2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Preview: Everything To Know About Colonial Country Club

In one of the most competitive stretches of the PGA TOUR schedule, the stars continue to shine in the Lone Star State. Up next, we head to Fort Worth, Texas, for the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. Let’s take a look at this weekend’s Charles Schwab Challenge odds.

We’ve grown accustomed to seeing Colonial CC on the schedule each year, as it is the longest-running host course on TOUR. While it’s gone through a myriad of different sponsors, 2023 marks the 77th total installment of this event dating to 1946. Notably, it served as host for golf’s return from its COVID hiatus in June 2020. It attracted an unusually strong field and saw uncharacteristic course conditions crop up.

Colonial CC is a quintessential positional course that has historically mitigated distance advantage and has produced a diverse cast of winners. Sam Burns and Jason Kokrak have taken a more aggressive, driver-heavy approach en route to their victories over the last two years, which adds a new dynamic to what has traditionally been a plodder’s course.

Per usual, the players who catch the hottest irons and putter are the ones who have historically prevailed at this event. There will be an added premium on mid-irons and accuracy off the tee in order to work the ball around this golf course and create the best angles to attack pins and generate scoring opportunities. We’ll run through the key facts and info about Colonial CC ahead of the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge.

CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE ODDS: THE FAVORITES

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THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

The Charles Schwab Challenge is an invitational field, limited to 120 players, maintaining the standard “top-65 and ties” cut rules. For DFS purposes, that means we can expect a higher 6/6 percentage this week.

A storied event which lacks the “Elevated” status bump on this season’s schedule, the Charles Schwab Challenge has attracted a strong field despite its position between the PGA Championship and the Memorial Tournament.

Texas native Scottie Scheffler headlines the field this week and will have the home crowd on his side all week, just as we saw recently at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He’ll be a prohibitive favorite after losing in a playoff to Sam Burns last year. Scheffler is joined by seven others in the OWGR top-20, as Max Homa, Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, Sam Burns, Collin Morikawa, and Sungjae Im figure to open as the favorites.

Burns is back in the field to defend his title after edging past Scheffler in a playoff amidst extremely dry, firm, fast, and difficult Sunday afternoon conditions. In addition to Burns, we’ll also see Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner, Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, Zach Johnson, and Rory Sabbatini return to the field as past champs.

INTRODUCTION TO COLONIAL CC

Colonial CC is a classical, tree-lined, positional golf course with rich history. As a par 70 just over 7,200 yards, it’s stood the test of time and challenged the field year after year. It keeps scores in check and has led to many dramatic finishes.

Precision off the tee, accuracy on approach, and putting pedigree are the consistent key characteristics we’ve seen from winners like Burns, Spieth, Kirk, Rose, Kisner, Jason Kokrak, Daniel Berger, and Kevin Na.

The winning score has pushed beyond -15 only twice since 2011. With the area receiving less rain than recent years, I would expect a winning score of around -12 to -13.  Dallas may have the most dense population of golf obsessives in the United States. So, the Charles Schwab Challenge has always welcomed an electric crowd atmosphere. Local Texans have taken much pride in competing each year. The event should have the full attention of players like Scheffler and Spieth despite the Major turnaround.

For Colonial CC course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past Charles Schwab Challenge winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our Charles Schwab Challenge page.

Editor’s Note

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

Course History has proven very predictive at Colonial CC. Of the last eight Charles Schwab Challenge winners, five (Kokrak, Na, Kisner, Spieth and Kirk) had posted a T10 or better finish within three years prior. Only Rose within the past decade won in his debut appearance. The list of players with a T10 finish over the last three years at this event includes: Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Justin Rose, Emiliano Grillo, Collin Morikawa, Brian Harman, Brendon Todd, Charley Hoffman, Sungjae Im, Davis Riley, Cam Davis, Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Troy Merritt, Scott Stallings, and Patton Kizzire.

Looking at recent course history, 13 players have posted multiple T15 finishes within the last five years: Spieth, Finau, Rose, Harman, Grillo, Morikawa, Hoffman, Todd, Kirk, Sabbatini, Sungjae Im, Andrew Putnam, and Russell Knox.

