Perhaps this year’s best midseason acquisition, Christian McCaffrey found himself in the ideal system with the 49ers. The do-it-all back lines up out wide almost as much as he does in the backfield, with head coach Kyle Shanahan creating matchup nightmares for opposing defenses. However, against a stiff Eagles defense in the NFC Championship game, production won’t come easily. Below, we’ll look at Christian McCaffrey props to target Sunday.
The San Francisco 49ers are underdogs on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles and the game has a -point over/under. Place a bet on Purdy’s props by clicking any odds in the post.
Christian McCaffrey Player Props
Be sure to monitor CMC’s status for Sunday, as he did not practice Wednesday with a calf injury. For more props analysis this weekend, visit our NFL Player Props page.
Christian McCaffrey Rushing Props
As with all odds, it’s important to shop lines. Especially in the case of looking at McCaffrey’s rushing yardage, look at different books. While most offer the number at 63.5, FanDuel Sportsbook offers the line at 59.5 (at the time of publish). The same goes for his total yards from scrimmage, offered at 99.5 at most books, but 95.5 at FanDuel.
Since arriving in San Francisco, McCaffrey carried the ball 20 times once (Week 15 against Seattle) and more than 15 times four times. However, he hasn’t carried the ball fewer than 10 times since Week 11, in a 38-10 blowout of Arizona. While last week’s performance against the Cowboys might give bettors pause about McCaffrey’s effectiveness, Dallas is fifth in rush defense DVOA. The Eagles rank 21st in rush defense DVOA and 24th in yards per rush allowed.
On the other hand, Philadelphia is second in pressure rate (25.5%) and first in pass defense DVOA. With rookie Brock Purdy at the helm, Shanahan may lean into McCaffrey to help neutralize an aggressive and ferocious pass rush. Specifically off left guard Aaron Banks, McCaffrey devastated opposing defenses; he’s rushed for 9.7 yards per carry off the left guard (per PFF). The Eagles run a combination of four and five-man fronts, which allows them to have one hat on one hat and minimize double teams.
While the Eagles roster a talented pass rush, the front does struggle against the run. San Francisco is fourth in adjusted line yards, per Football Outsiders, and eighth in second level yards. The bottom line: the holes will be there, should CMC get the carries.
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Christian McCaffrey Receiving Props
The other relief against a good pass rush is screen passes and flats to running backs. Against Dallas, McCaffrey saw eight targets, his third-highest mark on the season. The other high-volume target games came against the Rams (talented but underdelivering front this year), the Raiders in overtime, and against Miami (third-highest blitz rate in the NFL).
Expect CMC to be heavily involved in the passing game this season out of the backfield to help put Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham on their heels and, in turn, protect Purdy. You can find over 4.5 receptions at plus money at many books.
Touchdowns
Yes, I do mean touchdowns with an “s.” Few players have the weekly opportunity, and as short of odds, to score multiple touchdowns as CMC. Shop the two touchdown line especially, since its price varies wildly at different books. While Caesars Sportsbook offers the prop at +375, BetRivers offers it at +525. However, with so many offensive options on the team and Purdy’s tendency to spread the ball around, it’s a tough proposition to recommend.
At this juncture, his prop to score a TD is so juiced it’s almost not worth the risk. Instead of betting to score a touchdown any time, consider breaking up your bet into half units and laying +200 “to score first half” and “to score second half.” Instead of betting 1u to win 0.77u (at -130), you’re betting 1u to win 1u (+200, minus 0.5u bet that doesn’t hit, if either). You’re sacrificing the option of an overtime touchdown, but there’s an implied 98.36% chance that overtime does not occur (at -6000 odds). If he doesn’t score a touchdown, the loss is equal both ways.
NFC Championship Odds: 49ers At Eagles
Bet on the NFC Championship Game by clicking on odds in the table below. Toggle between point spread, total, and moneyline using the dropdown menu.
