Heat At Bulls NBA Play-In Tournament Odds, Picks: Chicago Undervalued?

Before the postseason officially tips off on Saturday, the ninth-seeded Chicago Bulls host the 10th-seeded Miami Heat in the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament. The victor will advance in the tournament to play for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Let’s handicap the Heat at Bulls odds, including key analytics and my prediction.

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heat at bulls odds: spread, moneyline, total

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Points Scored

PRA (Total Points + Rebounds + Assists)

Will Talent Trump Experience?

Over the last two-plus decades, no NBA head coach has helped bettors cash in more often than Erik Spoelstra, helping the Heat go 108-83-1 against the spread (ATS) in postseason play. Although this isn’t technically in the playoff game, Spoelstra’s pedigree is unmatched on the biggest stage.

Additionally, Miami fell to Chicago on April 9. I expect Spoelstra to have a sound game plan with a quick turnaround, and the Heat have far more postseason savvy than the youthful Bulls.

While the trends and season-long Estimated Plus-Minus sides with Miami (+0.1) over Chicago (-1.9), the Bulls have been the better team since the All-Star break. From Feb. 20 onward, Chicago tallied a 17-10 record with a net rating of +4.8. Conversely, Miami went 12-17 with a net rating of +3.0.

According to Cleaning The Class, the Bulls also rank above the Heat regarding their Efficiency Differential (+4.6 vs. +3.1) since March. Unsurprisingly, Coby White and Co. boast a more efficient half-court offense during that stretch. Guided by White and rookie Matas Buzelis, their pick-and-roll ball handler action is especially potent, which the Heat have struggled to defend (40th percentile on a points-per-possession basis).

Meanwhile, Chicago’s transition attack is far superior to Miami’s. Neither squad is known for generating many second-chance opportunities, so if the Bulls control the tempo via their rebounding prowess, I project them to cover the spread.

Good luck with your bets on the Bulls vs. Heat matchup in the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament!

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