Circa Survivor: CEO Derek Stevens Talks Strategy, Rules, Growth Of $10M NFL Contest

Sitting in an office full of personalized memorabilia, with a $200,000 swing on the line for the 2024 college football regular-season opener between Florida State and Georgia Tech, isn’t for the faint-hearted. For Derek Stevens, the owner and CEO of Circa Sports, more important items are on the horizon, including the country’s largest legal sports betting contest. Stevens sat down with TheLines.com to discuss the growth of Circa Survivor, its now $10 million guarantee, and how this four-month roller coaster of a contest has remodeled the NFL betting community.

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Circa Survivor’s Growth

The Circa Survivor contest is winner-take-all, unlike Circa Millions VI, which focuses on picking five teams against the spread each week and paying out the top 50 contestants. The last remaining entry wins the guaranteed prize from the survivor pool.

But like Circa Millions VI, Circa Survivor operates with no rake. Every dollar entered into the contest goes into the prize pool.

This time, Stevens and his team have guaranteed $10 million to be paid out, creating a potential overlay for the sportsbook. Even though there’s an overlay as of this publication, the company’s projections estimate it won’t be necessary.

Many sign-ups stem from the “Ultimate Contest Weekend.” This year’s festivities were held from Aug. 22 to 24 at Circa Sports, home of the world’s largest sportsbook in Las Vegas.

“When we look at our 2025 calendar, you circle a few weekends. We’re using an all-time record number of limos (to and from Circa on Aug. 22-24), more than March Madness or the Super Bowl. We’ll take a loss on the contest, but we do it for a reason. It matches up with our brand, the fact that we take big bets, and you can create a memorable scene in Vegas. Boy oh boy, it sure has.”

Derek Stevens, Circa Sports CEO

Circa Survivor rules

Contestants can buy a maximum of 10 entries. Similar to last season, they can re-buy an extra 10 entries if they lose them on either of the kick-off games.

After the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens renew their rivalry on Thursday, Sept. 5, the league will also showcase an opening-week Friday game for the first time in 54 years, with the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers squaring off in São Paulo, Brazil.

Circa Survivor has up to 20 picks:

• NFL Weeks 1-18
• Thanksgiving Day/Black Friday
• Christmas Day/Dec. 26

Once you select a team, you cannot use it again for the rest of the season. Contestants are eliminated by selecting a team that loses in a given week.

If more than one entry is left after all 20 legs, the pool is divided equally among the remaining entries.

Inside Circa Sports, with the number of survivor entries as of Friday, Aug. 23.

Circa Survivor Contest Strategy

Surprisingly, one of the biggest hiccups in the Circa Survivor contest is executing the obvious — your weekly selection. Picks are due by 4 p.m. PT each Saturday or before the start of the particular matchup if kickoff is before that deadline.

The deadlines for Thanksgiving games and Black Friday are different. In this case, contestants must fill out their submissions by 10 p.m. PT on Wednesday, November 27.

Users can play in Nevada at any Circa Sports kiosk or via the Nevada app. They may also register with Nevada-based proxies and inform them of their weekly choice.

In 2023, 31 entrants burned away $31,000 by failing to make their picks. Their lack of preparation benefits those who just took the time to read the guidelines. Once the holiday season kicks off, participants have eight teams to play with on Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

Another six take part in the Christmas Leg games, which include the Seahawks at Bears on Thursday, Dec. 26. The remaining entrants will have nine hours to select on Dec. 25 — from midnight to 9 a.m. PT on Christmas Day.

Some contestants steer clear of divisional contests because of the potential variance that could ensue. Last season, the Texans upset the Jaguars as touchdown underdogs in Week 3, eliminating roughly 41% of the Circa Survivor field.

How Stevens Thinks About 2024 NFL Survivor Strategy

Stevens recommends boiling down the field by thinking inversely. While perusing the schedule, cross off the 12 teams to avoid throughout the season. Contemplate picking the weaker teams at the beginning.

“You gotta go to the dance with 20 different dates,” he said. “Am I going to use the Saints this year? (If so,) wouldn’t I want to avoid them later on?”

So, Stevens may consider the New Orleans Saints (currently -4 on the spread) against the Carolina Panthers in his own pool for Week 1.

In this 2018 photo, co-owner Derek Stevens poses for a portrait on land where Circa would be built. Circa became the first casino resort built from the ground up in the entertainment district of downtown Las Vegas in more than three decades. (AP Photo/John Locher)

Double Holiday Schedule

On Christmas, the action begins in Pittsburgh for Chiefs at Steelers before Ravens at Texans, but Kansas City also hosts Las Vegas on Black Friday.

“Kansas City is the only team on the schedule that’s a double holiday team (Thanksgiving and Christmas),” Stevens said. “You could use them on Christmas, so there’s a little extra reason not to do so early on. The probability of wanting to play the Chiefs later on is very high.”

Roughly four percent of last year’s Circa Survivor entries reached the Thanksgiving slate. If you fail to construct a viable plan from the get-go, your chances of advancing will dip substantially.

Hedging Survivor Entries

A novice survivor player may solely focus on the $10 million (or greater) prize. Nevertheless, the more experienced contestant recognizes the value of hedging a pick with another entry, a moneyline bet on the opposite side, or even selling part of your entry for its inherent value further down the road.

Participants have differing viewpoints on the proper time to hedge, if at all, in futures betting or otherwise. For a no-vig contest like Circa Survivor, Stevens stated he’s a proponent of weighing the implied value of an entry if a contestant reaches the latter stages.

Before Week 15 of last season, 12 of the 13 remaining Circa Survivor entrants agreed to a $400,000 “chop” and play for the remaining $4 million. Professional poker player Sean Perry was the anomaly.

The prize pot of $9,267,000 was eventually split between the four finalists: Circus Master, IndianaJet, Jax Jags, and LAJoneser. Each one finished the season 20-0, each receiving $2,316,750.

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New Documentary: ‘Circa Survivor: The Quest for $9.2 Million’

VSiN, The Sports Betting Network, announced the first docuseries of its kind. “Circa Survivor: The Quest for $9.2 Million” debuted on Aug. 19, with the remaining episodes released this week. The five-part feature provides viewers with a drama-packed experience, taking them inside the high-stakes world of the annual Circa Survivor betting competition.

Stevens, a prominent character in this docuseries, cited the 2022 Circa Million as the inspiration. At season’s end, the four teammates on the winning “CHIEF-3” entry picked with their hearts, banking on the Lions +4.5 against the Packers in the handicapping contest.

Green Bay was searching for a victory to lock in a postseason berth. Instead, Detroit ended Aaron Rodgers’ Hall-of-Fame career in green and gold with a memorable upset. After the group opted not to hedge by betting on the Packers, it took home the $1 million first-place prize.

“We brought some champagne over,” Stevens said. “When the clock struck zero, we had the bottles popped and congratulated them. They were all talking about their coat size (a coveted, handmade Circa Sports blue jacket gifted to the winners). We took some video and posted it on VSiN’s (X) feed. It went crazy.

“Bettors love to see people play slot machines and win the jackpot. They love the underdog story — the behind the scenes of what’s happening and how people think. It makes me feel good that I’m not a complete oddball (for helping create this). Hell, I built this whole casino thinking there’s more people that love this stuff as much as I do.”

At that point, Stevens, also a Detroit native, celebrated another moment of fame for his city before parting with a hefty paycheck. Fast-forward to the present. The longtime businessman has constructed a survivor contest that stands among the all-time most innovative sports betting masterpieces.