Cincinnati Reds Odds: MLB Win Totals, Projections, Possible Bets
Welcome to TheLines.com's 2024 Spring Training preview of MLB odds. We'll preview every team's 2024 season with a focus on MLB win totals and World Series odds. We'll evaluate each team's roster and see if there are any wagers worth considering. Today, we'll look at Cincinnati Reds odds.
Last year's Reds put up a spirited charge out of nowhere, challenging for a playoff spot and even the division despite very long preseason odds. A late-season swoon ended the sweat for optimistic backers.
Can the Reds, with their young core of infielders, take the next step in 2024?
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Reds Odds: An Overview And What The Projections Say
First, let's compare the market on Reds odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2023 wins: 82
- Market wins: /
- FanGraphs wins: 79.6
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 78.6
The market is considerably higher on the Reds than the projections. That may be due to the Reds having quite a bit of upward mobility. They still have a very young team (only one player over 30 in the projected starting lineup), and they didn't lose any major contributors from last season's surprising push.
That said, it should be noted that few teams enjoyed better sequencing luck than the Reds. They "should have" won 75 games, as opponents outscored them by 58 runs on the season. And they opted to mostly bet on internal improvement, adding just one hitter and a couple of buy-low pitchers.
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Evaluating The Reds Roster
Bats And Defense
This unit took a bit of a hit already, as the league suspended former top prospect Noelvi Marte for 80 games on a PED bust. Thankfully for the Reds, they can afford the blow, as the infield is the strength of the team.
Elly De La Cruz is obviously the most interesting player here. The phenom looked like he might challenge Corbin Carroll in Rookie of the Year odds. Then, he scuffled through a brutal second half in which he hit for a 62 wRC+ while striking out 36% of the time. The defense will keep his value afloat, but the Reds need more from their bats after a 98 wRC+ as a team last season. De La Cruz's massive chase rate is a major concern. If he can take the next step, that would raise the Reds' ceiling considerably.
Beyond the young phenom, the Reds have an odd roster imbalance of too many good infielders and not enough good outfielders, although Marte's absence calms the situation for the moment. They would have been well-served to make a deal but apparently didn't find the right one.
There's enough youth and pedigree here that the Reds could take a leap. In addition to De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Matt McClain were all high-level prospects who have shown promise with the stick. New addition Jeimer Candelario is solid.
Defense is another story. Statcast thought only Boston performed worse. A full season of the McClain/De La Cruz tandem will help a bit, but the work in basically every corner figures to be below average at best. Tyler Stephenson's terrible work behind the dish is a major drag as well, but perhaps he can recapture the form from prior to 2023 when he was merely below average.
Pitching
The Reds also have an interesting collection of uncertain talent here, with several players possessing star potential. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Frankie Montas, and Nick Lodolo could form the foundation of a top-10 rotation. However, none could be called close to a sure thing.
In Abbott's case, we simply haven't seen enough, but he enjoyed a promising debut.
The others are all beset by some combination of injury and/or inconsistency.
Lodolo is on the shelf before the season even starts with a leg injury. He made just seven starts in 2023 but had a strong rookie campaign. We'll see if the lefty can bounce back.
Greene has the most promise of the bunch, with 99-mph fastball velocity that unfortunately plays below its heat level. The potential is there if he can continue refining his command, though.
Montas has been elite at times but can't seem to stay healthy. He missed basically all of last season (1.1 IP) but fired a combined 59 starts in the two seasons prior.
The bullpen was a source of great success for Cincy last season. Despite middling performance overall, the unit was marvelously clutch, ranking second in overall clutch factor and ninth in win probability per leverage. That's going to be a tough trick to repeat, but Alexis Diaz is back to try to repeat a season in which he was both an iron man (71 IP) and effective (3.07 ERA).
Possible Bets On Reds Odds
The Reds are probably one of the most interesting teams to monitor and handicap for 2024.
They possess significant upside due to the youth and talent on the roster. If the young batters continue to progress and the pitching merely gets good health, the Reds will probably win 85-90 games and challenge for the division. I really couldn't blame anyone for betting them north of +300, as the other teams in the division aren't exactly powerhouses.
However, I see some potential downside here as well. The defense looks poor, and none of the pitchers can be counted on. Plus, what if De La Cruz's second half was telling? I'm most concerned about the bullpen. Last season's great fortune was likely a mirage. This unit looks average at best.
Overall, I think the median result for Cincinnati comes in below their win total. But they possess enough upside and have a weak enough division to contend with that I'm going to keep it to a smaller-sized wager on Under 82.5.
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