Chelsea Vs. Borussia Dortmund: 2022-23 Champions League Round Of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on March 7, 2023
Champions league odds

The UEFA Champions League round of 16 continues on Tuesday, March 7 with Leg 2 of Chelsea vs. Borussia Dortmund. Bettors can catch the broadcast at 3 p.m. EST on various streaming platforms like fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. Dortmund has the edge after taking a 1-0 win at home in February. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match.

Chelsea Vs. Borussia Dortmund Champions League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. 

If the aggregate-goal score after two legs is tied, there will be two 15-minute periods of extra time. However, it’s possible for a Champions League match to go to extra time with a Leg 2 score that was not tied. In this case, three-way moneyline bets for Leg 2 are graded for the team that leads after 90 minutes. 

If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out on the team to move on to the next round, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

Chelsea Team Preview

Not only is Chelsea in serious danger of not qualifying for next season’s Champions League, but they are in serious danger of not qualifying for any of UEFA’s trio of annual club competitions. 

At present, the Blues only find themselves just within the top 10 of the Premier League. Manager Graham Potter, in turn, only just finds himself with gainful employment and will look to Tuesday night for some salvation. 

However, a search for such relief may be one that becomes fruitless. And with Chelsea’s attack bearing little in the way of fruit in recent weeks, a lack of goals has been the root of all evil for the West London outfit.

Yes, the Blues may have spent an obscene amount of dollars in the January transfer window. But, they made a cardinal sin within soccer. Buying an abundance of creative attacking players does no good if you do not have a striker to finish the chances they make.

With that said, they do have a striker to call upon. But, for whatever reason, manager Potter has decided not to do so. The man in question is Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Thus far, he has not been allowed to try and provide the answers. The former Dortmund forward will not play on Tuesday. A difficult task for Chelsea has just become even tougher. They may need to score two goals but at present, even finding one seems an incredibly tall order.

Borussia Dortmund Team Preview

Although Borussia Dortmund may have had a sluggish start to their season, they are certainly going up through the gears since their post-World Cup return and are hitting top speed at just the right time. Level on points with perennial Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich at the time of writing, they also have an advantage in their back pocket as they travel to Chelsea in this round of 16 Champions League clash.

They may have had to ride their luck in Dortmund just a fortnight ago, but like any good boxer, they let the opposition tire themselves before finding the right time to place them squarely on the canvas. Now though, they will look to not only edge through on points, but land the biggest blow to Chelsea of all. One that comes with the German outfit advancing to the last eight and damaging the hosts’ chances of playing in Europe next season.

Of course, it must not be forgotten that Edin Terzić’s men are one of the form teams across the continent. In the nine matches that they have played in all competitions since the turn of the year, they have won every single one.

Progress in the German Cup, an entry into this season’s Bundesliga title race, and potentially 90 minutes away from making further progress in the Champions League. Now is an incredibly good time to be a supporter of the black and yellow.

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Since the UCL draws for new matchups after the round of 16, there’s no set bracket for fans to follow just yet.

Chelsea Vs. Borussia Dortmund Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Borussia Dortmund7115+69.69.3+0.3

Matchup History

The only previous Champions League meeting between the two took place in Germany last month. Dortmund earned the bragging rights in the first leg. Can they do the same in London on Tuesday? 

Chelsea Vs. Borussia Dortmund Champions League Odds: Bets To Consider

Draw And Under 2.5: +380

Before Chelsea play host to Leeds in this weekend’s Premier League encounter, the Blues have scored just six goals since their return from the enforced World Cup hiatus. Even if they do add to that tally on Saturday, plenty of concerns exist for manager Graham Potter.

Concerns that come with no true center-forward to lead the line on Tuesday. And with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang not registered to play in the Champions League knockout phase, one wonders if manager Potter is now regretting the decision.

After suffering a 1-0 defeat in Germany, Chelsea has it all to do on Tuesday night. And even though they have home advantage to call upon, I cannot see them doing enough to make the best use of it.

Especially as Borussia Dortmund know that they only need a draw to qualify for the last eight. That is not to say that the famous black and yellow will necessarily play for a draw, but there will be no complaints if that is the outcome after 90 minutes.

An outcome that I envisage being the case. I also envisage this being a rather low-scoring affair. If it is going to be a draw, then I simply cannot see Chelsea scoring twice at Stamford Bridge.

This is why I have opted for the tie and under 2.5 total goals. A combination of factors that not only covers the goalless draw but a 1-1 stalemate at the same time. Bad news for Chelsea but great news for those who take this tip on board.

Halftime/Full-Time Draw: +575

To build on this point even further, I have opted for a stalemate at both minutes 45 and 90. If I am backing the draw already, then the logical outcome would be that neither side ends either half with a winning advantage.

This means for this second offering to come good, the score must be either 0-0 or 1-1 at half-time and full-time. In fairness, it could just as easily be 2-2 at each interval but if this was the case, it would scupper the first tip on offer.

However, just like in my reasoning above, I do not envisage this being a high-scoring encounter and with Chelsea struggling to land a glove on anyone right now, their same issues in attack will likely come to prominence again on Tuesday. 

The Blues know that they cannot let this tie get away from them and due to this, I can see the first half being as cagey as it was back in Germany almost two weeks ago. It was all square at the break and it could be precisely the same in West London.

Of course, Dortmund did find a winning goal through Karim Adeyemi and I would not be too surprised if he or one of his teammates managed to break the deadlock again. If that is the case, Chelsea will have to go for broke.

In the scenario where the Blues have to find two goals, I can only see them finding one at best and as long as both their goal and Dortmund’s effort come in the same half, we will squeeze some more value out of the market.

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