better Gained, and Par 5 Scoring, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), Prox 200+, SG: P (Bent), and Driving Distance.
To no surprise, it's World No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, who claims the No. 1 honors in my model this week as he makes his return to Texas. Scheffler remains long overdue for his first win of the 2025 PGA Tour season, and this would be a sensible place to notch his first, having finished T5 and T15 in his last two appearances.
After Scheffler, my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Ben Griffin, Michael Kim, Jordan Spieth, Taylor Pendrith, Joe Highsmith, Stephan Jaeger, Nicolai Hojgaard, Taylor Moore, and Hayden Springer.
When the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds open, I’m looking for another longer list of long shots, with this event lacking a dominant fit for the course amongst the favorites. I’ll watch a few of Byeong Hun An, Jake Knapp, and Ryan Gerard. Check back in later this week for more updates. Best of luck navigating the 2025 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds!
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