2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Preview: Everything To Know About TPC Craig Ranch

Another week of PGA TOUR action brings us to TPC Craig Ranch, with the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson next on tap. Compare CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential PGA TOUR golf betting payouts. Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, and Tom Kim project as the top favorites for this upcoming tournament.

We are back in the saddle as the PGA TOUR returns to the Lone Star State. For the fourth time in the longstanding history of the Byron Nelson, we head TPC Craig Ranch, located in McKinney, just north of Dallas. As always, we’ll prepare you for navigating CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds by running through key info in our course preview.

TPC Craig Ranch is about as easy they come on the PGA TOUR. It has wide open fairways, large receptive greens, and few penalty hazards. If weather stays fairly neutral, we should expect another winner in the mid-20s under par, rewarding birdie-makers who catch the hottest putter for four days. This is a quintessential putting contest.

Ahead, we’ll run through the key facts and info about TPC Craig Ranch ahead of the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

cj cup BYRON NELSON ODDS: THE FAVORITES

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THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

A week after an expected break from the game’s best at the Zurich Classic team event, the same elite players have saved themselves a trip to Texas for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. In the heart of a six-week stretch that includes four Signature Events or Majors, it’s understandable to see a relatively lackluster field in this spot.

As we’ve come to expect at Texas events, though, the local Texas residents have shown up. Each of the expected favorites – Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, and Tom Kim – have direct ties to the greater Dallas area. Jason Day, Min Woo Lee, Byeong Hun An, Sungjae Im, and Adam Scott round out the list of favorites in the field this week.

Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns have each loved playing in the Texas Swing but are both absent this week with their wives expecting their first child.

KH Lee won each of the first two contests at TPC Craig Ranch and will be in the field in search of his third. The 2023 champion, Jason Day, is also back for his title defense.

INTRODUCTION TO TPC CRAIG RANCH

TPC Craig Ranch is one of the most vanilla courses on the PGA TOUR schedule in my opinion. It repeats many of the same cookie-cutter hole layouts we’ve grown accustomed to seeing across other TPC venues. As a 7,468 yard par-72, TPC Craig Ranch is most suitable to the longest drivers in the field. The wide Zoysia fairways offer more forgiveness here, so driving accuracy will be less of a premium skillset here than most weeks on the PGA TOUR.

The first three years of action at TPC Craig Ranch proved to be a typical birdie-fest and putting contest. Elite ball-striking skillsets are at less of a premium on this layout, with the course offering little residence from tee-to-green. That’s especially true when all the elite players are looking for a break between Signature Events and Majors this time of year. Plus-distance helps here, but that didn’t stop players like Troy Merritt, Satoshi Kodaira and Matt Kuchar from contending over the last few years. It may be another good week to spread exposure across a wider list of longshots, given the randomness associated with putting contests.

For TPC Craig Ranch course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past CJ Cup Byron Nelson winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our CJ Cup Byron Nelson page.

Editor’s Note

EVENT HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

Over its first three years at TPC Craig Ranch, just six players finished inside the top 20 multiple times: Jordan Spieth, KH Lee, Ryan Palmer, Seamus Power, Joseph Bramlett, and Matt Kuchar. Power is the only player in the field to finish top-20 in each of the first three events at TPC Craig Ranch.

KH Lee is in a class of his own in terms of course history after sweeping the first two Byron Nelsons at TPC Craig Ranch. He looked human for the first time at TPC Craig Ranch last year with a T50 finish but remains No. 1 in terms of Course History. The rest of the top 10 in course history here features Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, Ryan Palmer, Sung Kang, Scott Piercy, Stephan Jaeger, Seamus Power, Joseph Bramlett, and Alex Noren. Palmer and Kang are notably both members at TPC Craig Ranch.

Course Comps

I believe it’s best to reference recent form across a volume of comp courses than isolate three years of performance here. I’m looking for easy, second-shot courses with above-average distance and some exposure to gusting winds as comps. These courses yield a high amount of birdies with very few bogeys.

Similar to the Mexico Open, I think Grand Reserve (host of the Puerto Rico Open) most closely resembles the characteristics needed at TPC Craig Ranch, especially if we get the windy conditions typically expected in the Texas swing. Both courses favor longer hitters without penalty on their tee shots but still offer moderate scoring for the full field.

After Grand Reserve, an assortment of courses like CC of Jackson, Silverado Resort, PGA West (Nicklaus & La Quinta) and The Plantation Course at Kapalua each play as second-shot courses that mitigate advantage from position off the tee.

TPC Scottsdale may also fit, given the Tom Weiskopf design connection and correlation for KH Lee, who had his best career finish just three months prior when he placed T2 at the WM Phoenix Open. 

Vidanta Vallarta, TPC Twin Cities, and Detroit Golf Club rate as more tertiary comps. They have also seen some correlated leaderboards and require a similar skillset of long irons and Birdies or Better Gained.

Combine performance across this list and the top 10 players in Comp Course History here are Jake Knapp, Sami Valimaki, Sungjae Im, Stephan Jaeger, Alejandro Tosti, Patrick Rodgers, Tom Hoge, Daniel Berger, Alex Noren, and Ben Griffin.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER

• Birdies or Better Gained
• SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions)
• SG: APP
• Driving Distance
• Prox 200+
• Par 5 Scoring
• SG: Putting (Bent)
• Course & Comp Course History

When we get to a second shot course, approach play comes at the greatest premium. The top 10 players in SG: APP this week are: Luke List, Henrik Norlander, Tom Hoge, Patton Kizzire, Alex Noren, Jake Knapp, Doug Ghim, Kevin Yu, Charley Hoffman, and Greyson Sigg.

