AFC Championship: Chiefs Super Bowl Odds After Defeating Bills

Written By Stephen Andress on January 23, 2022
chiefs super bowl odds

Preseason expectations have materialized for Kansas City after a 3-4 start to the season. Chiefs Super Bowl odds dipped for a bit in the middle of the season when winning the division was in doubt, but after advancing through the Wild Card and an instant classic Divisional round, they now sit atop the futures board.

The Cincinnati Bengals await in the AFC Championship game after the Chief’s victory over the Buffalo Bills, a game which many sportsbook oddsmakers considered a battle between the two best teams in the NFL despite it taking place before conference championship weekend. They were certainly among the top teams in our power ratings entering the postseason in a very tight top tier, with the Bengals clearly a cut below.

Below, we’ll look at the latest Chiefs Super Bowl odds, as well as how they stack up in advanced metrics for the AFC Championship.

Current Super Bowl LVI Odds

The Chiefs have +125 Super Bowl odds after the Divisional Playoffs weekend. Once the Packers were upset Saturday night, the winner of the Chiefs – Bills game was always going to ascend to the top of the board, despite the Rams temporarily holding the spot before the conclusion of the final Divisional matchup in Kansas City.

The Chiefs were projected as this season’s best team at the beginning of the offseason, the favorite in Super Bowl opening odds at +600.

The Bills were projected as one of this season’s best teams at the beginning of the offseason, the third choice on the board in Super Bowl opening odds at +1100.

Up Next: Bengals Vs. Chiefs

The Chiefs will host the AFC Championship for an NFL record fourth consecutive season.

With the Bengals being the 4-seed in the AFC, Cincinnati will be on the road for the conference championship, and the Bengals are around touchdown underdogs in the battle for a berth in Super Bowl 56. Cincinnati was a 6.5-point home favorite in the Wild Card round against the Raiders and a 3.5-points road underdog in the divisional round to the Titans.

Second-year breakout start Joe Burrow will face one of the young NFL quarterbacks who have already made the jump from rising star to bonafide elite quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. However, it was Burrow that led the NFL in yards per attempt and finished second behind only Aaron Rodgers in passer rating during the 2021 regular season.

The Bengals have advanced despite issues along both lines. Cincy’s offensive line ranks bottom-five in the league in key protection statistics and just allowed nine sacks to Tennessee. It also lost stud defensive lineman Larry Ogunjobi for the rest of the season in the first round of the playoffs.

Cincinnati was a 20-1 longshot to win the Super Bowl at the start of the postseason; whereas, its AFC Championship opponent has sat top-three in NFL futures for the vast majority of the season. Now, Kansas City is the clear favorite among the four remaining teams after NFC 1-seed Green Bay Packers lost to the 49ers.

31 points in the final 1:54 of regulation and overtime (another NFL record for the final two minutes of regulation) closed out a playoff game for the ages. A 42-36 Kansas City win over Buffalo, and Patrick Mahomes’ second touchdown pass of the game to end it without Josh Allen touching the ball in OT, despite 8.9 YPA and four touchdown passes, all to Gabriel Davis, an NFL playoff record for a wide receiver.

Advanced Metrics

Below is where each AFC Championship Game participant ranked in the regular season in key metrics. Bengals ranks from only Week 1-17, as Cincinnati benched its starters in Week 18.

MetricBengals
Weighted Off DVOA12th
Weighted Def DVOA24th
Off EPA/Play11th
Off Success Rate13th
Off Dropback EPA4th
Off Dropback SR11th
Off Rush EPA22nd
Off Rush SR23rd
Def EPA/Play12th
Def Success Rate10th
Def Dropback EPA13th
Def Dropback SR10th
Def Rush EPA12th
Def Rush SR7th

*Sources: DVOA and EPA/SR

Chiefs Super Bowl odds

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Stephen Andress

Stephen Andress joined Catena Media as Managing Editor of TheLines.com in March 2021. He began his career as a sports anchor and reporter in Eugene, OR before moving to Louisville, KY. There he covered the Kentucky Derby, Sugar Bowl and three consecutive Final Fours. Stephen later won an Emmy award while working for the Indianapolis Colts. More recently, he produced content for the PGA TOUR and multiple fantasy football and sports betting websites. Nothing has excited him more in his career than seeing legalized sports betting in the United States and the opportunity to share his knowledge and enthusiasm for it. His hobbies include kicking his high school friends' butts in fantasy football, Japanese whisky and Kentucky bourbon, golf outrights and supporting RIP Medical Debt, a charity which works to wipe out medical bills for those who have been unable to cover the cost of getting sick.

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