2023 Chicago Bears Odds: Will Justin Fields Reach Market Expectations?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on July 11, 2023

According to the betting market, Chicago has a slightly heightened ceiling after finishing with the NFC’s worst record in 2022. Let’s delve into my projections and whether there’s any value in wagering on Chicago Bears odds. Click any of the odds below to place a wager at the best sports betting sites.

Since it’s only July, NFL win totals, NFC North odds (see below), and NFL MVP odds are the primary focus of this article.

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Bears Odds: Appraising 2023 Offseason

Although the Bears finished 3-14 overall in 2022, it was considered a “rebuilding year.” They also went 1-7 in realistic one-score games. Hence, there’s reason for optimism if you buy into positive variance — at least on the surface.

Then, there’s D.J. Moore. Chicago dealt the No. 1 pick to Carolina for the star wide receiver and a bevy of draft selections. One of them turned into Darnell Wright, the Tennessee product-turned-Bears’ starting right tackle. Meanwhile, Moore gifts Justin Fields with a WR1 that he’s lacked in his first two pro seasons, generating the second-most grabs of 20-plus yards last season.

Additionally, they signed ex-Packers tight end Robert Tonyan, pairing him with third-year weapon Cole Kmet. But outside of adding defensive end Demarcus Walker, Chicago failed to drastically refine its pass rush, which delivered the league’s second-lowest pressure rate. Walker produced eight sacks a campaign ago yet certainly profited from the Titans’ stout defensive front.

There are plenty of concerns in the secondary as well. In that regard, the Bears’ most notable injection is second-round corner Tyrique Stevenson. Consequently, Chicago doesn’t possess much legwork to improve upon its dead-last standing in EPA allowed.

Comparatively speaking, the Bears’ win total was 5.5 last season, along with +1200 divisional odds. Even if the Lions fail to cash as the betting favorite, the Vikings regress, and Jordan Love squanders his chance in Green Bay, bettors must firmly believe that Fields will dramatically enhance his efficiency through the air to either bet over 7.5 wins (-135) or +400 odds to make the worst-to-first leap in the NFC North.

Related: Are Joe Burrow & Bengals’ Odds Overvalued?

Are Fields’ MVP Odds Justified?

With Moore in the mix, as well as Chase Claypool, Darnell Mooney, and the aforementioned tight ends, the expectation is that Fields will undergo a transformation — similar to Jalen Hurts’ 2022 campaign.

Despite Fields’ tremendous upside on the ground, his dropback EPA slotted in at No. 22 among qualified quarterbacks last season. To make matters worse, he not only tallied the second-lowest accuracy on throws to open receivers in 2022 but also ranks dead-last in that department over the last six years.

Unless bettors are confident in Fields revamping his precision, his MVP odds are a bit rich. For context, his 4.35% implied probability is in the same ballpark as Tua Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott. However, it’s worth nothing one of the godfathers of EPA states below that Fields’ poor standing isn’t necessarily predictive.

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