Looking more granularly at approaches from 200+, that top-10 list includes Patrick Fishburn, Peter Kuest, Tom Hoge, Paul Barjon, Kevin Dougherty, Kevin Tway, Keith Mitchell, Luke List, Kevin Yu, and Andrew Novak.

If the formula is as simple as irons, putting, and birdies, just eight players rate out top-40 in each category: Tom Hoge, Peter Kuest, Maverick McNealy, Garrick Higgo, Matt Wallace, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Justin Lower, and Nick Hardy. In 2023, eventual winner, Jason Day, was notably one of just four players to meet the same criteria.

The four par 5s present the best opportunity to gain separation. The top 10 in terms of Par-5 Scoring are Alex Noren, Kevin Tway, Mackenzie Hughes, Stephan Jaeger, Mark Hubbard, Beau Hossler, Rico Hoey, Taylor Pendrith, Min Woo Lee, and Doug Ghim.

Birdie-Making Ability

This week centers around making birdies and capitalizing on easy scoring conditions. Very few situations this week require precision off the tee or advanced scrambling skills. With players hitting both the fairways and greens in regulation at about 72%, this week should come down to who can set up birdie opportunities and convert them.

The top 10 players in Birdie or Better Gained entering this week are Byeong Hun An, Mark Hubbard, Taylor Pendrith, Thomas Detry, Tom Hoge, Jordan Spieth, Patton Kizzire, Camilo Villegas, Wesley Bryan, and Tom Kim.

Wrapping this all together, the ideal player should rank above average in SG: APP, Prox: 200+, Birdies or Better Gained, SG: Putting, and Comp Course History. Just seven players fit this criteria: Tom Hoge, Garrick Higgo, Peter Kuest, Maverick McNealy, Justin Lower, Sam Valimaki, and Ben Silverman.

Correlation

We can’t lean too heavily on correlation charts due to small sample size. That brings some outliers to the fold, such as Double Bogey Avoidance and P3: 150-175 popping up as two of the top stats for this week. I looked beyond that from a modeling perspective and expect those stats to fall further down the list as the sample size grows.

The broader takeaway from these stats suggests that the winner must take advantage of the easiest scoring opportunities and simply move on with pars on the 200+ par 3s and 490+ par 4s. If players can make it through the week at even par on the six holes that average over, they should position themselves well to contend by taking advantage of birdie opportunities on the other 12 holes.

Ten players in the field rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Tom Hoge, Charley Hoffman, Keith Mitchell, Peter Kuest, Maverick McNealy, Sungjae Im, Henrik Norlander, Bud Cauley, Will Zalatoris, and Robert MacIntyre.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: PETER Kuest

The long ball is advantageous at TPC Craig Ranch, as length is truly the only defense this course can claim oversized fairways and greens and negligible rough to challenge the field otherwise. Driving Distance is what Kuest is best known for as he ranks No. 1 in the field in that category, averaging 320 yards off-the-tee with ball speed over 180 MPH.

While far from a household name, I don’t expect Kuest to fly too far under the radar for anyone who follows a model closely. He’s No. 2 overall in my own model, thanks to top-10 ranks in Prox: 200+ and SG: Putting. Though he’s been grinding Monday Qualifiers to get PGA TOUR starts with any regularity, he has made the most of his opportunities with top-10 finishes in each of his last two starts at the Corales Puntacana Championship and Valero Texas Open. Both of these recent events share course length and ball-striking in windy conditions in common with TPC Craig Ranch.

As further encouragement, Kuest impressed in his Byron Nelson debut here last year with a T14 showing. It will be interesting to see how far under the radar a player with proven course history and back-to-back top-10 finishes can fly, but he’ll be a fixture on my card if his odds drift beyond 60-1 come Monday.

2024 cj cup byron nelson ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early towards the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Will Zalatoris

Tier 2

Tom Hoge
Stephan Jaeger
Tom Kim
Keith Mitchell
Sungjae Im
Adam Scott

Tier 3

Peter Kuest
Maverick McNealy
Byeong Hun An
Mackenzie Hughes
Adam Schenk

Tier 4

Jake Knapp
Garrick Higgo
Kevin Yu
Doug Ghim
Ryan Fox

Tier 5

Sami Valimaki
Justin Lower
Hayden Springer
Patrick Fishburn
Vincent Norrman

CJ cup byron Nelson MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

In my BTN model, I’m emphasizing SG: APP, Comp Course History, Birdie or Better Gained and Par 5 Scoring, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), Prox 200+, SG: P (Bent) and Driving Distance.

Pride of the TCU Horned Frogs, it’s Tom Hoge who claims the No. 1 honors in my model this week as he makes his return to Texas. Hoge has been tremendous from fairway-to-green this season, ranking top-5 in SG: APP, Prox 200+, Birdies or Better Gained, and SG: Putting. His driving stats have held him back from contending more regularly, but a second shot course like TPC Craig Ranch should play right up his alley.

After Hoge, the rest of my model’s top 10 is rounded out by Peter Kuest, Jake Knapp, Mark Hubbard, Alex Noren, Keith Mitchell, Stephan Jaeger, Adam Scott, Maverick McNealy, and Byeong Hun An.

When the 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds open, I’m looking for another longer list of long shots, with this event lacking a dominant fit for the course amongst the favorites. I’ll have my eye on a few of Byeong Hun An, Tom Hoge, Peter Kuest, and Maverick McNealy. Check back in later this week for more updates. Best of luck navigating 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson odds!

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