Christian Watson Among WRs Unders To Consider In Run-Heavy Offenses
Betting unders on NFL season-long player props has been one of the most profitable strategies in the sports betting world. Over the past five years, they cash at better than 60% of the time. Casual fans and bettors naturally gravitate to the over side of over/under wagers. Sportsbooks and over bettors often don’t account for downside scenarios enough. In other words, injuries and regression to a player’s statistical mean all come into play throughout the season. Among the unders for wide receivers I like include three second-year wide receivers in projected run-heavy offenses: Treylon Burks, Drake London and Christian Watson.
As always at TheLines.com, make sure to check out the best sportsbook promo codes from the best NFL betting sites to make sure you’re maximizing your available offers. Let’s examine three NFL WR Props that may be worth an under bet.
Treylon Burks RECEIVING YARDS: OVER/UNDER
Titans wide receiver Treylon Burks enters his sophomore season coming off a disappointing rookie campaign. Burks struggled through injuries (toe, concussion, groin) as a rookie but sporadically flashed big-time talent. I expect DeAndre Hopkins to operate as Tennessee’s short-yardage possession receiver, with Burks in the bigger-play role.
This outlook should equal inconsistent play for Burks. Let’s remember that the Titans enter the 2023 season with one of the worst rosters, top to bottom. More specifically, most analysts project the Titans offensive line play to be, at best, bottom-five in the league. It’s also a scheme that produced the sixth-most run heavy team by run-pass ratio last year, led by Derrick Henry in the backfield.
If quarterback Ryan Tannehill doesn’t have time to throw the football, Burks will struggle with a high average depth of target. This over/under of 675.5 suggests too aggressive of a step-up for Burks, who totaled 444 receiving yards as a rookie.
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Drake London RECEIVING YARDS: OVER/UNDER
The run-devoted nature of Falcons head coach Arthur Smith sticks a potential wrench into London building on his fine rookie season. Only Chicago ran a higher percentage of run plays last year than Atlanta.
For reference, Smith’s unit boasted the most rushing attempts in the league in 2022, with 559. Out of 47 qualifying QBs in 2022, Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder ranked 45th and 46th in accuracy. Combined, they propelled the Falcons to a dead-last ranking in accuracy. Ridder is expected to start Week 1 for Atlanta.
Entering his second season, Ridder showed little in four games to suggest he’s a long-term solution, averaging an atrocious 6.2 yards per pass attempt. He only posted two TDs on 115 throws and a 63.5% completion rate. It’s a very small sample but concerning for passing game upside when combined with a run-happy head coach.
London finished his rookie campaign with 866 receiving yards, just above his 2023 over/under. London’s stats spiked significantly at the end of the season, due to teammate Kyle Pitts missing time with an injury. One should expect Pitts back to 100 percent health, suggesting London could fall short of 800 receiving yards this year.
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christian watson RECEIVING YARDS: OVER/UNDER
Packers sophomore wide receiver Christian Watson was inconsistent but displayed elite upside as a rookie. With unproven quarterback Jordan Love in the driver’s seat of this offense, I expect Watson to be an exciting but ultimately boom-bust producer in 2023.
Overall, the offense already ranked below average in terms of percentage of pass plays last season. And that was with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
What’s making me skeptical of Watson building on his rookie season is missing three games and parts of others with hamstring, ankle, and hip injuries in addition to a concussion throughout last year. Healthy for Weeks 10-18, Watson flashed elite ability with seven TDs and three 100-plus-yard games.
Green Bay also added Jayden Reed in the second round of this year’s draft. Ultimately all the unknowns on this Packers offense tells me to shy away from Watson adding more than 200 yards to his receiving yards total from his rookie year.
Best of luck betting NFL WR Props!