Chiefs vs. Bills: NFL Betting Preview – October 19, 2020

Posted By Staff on October 15, 2020 - Last Updated on October 16, 2020

The top teams from opposing divisions meet when the AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) take the field as a 3.5-point favorite against the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills (4-1) on Monday, October 19. The game has a point total of 57.5.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of October 16. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Injury Report

Chiefs:
FB Anthony Sherman: Out (N/A); G Kelechi Osemele: Out (Knee); WR Sammy Watkins: Questionable (Hamstring); OT Martinas Rankin: Out (Knee); NT Khalen Saunders: Out (Elbow); CB Alex Brown: Out (Torn Acl); QB Jordan Ta’amu: Out (Illness); DB L’Jarius Sneed: Out (Collarbone); DE Mike Danna: Out (Hamstring)

Bills:
WR Andre Roberts: Questionable (Ankle); G Brian Winters: Questionable (Knee); WR John Brown: Questionable (Calf); G Jon Feliciano: Out (Torn Pectoral Muscle); G Quinton Spain: Questionable (Foot); CB Tre’Davious White: Questionable (Back); OLB Matt Milano: Questionable (Pectoral); CB Levi Wallace: Out (Ankle); OT Cody Ford: Questionable (Groin); TE Tommy Sweeney: Out (Foot); OLB Del’Shawn Phillips: Out (Quadriceps); WR Isaiah Hodgins: Out (Shoulder); RB Zack Moss: Questionable (Toe)

Total Facts

  • Chiefs games this season have posted an average total of 51.8– 5.7 points fewer than the total for this matchup.
  • Bills games average 56.2 total points– 1.3 fewer than the total for this matchup.
  • Kansas City and its opponents have combined to score more than 57.5 once.
  • In three games this season, the Bills have combined with their opponents to go over 57.5 points.
  • The total for this matchup is 0.1 fewer than the combined scoring average of the two teams.
  • The Chiefs are the eighth-highest scoring team in the league this year. The Bills have scored the 11th-most points.
  • The over/under for this game is 7.1 points higher than the two teams’ opponents scoring average (50.4).
  • This outing features the league’s 21st-ranked (Buffalo) and seventh-ranked (Kansas City) scoring defenses.
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Chiefs Betting Insights

  • Kansas City has a 3-2 record against the spread this season.
  • The Chiefs have a split ATS record of 2-2 when favored by at least 3.5 points.
  • Kansas City’s games have gone under the point total in three out of five opportunities this season.

Bills Betting Insights

  • Buffalo has compiled a 3-2 record against the spread this season.
  • The Bills are 2-1 ATS when playing as at least 3.5-point underdogs.
  • All of Buffalo’s five games this year have gone over the point total .

When the Chiefs Have the Ball

  • The Bills defense has allowed 28.4 points per game this season. The Chiefs score 29.8 points per game.
  • When they meet or exceed their scoring average this season, Kansas City is 2-1 and 2-1 against the spread.
  • When the Buffalo defense allows 28.4 points or fewer this year, they have put together a 3-0 overall record and a 2-1 record against the spread.
  • The Chiefs hold a 35.4-yard advantage in total yards gained versus total yards allowed compared to the Bills defense this season (407.2 to 371.8). The Chiefs average 6.2 yards per play while the Bills give up 5.8 per play.
  • When Kansas City hits their season average in yardage, they are 2-1 overall and 1-2 against the spread this season.
  • When Buffalo allows fewer total yards to opposing offenses than their season average, they are 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 overall this season.
  • The Chiefs average 119.4 yards per game on the ground this season– 10.8 yards more than the Bills allow to opposing rushing attacks (108.6).
  • When Kansas City runs for at least their season average this season, they are 3-0 overall and 2-1 against the spread.
  • When Buffalo holds opposing teams to 108.6 rushing yards or fewer this year, they are 2-1 against the spread and 3-0 overall.
  • The Chiefs have turned the ball over 0.6 times per game this season, while the Bills have averaged 1.2 takeaways per contest.
  • When Kansas City doesn’t turn the football over this season, they are 2-0 overall and 1-1 against the spread.
  • Buffalo’s record this season when they force more than 1.2 turnovers: 3-0 ATS, 3-0 overall

When the Bills Have the Ball

  • The Bills score 5.8 more points per game (27.8) than the Chiefs allow (22).
  • Buffalo is 2-1 against the spread and 3-0 overall a season ago when the team notches at least 27.8 points.
  • Kansas City has a 2-1 record against the spread and a 2-1 record overall in games when it gives up 29.8 points or less.
  • The Bills average 19 more yards per game (401.8), than the Chiefs allow per contest (382.8). On average, the Bills gain 6.2 yards per play, while the Chiefs give up 5.8 per play.
  • In games Kansas City holds its opponents to 382.8 or fewer yards, it has a 3-0 record ATS and a 3-0 record overall.
  • The Bills rush for 93.4 yards per game– 64.2 fewer per game than the 157.6 the Chiefs allow per contest.
  • When Buffalo rushes for at least 93.4 yards, it had a 2-2 ATS record and a 3-1 overall record.
  • This season, Kansas City is 1-1 against the spread and 1-1 overall when holding opponents to no more than 157.6 yards on the ground.
  • This year, the Bills turn the ball over 1.6 times per game, equal to the 1.6 the Chiefs force on average.
  • Buffalo has a 1-1 record against the spread and a 2-0 record overall when it turns the ball over 1.6 times or less.
  • This season, Kansas City has a 1-0 record against the spread and a 1-0 record overall when it forces at least 1.6 turnovers.

Chiefs Players to Watch

  • Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 1,474 yards, 13 touchdowns, and one pick while completing 63.7% of his passes (294.8 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 24 times for 129 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 25.8 yards per game.
  • In his rookie season, Clyde Edwards-Helaire has ran for 344 yards on 81 attempts (68.8 yards per game) while scoring one touchdown in five games. He also averages 33.8 receiving yards per game, grabbing 17 passes for 169 yards.
  • Travis Kelce has 32 receptions for 405 yards and three touchdowns. He has been targeted 45 times and averages 81 yards per game over five outings.
  • Tyreek Hill has caught 22 passes for 364 yards and four touchdowns in five games. He puts up 72.8 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 35 times.
  • Sammy Watkins has added 21 catches on 29 targets for 222 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 44.4 yards per game.
  • Chris Jones leads the Chiefs with 3.5 sacks, while adding 16 tackles over four games.
  • This year, Anthony Hitchens has collected 35 tackles.
  • Tyrann Mathieu has one interception, 23 tackles, and two passes defended five in games this season.

Bills Players to Watch

  • This season, Josh Allen has thrown for 1,591 yards, 14 touchdowns, and three interceptions on 69.3% completion (318.2 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 29 times for 100 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 20 yards per game.
  • Devin Singletary has taken 61 attempts for 237 rushing yards (47.4 yards per game) and one touchdown in five games. He’s also caught 17 passes for 122 yards (24.4 receiving yards per game).
  • Stefon Diggs has been targeted 51 times for 36 catches, 509 yards (101.8 ypg), and two touchdowns in five games this season.
  • Cole Beasley has added 24 catches for 313 yards and one touchdown in five games this year. He has been targeted 30 times and averages 62.6 receiving yards per game.
  • John Brown has caught 14 passes for 194 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 48.5 yards per game.
  • Mario Addison has two sacks, three TFL and 10 tackles over five games this season.
  • Jordan Poyer has racked up 41 tackles, two TFL, and a sack so far this year.

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