The Kansas City Chiefs had a few anxious moments along the way, but after toppling the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game by a 38-24 score, they are in the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season. Patrick Mahomes was able to overcome injuries suffered in a Divisional Round win over the Browns to start against Buffalo and throw for 325 yards and three touchdowns.
All that now stands between Kansas City and a second straight Lombardi Trophy is a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team led by a quarterback with a record six Super Bowl rings in Tom Brady. What makes the matchup all the more intriguing is the fact Tampa Bay will be the first team to try and win a Super Bowl title on its home field. Facing a player with the pedigree of Brady and a team with the Buccaneers’ talent on their home turf in the year’s biggest game would make almost any team in the league an underdog; yet, the Mahomes-led Chiefs are an exception.
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Super Bowl Sunday is annually the biggest single day on the sports betting calendar, and this year’s star-studded showdown should certainly be no different. Sportsbooks are already brimming with an abundance of betting options for the showdown between Mahomes and the legendary Brady. With that in mind, let’s examine 10 ways you can bet on the Chiefs in Super LV.
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10. Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Mahomes was nearly as prolific this past regular season as during his 2018 NFL MVP campaign, racking up 4,740 yards despite sitting out the Week 17 finale. That amounts to 316.0 passing yards per contest for the reigning Super Bowl MVP, without factoring in the 325 he put up on the Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Mahomes also tallied a season-high 462 versus the Bucs back in Week 12, and he also had tallies of 348 (vs. Raiders), 385 (vs. Ravens) and 393 (vs. Dolphins) on the road. The Bucs gave up 283.8 passing yards per home game this season.
Here are some over/unders from PointsBet on Mahomes to reach a certain passing yard total:
- Mahomes to get 250+ passing yards: -700
- Mahomes to get 300+ passing yards: -220
- Mahomes to get 350+ passing yards: +110
- Mahomes to get 400+ passing yards: +320
- Mahomes to get 450+ passing yards: +1000
And here are his best prop prices:
9. Point Spread
The most popular bet for NFL games is on the point spread, and the Chiefs – despite being a legitimate road team to the host Buccaneers – are currently point favorites. Kansas City is 8-10 (44.4%) against the spread this regular season and postseason, including 4-4 as a road team and 1-3 (25.0%) against NFC opponents.
8. Tyreek Hill Receptions
The Chiefs pass an elevated 61.82% of the time in 2020-21, and Hill averaged just under six receptions per game this regular season on nine targets per contest. However, both figures have shot up in KC’s first two postseason contests, with Hill putting together 17 receptions on 21 targets. Hill also saw a whopping 16 targets in last year’s Super Bowl and parlayed them into nine catches. With the Bucs giving up 13 receptions, 269 yards and three TDs to the speedster back in Week 12, the props will undoubtedly be on the bloated side. Nevertheless, the reception figure should be a bit more reasonable than the yardage, which gives it a chance to be the more viable alternative if you’re looking to put some money on Hill’s individual performance.
7. Single Game Parlay
Parlay bettors will love the offers at PointsBet Sportsbook as PB has Single Game Parlays. That allows bettors the chance to parlay items in a single game, such as the spread, over/under, player props, team points and more. To sign up for PointsBet go here.
6. Travis Kelce Receptions
Kelce posted a career-high 1,416 receiving yards at a career-high 13.5 yards per catch this past regular season, posting a new high-water mark of 23 receptions of greater than 20 yards in the process. The temptation might be to go Over on whatever his yardage prop might be (initially 94.5 at PointsBet), but the Buccaneers held the Pro Bowl tight end to a modest 10.1 yards per grab back in Week 12 and limited tight ends to 9.7 yards per reception overall. Kelce’s reception prop may very well be the way to go, given that he averaged seven per game in the regular season, 10.5 over the first two postseason contests, and he posted eight against the Bucs in the regular season meeting. Tampa Bay also gave up the fifth-most receptions (86) to TEs this past season.
The Chiefs went 8-0 straight-up on the road this season. If you simply want to bet on whether the Chiefs will win or lose, go the moneyline route over “point spread.” Of course you can parlay the Chiefs moneyline with another Super LV wager.
4. Alternate Point Spread
If the current Chiefs point spread seems too small to you, you can always explore an alternate point spread. For example, if you think the Chiefs will be a lot more dominant than currently projected and will actually win by double digits, you can get +260 odds on a Chiefs -10.5 line at FanDuel Sportsbook.
3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire Receptions
This is a prop with some decent risk attached, as Le’Veon Bell (knee) will reportedly be back for the Super Bowl and Darrel Williams has also performed well out of the Chiefs backfield of late. However, Edwards-Helaire logged 32 snaps against the Bills during the AFC title clash in his return from a three-game absence, and he brought in 36 of 54 targets during the regular season. CEH has a gear that neither Bell nor Williams can reach, and with Tampa Bay typically stonewalling running backs on the ground as noted earlier, teams often turned to the short passing game as an alternative to the run. That led to the Bucs facing a robust 125 targets to running backs this past season and allowing an NFL-high 101 receptions to the position. Edwards-Helaire could therefore certainly have a chance of exceeding a reasonable prop in this category if he sees the field for at least as many snaps as he did versus Buffalo.
2. Game Over/Under and Team Totals
The Chiefs have averaged 29.6 points per game overall this regular season and postseason, including 31.6 per road contest. The game total for over/under betting in the Super Bowl is a whopping , with Kansas City’s team total 30.0 points at most books. The Chiefs put up 27 points on Tampa Bay in the regular season meeting, although 20 of those came in a spectacular first half. The Buccaneers allowed 23.9 points per home game but did give up over 30 points twice at Raymond James Stadium. Therefore, KC and its potent offense should have a solid opportunity to eventually reach their projected number.
1. Patrick Mahomes TD passes
As already alluded to, Chiefs coach Andy Reid is happy to keep the ball in the air as much as the situation dictates, and with the Buccaneers ranked No. 1 with just 81.4 rushing yards per game and 3.35 RB yards per carry allowed this season and postseason, that’s exactly how his game plan for this contest might shape up. Tampa Bay’s elite work versus ground attacks has led to them facing an NFL-high 65.4% pass play rate this regular season and postseason, meaning chances are overwhelmingly high that Mahomes will turn to the air when within striking distance of the end zone. The 2018 NFL MVP averaged 2.5 TD passes per game this regular season and threw three against the Bills in the AFC title game. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay allowed the eighth-most TD passes (29), including three to Mahomes in Week 12.