Chiefs vs Bills: Best Picks, Odds, and Predictions - NFL Week 9

We can't think of a bigger modern-day NFL rivalry than the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills. While the Bills are 4-1 against the Chiefs in the regular season since 2020, the Chiefs are 4-0 in the playoffs, eliminating the Bills from the playoffs in four of the last five seasons.

Though both teams feel as if they're off to slow starts, they come into Sunday's contest at 5-3 and 5-2, respectively. While the Bills have had a very weak strength of schedule and haven't beaten any noteworthy team since Week 1, the Chiefs have looked spectacular winning five of their last six games.

Ahead of this exciting matchup, we've pored through the data to bring you some of the best value that our favorite betting apps have to offer. We'll provide you with all the betting information you need to know, including the odds, our best picks, and our predictions for this potential thriller.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Betting Odds and Trends

Betting Odds

• Odds: Chiefs -2 (-113 via Caesars Sportsbook)
• Moneyline: Chiefs -134, Bills +110
• Over/Under: 52.5

Betting Trends

The Chiefs are 5-3 against the spread, while the Bills are 3-4. The over has hit in only three of the eight Chiefs games this season, and it's hit in four of the seven Bills games thus far. This will be the 58th career meeting between the two teams, with the Bills owning a 30-26-1 all-time record against the Kansas City Chiefs/Dallas Texans.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Best Bets

Over 52.5 (-108 via FanDuel)

Though the Bills and the Chiefs have two of the best three passing defenses in all of football, it's important to recognize how different these two teams are. Buffalo has had the second-easiest schedule in all of football thus far, and the Chiefs have played some of the best teams in the game.

They are also two of the top-seven scoring offenses in the NFL this season. We love the Chiefs to destroy the Bills' defense and put up a ton of points, though Buffalo should still be able to produce two to three touchdowns of their own.

Brashard Smith Anytime Touchdown (+305 via Caesars Sportsbook)

With Isiah Pacheco out with a knee injury, Chiefs third-string rookie seventh-round running back Brashard Smith will get his biggest look yet. While he'll still work behind Kareem Hunt, he has still earned plenty of touches, especially in the passing game. Prior to last week's win over the Commanders, Smith racked up 14 catches over a four-game span. Smith also put up 81 total yards of offense in their blowout win over the Raiders.

Hunt will get most of the touches, yet Smith should be very involved. We like him to get his first-career touchdown today.

Chiefs -6.5 (+185 via BetMGM Sportsbook)

This game could be a blowout in Kansas City's favor, and we're being quite kind taking just 6.5 points. Sprinking a little on the Chiefs at -11.5 at +400 would be highly recommended, as Buffalo's defense doesn't give us any confidence whatsoever.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Best Parlay

📊 Parlay Odds: +3412 (via FanDuel) ⭐

• Leg 1: Chiefs -1.5
• Leg 2: Over 52.5
• Leg 3: Brashard Smith Anytime Touchdown
• Leg 4: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown
• Leg 5: Brashard Smith 3+ Receptions
• Leg 6: Patrick Mahomes 2+ Passing Touchdowns

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Prediction

Chiefs 41-20

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The Bills are very weak on defense and will have some trouble against Patrick Mahomes and Rashee Rice. Even against average running backs, Buffalo has looked awful, allowing 150.3 yards of rushing per game. Only the porous Cincinnati Bengals defense has fared worse. Isiah Pacheco will miss out due to a knee injury, which means Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith will carry the load. They're both very good running backs who should have a lot of success when called upon today.

We think Josh Allen and company doesn't have enough weapons on either side of the ball to adequately compete with the best teams in the AFC, which includes the Chiefs. Although the game has hisotrically trended in Buffalo's favor, we love the Chiefs to blow the Bills out at Highmark Stadium.

Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images