Chiefs vs. Patriots: NFL Betting Preview – October 4, 2020

Posted By Staff on October 1, 2020 - Last Updated on October 2, 2020
MNF betting odds Monday Night Football line spread Chiefs Ravens

The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs take a three-game winning streak into a matchup against the New England Patriots (2-1) on Sunday, October 4, at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City is favored by 6.5 points. The game has an over/under of 53.5.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of October 2. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings.com.

Betting Information

Total Facts

  • The over/under in this game is 52.5 points– 2.2 higher than the average total in Chiefs games this season.
  • Patriots games average 51 total points– 1.5 fewer than the total for this matchup.
  • Chiefs games have gone over 52.5 points twice this season (66.7%).
  • In two games this season, the Patriots have combined with their opponents to go over 52.5 points.
  • The total for this matchup is 6.8 fewer than the combined scoring average of the two teams.
  • The Chiefs score the fourth-most points in the league this season, while the Patriots’ offense scores the 11th-most.
  • These teams allow a combined 42 points per game– 10.5 fewer points than this over/under.
  • This contest features the league’s 11th-ranked (New England) and sixth-ranked (Kansas City) scoring defenses.
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Chiefs Betting Insights

  • Kansas City has a 2-1 record against the spread this season.
  • The Chiefs have an even ATS record of 1-1 when playing as at least seven-point favorites.
  • Kansas City’s games have gone under the point total in two out of three outings this season.

Patriots Betting Insights

  • Two New England’s three games this year have gone over the point total (66.7%).
  • New England has a 2-1 record against the spread.
  • The Patriots are 2-0 ATS when playing as at least seven-point underdogs.

Chiefs vs Patriots: Last 5 Meetings

  • In the past five meetings, Kansas City holds a 3-2 record against New England.
  • New England has put up 15 fewer points than Kansas City in their past five contests.
Chiefs vs Patriots: Last Five Meetings
Date Home Team Total Yards Result
12/8/2019 Patriots 346-278 KC 23-16 KC
10/14/2018 Patriots 500-446 NE 43-40 NE
9/7/2017 Patriots 537-371 KC 42-27 KC
9/29/2014 Chiefs 443-290 KC 41-14 KC
11/21/2011 Patriots 34-3 NE

When the Chiefs Have the Ball

  • The Chiefs, on average, score 8.3 more points per game this season (30.3) than the Patriots allow (22).
  • When they meet or exceed their scoring average this season, Kansas City is 2-0 overall and 2-0 against the spread.
  • New England is 2-0 overall and 2-0 against the spread this season in games where they allow fewer than 22 points.
  • The Chiefs gain 75.6 yards per game more (433.3) than the Patriots defense allows this season (357.7).
  • The Chiefs average 6.2 yards per play and the Patriots give up 6.2 per play.
  • In contests where the Kansas City offense totals at least their average yard output this season, they are 1-0 against the spread and 1-0 overall.
  • When New England allows fewer total yards to opposing offenses than their season average, they are 1-0 against the spread and 1-0 overall this season.
  • The Chiefs have averaged 141 yards per game on the ground this season– 18.7 yards more than the Patriots have allowed to opposing rushing attacks (122.3).
  • In games where Kansas City rushes for at least their season average this season, they are 1-0 overall and 1-0 against the spread.
  • This season, when the New England defense allows opponents to pick up less than 122.3 yards on the ground, they are 1-0 against the spread and 1-0 overall.
  • The Patriots have forced an average of 2.3 turnovers per game this year, two less than the 0.3 times Chiefs turn the football over in each contest.
  • When Kansas City doesn’t turn the football over this season, they are 2-0 overall and 1-1 against the spread.
  • New England is 2-0 against the spread and 2-0 overall this season when they force at least 2.3 turnovers in a game.

When the Patriots Have the Ball

  • The Patriots score 29 points per game, nine more than the Chiefs give up per contest (20).
  • When New England records at least 29 points, they are 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 overall.
  • Kansas City has a 2-0 record against the spread and a 2-0 record overall in games when it gives up 30.3 points or less.
  • The Patriots average 53.3 more yards per game (409), than the Chiefs give up per contest (355.7). The Patriots average 6.1 yards per play, while the Chiefs allow 5.6 per play.
  • Kansas City has a 1-0 record ATS and a 1-0 record overall when holding its opponents to 355.7 yards or less.
  • This season, the Patriots run for 25 more yards per game (178) than the Chiefs allow per contest (153).
  • New England has a 2-0 ATS record and a 2-0 overall record when they rush for at least 178 yards.
  • Kansas City is 1-0 against the spread and 1-0 overall when holding opponents to 153 rushing yards or less.
  • This year, the Patriots turn the ball over one time per game. The Chiefs force one turnover on average.
  • New England is 2-1 against the spread and 2-1 overall when it turns the ball over one or fewer times.
  • This season, Kansas City has a 2-1 record against the spread and a 3-0 record overall when it forces at least one turnover.

Chiefs Players to Watch

  • Patrick Mahomes leads the team with 898 passing yards, nine touchdowns, and no interceptions (299.3 yards per game) and has a 67.8% completion percentage (82-of-121). He also has 80 rushing yards on 10 carries with one touchdown, averaging 26.7 yards per game.
  • Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads KC with 240 yards on 55 attempts (80 yards per game) and one touchdown in three games. He also averages 34 receiving yards per game, grabbing 11 passes for 102 yards.
  • This season, Travis Kelce has 21 catches (27 targets) to lead the team with 227 yards (75.7 per game) with two touchdowns in three games.
  • Tyreek Hill has 15 catches for 222 yards and three touchdowns over three games. He averages 74 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 23 times.
  • Sammy Watkins has caught 15 passes on 20 targets for 155 yards and a touchdown, averaging 51.7 yards per game.
  • Chris Jones has 3.5 sacks to lead the team, and has also added 12 tackles over three games.
  • Anthony Hitchens leads the Chiefs with 20 tackles this year.
  • L’Jarius Sneed has picked off two passes, has 10 tackles, and three passes defended three over games.

Patriots Players to Watch

  • Cam Newton has thrown for 714 yards while completing 68.1% of his passes (62-of-91), with two touchdowns and two interceptions in three games (238 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 35 times for 149 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 49.7 yards per game.
  • Sony Michel has taken 26 attempts for 173 rushing yards (57.7 yards per game) while scoring one touchdown in three games.
  • Julian Edelman has been targeted 24 times and has 15 catches to lead the team with 259 yards (86.3 ypg).
  • N’Keal Harry has added 15 catches for 145 yards and averages 48.3 receiving yards per game.
  • Shilique Calhoun has registered 1.5 sacks, one TFL, and eight tackles in three games.
  • So far, Adrian Phillips has totaled 22 tackles, one TFL, and one interception.

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