Preseason expectations have materialized for Kansas City after a 3-4 start to the season. Chiefs Super Bowl odds dipped for a bit in the middle of the season when winning the division was in doubt, but after advancing through the Wild Card and an instant classic Divisional round, they now sit atop the futures board.
The Cincinnati Bengals await in the AFC Championship game after the Chief’s victory over the Buffalo Bills, a game which many sportsbook oddsmakers considered a battle between the two best teams in the NFL despite it taking place before conference championship weekend. They were certainly among the top teams in our power ratings entering the postseason in a very tight top tier, with the Bengals clearly a cut below.
Below, we’ll look at the latest Chiefs Super Bowl odds, as well as how they stack up in advanced metrics for the AFC Championship.
Current Super Bowl LVI Odds
The Chiefs have +125 Super Bowl odds after the Divisional Playoffs weekend. Once the Packers were upset Saturday night, the winner of the Chiefs – Bills game was always going to ascend to the top of the board, despite the Rams temporarily holding the spot before the conclusion of the final Divisional matchup in Kansas City.
The Chiefs were projected as this season’s best team at the beginning of the offseason, the favorite in Super Bowl opening odds at +600.
The Bills were projected as one of this season’s best teams at the beginning of the offseason, the third choice on the board in Super Bowl opening odds at +1100.
Up Next: Bengals Vs. Chiefs
The Chiefs will host the AFC Championship for an NFL record fourth consecutive season.
With the Bengals being the 4-seed in the AFC, Cincinnati will be on the road for the conference championship, and the Bengals are around touchdown underdogs in the battle for a berth in Super Bowl 56. Cincinnati was a 6.5-point home favorite in the Wild Card round against the Raiders and a 3.5-points road underdog in the divisional round to the Titans.
Second-year breakout start Joe Burrow will face one of the young NFL quarterbacks who have already made the jump from rising star to bonafide elite quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. However, it was Burrow that led the NFL in yards per attempt and finished second behind only Aaron Rodgers in passer rating during the 2021 regular season.
The Bengals have advanced despite issues along both lines. Cincy’s offensive line ranks bottom-five in the league in key protection statistics and just allowed nine sacks to Tennessee. It also lost stud defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi for the rest of the season in the first round of the playoffs.
Cincinnati was a 20-1 longshot to win the Super Bowl at the start of the postseason; whereas, its AFC Championship opponent has sat top-three in NFL futures for the vast majority of the season. Now, Kansas City is the clear favorite among the four remaining teams after NFC 1-seed Green Bay Packers lost to the 49ers.
31 points in the final 1:54 of regulation and overtime (another NFL record for the final two minutes of regulation) closed out a playoff game for the ages. A 42-36 Kansas City win over Buffalo, and Patrick Mahomes’ second touchdown pass of the game to end it without Josh Allen touching the ball in OT, despite 8.9 YPA and four touchdown passes, all to Gabriel Davis, an NFL playoff record for a wide receiver.
Below is where each AFC Championship Game participant ranked in the regular season in key metrics. Bengals ranks from only Week 1-17, as Cincinnati benched its starters in Week 18.
|Weighted Off DVOA||12th|
|Weighted Def DVOA||24th|
|Off Success Rate||13th|
|Off Dropback EPA||4th|
|Off Dropback SR||11th|
|Off Rush EPA||22nd|
|Off Rush SR||23rd|
|Def Success Rate||10th|
|Def Dropback EPA||13th|
|Def Dropback SR||10th|
|Def Rush EPA||12th|
|Def Rush SR||7th|