Best Chiefs Vs. Bills Sunday Player Prop Bets, SGP Promos: Can Rashee Rice Go Off Again?

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Written By Derek Wagner | Last Updated
chiefs anytime touchdown

The final game on the NFL Divisional Playoffs schedule is a rematch from Week 14. The Kansas City Chiefs head to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Buffalo is a home favorite on betting apps, with Kansas City on the moneyline to win the game. Both are in the second tier of contenders in Super Bowl odds. The Over/Under is set at . Let’s dive into Chiefs vs. Bills player props to see if we can exploit a few matchups. Below, I’ll explain who I’m targeting in SNF player props.

Use our free Prop Finder Tool and shop Chiefs vs. Bills player prop prices. Click on the sportsbook odds below to bet now.

Bills WR Dalton Kincaid over receiving yards
Underdog Picks: Higher Than 40.5 Receiving Yards

While he didn’t eclipse this number in Week 14 against the Chiefs, we can be optimistic that the rookie out of Utah can hit this number in the divisional round. Over the last three weeks, Kincaid has seen the field for 82 passing snaps compared to Dawson Knox’s 42. Knox is being filtered out in favor of Kincaid in the passing game, so there’s little reason for us to expect that to change.

Additionally, the Chiefs have a favorable matchup on the outside, with L’Jarius Sneed covering Stefon Diggs. Sneed was targeted seven times against Buffalo in Week 14 and surrendered one catch for one yard while notching three pass breakups. Sneed dominated that matchup, so look for the Bills to gravitate their passing attack away from him tonight.

Chiefs WR Rashee Rice over receiving yards
PrizePicks: Higher Than 49.5 receiving yards

Based on sheer target volume, Rice should go over this number. In the last two games with Patrick Mahomes starting, Rice tallied 12 targets in each game. That, coupled with Kelce aging and slowing down as the season has worn on, makes me believe that the Chiefs will lean heavily on Rice in the postseason.

Furthermore, Buffalo’s top cornerback Rasul Douglas missed last week’s game against the Steelers with a knee injury. If he’s unable to suit up, or the knee is still bothering him, Rice could be on the cusp of another big day in the passing game for KC.

Bills WR Stefon Diggs under longest reception

Diggs’ aDOT in the past five weeks has only eclipsed 15 yards once, in Week 17 against the Patriots. Since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, Diggs has gone under this number in six of eight games. The offense simply isn’t relying on him for explosive plays under Brady. Those duties have instead fallen to Khalil Shakir, Kincaid, and James Cook.

As previously noted, he also draws the matchup against Sneed, one of the top corners in football. He’s fantastic in coverage, but he’s also the most penalized cornerback in football, having been flagged for 11 penalties this season. When he gets beat, he’ll get flagged for holding or PI, which could aid this if Diggs beats him.

Furthermore, the Chiefs’ defense has allowed only 39 explosive pass plays of 20+ yards, the fewest in the NFL. Part of that is because of Steve Spagnuolo’s willingness to dial up the blitz, as KC boasts the seventh-highest blitz rate in the league. That blitz rate forces most quarterbacks into rushed decisions, which in turn limits explosive plays, especially on the outside where Sneed is lurking. In their Week 14 matchup, the explosive plays went to James Cook when the Spags decided to dial up pressure.

More Chiefs vs bills player props

TheLines.com writer Jeffrey Schreiber submitted the following player prop bets.

Stefon Diggs Under Receiving Yards

Name recognition is the only reason this receiving yards line is so high. Unfortunately, Diggs isn’t the same producer as he was in years prior. The Bills have changed their offensive philosophy under OC Joe Brady, and Diggs showed up with a foot issue on the injury report this week.

Run-heavy game plans and quick passes are now the norm in Buffalo. Diggs has failed to reach the end zone since Week 12 and has gone 12 straight games falling below 100 yards receiving. He has averaged 51.3 receiving yards per game over that span.

The matchup is brutal for Diggs against this Chiefs secondary. His chances of finally going over this number are low. The Chiefs have allowed a league-low 44.2 yards per game to opposing WR1’s. The most yards a WR1 target has had against Kansas City in a game this season is 73. This includes facing some elite WR1’s, including Tyreek Hill (62 yards each game),  A.J. Brown (eight), and Justin Jefferson (28). When these teams played in Week 14, Diggs had a season-low 24 receiving yards.

Travis Kelce Props

Kelce continued his career playoff dominance last week, catching seven of ten targets for 71 yards. Although Kelce didn’t have a great regular season, he produces far better stats in the playoffs, as seen in his performance last week. He has now surpassed 70 receiving yards in every one of his last ten playoff games. Line makers haven’t baked in his playoff success, as his receiving yards line is sitting in the low 60s at sportsbooks.

Kelce has not scored a touchdown since Week 11, but his 29.4% target share last week was his highest in a game since Week 7. The Bills have done an excellent job in limiting tight ends to 6.6 yards per target (sixth) and a 2.6% touchdown rate (fifth), but the status of Bernard and Dodson is vital for hopes of defending Kelce in this game.

We saw Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth have a huge game last week against this banged-up Bills defense, leading the team in receiving yards.

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Props

Another example of sportsbooks not adjusting to tendencies or trends during the playoffs is QB rushing production. Mahomes continued this playoff trend last week. He scrambled for 41 yards, something he did a lot this season. He ran for a career-high 413 yards in the regular season. Mahomes has now rushed for 40+ yards in back-to-back playoff games. 

The Bills pressured Mahomes on 37.8% of his dropbacks in Week 14. If Buffalo can generate any pressure in this game again, Mahomes will certainly be forced to use his legs. This rushing yards line for Mahomes is too low for a regular season game. 

  • Rushing Yards: Over
  • Rushing Attempts: Over
  • Longest Rush: Over

Best of luck betting on Chiefs vs. Bills player props for the Divisional Round!

STATS
Chiefs logo Chiefs KC
Bills logo Bills BUF
Offense Ranking OFF RNK 1st 2nd
Defense Ranking DEF RNK 11th 6th
Offense Net Yards Per Game OFF NET YPG 413.6 397.6
Defense Net Yards Per Game DEF NET YPG 328.2 319.1
Passing Yards Per Game PASS YPG 297.8 258.1
Turnovers Committed Per Game TOC PG 1.4 1.7

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  • Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord with more than 4,000 community members and our staff sharing betting ideas daily. Go to the #roles server to get push notifications to the Discord app from TheLines.com staff when they lock in a bet.

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