Eight players have avoided missing the cut over each of the last five years (min. three appearances): Spieth, Rose, Morikawa, Sabbatini, Kirk, Tyler Duncan, Mark Hubbard, and Byeong Hun An.

The top 10 players in terms of overall course history at Colonial CC are: Spieth, Kisner, Rose, Tony Finau, Harris English, Brian Harman, Collin Morikawa, Chris Stroud, David Lingmerth, and Emiliano Grillo.

Jordan Spieth

One could argue Spieth’s history and consistency at the Charles Schwab is the most dominant of any currently active PGA player on a given course. He has amassed 87.3 strokes gained on the field over 36 career rounds, an average of 2.7 per round. For context, Finau ranks No. 2 in total strokes gained at Colonial CC with 44.1 total strokes over 28 rounds. He is the only player in this field to have gained even half as many strokes at this event as Spieth over the same span.

It’s a home game for Spieth in his native DFW area. He’ll stay in his childhood home for the week and put on a show in front of local friends, family and fans. A wrist injury held him out of the other local Texas event at TPC Craig Ranch, but after going four rounds at Oak Hill last week, we should expect him to return to Fort Worth, even if still not 100%.

In nine career appearances dating back to 2013, Spieth has one victory, three runner-ups, and nine total finishes within the top 14. His worst outing came in 2018 when he finished T32 while still gaining over seven strokes from tee to green. Despite the lingering injury concerns, Spieth is still expected to open as the second favorite on the board this week behind Scheffler.

Course Comps

Colonial CC slots in well with some of the other shorter, positional, wind-exposed courses we see on the yearly TOUR schedule. A similar formula of driving accuracy, approach precision and strong putting continues to be the script to find success here. I lean to Sedgefield CC as the top overall comp course. Kisner and Sergio Garcia have won both events within the last 10 years. We’ve seen players like Reed, Snedeker, Poston, Na, Simpson, Spieth, and Adam Scott post T5 finishes in both events over recent years. Both par 70s share a similar emphasis on those key characteristics of driving accuracy, approach and long-term putting.

In addition to Sedgefield, I also like Memorial Park for a comp as another challenging, wind-exposed Texas course which featured a recent Kokrak win and strong performances from Finau.

TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town, Pebble Beach GL, Innisbrook Resort, and Waialae CC have also shared similar overlapping leaderboards with shared emphasis on positional play and strong iron play from inside 200 yards.

Lastly, Austin Country Club jumps out as one of the better comps from a player profile and leaderboard overlap standpoint, even if played in two different formats of golf. Kisner, Billy Horschel, Ian Poulter, and Bubba Watson have each had recent success on both of these shorter Texas tracks.

Combine performance across this list, and the top 10 players in Comp Course History here are: Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, Brendon Todd, JT Poston, Kevin Kisner, and Sungjae Im.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER

• SG: APP / GIRs Gained
• Par 4: 350-450
• Prox: 125-200
• Good Drives Gained / Driving Accuracy
• SG: Putting (L36, Bent)
• Doubles Avoided
• Course & Comp Course History

We’ve seen a sticky formula of repeated success on courses which remove distance advantage and instead reward control both off the tee and on approach. When we also consider that scoring will remain in check – likely no further beyond a -15 winner – we have less randomness to account for. As with most 7,200-yard courses, irons will likely decide things. The top-10 in terms of SG: APP entering this week are Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Rickie Fowler, Tom Hoge, Max Homa, Nate Lashley, Tommy Fleetwood, Eric Cole, and Ben Martin.

Precision off the tee remains of vital importance this week. The heavily treelined set up will block-out approach shots for any significant misses. Since the rough is not incredibly penal, the Good Drives Gained stat has been a bit more predictive of success at Colonial CC than pure accuracy. There is more of an advantage to hitting drives to the correct side of the hole than simply finding the fairway. The top 10 in terms of Good Drives Gained are: Collin Morikawa, Tyler Duncan, Russell Henley, Hayden Buckley, Scottie Scheffler, Stephan Jaeger, Ryan Armour, Chez Reavie, Nate Lashley, and Sungjae Im.

A combination of Good Drives Gained, SG: APP, Prox: 100-200, and weighted SG: P (Bent and Total) looks like the simplest approach to narrowing down a player pool this week. Eleven players rate out above average in each of those categories: Tony Finau, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, Chris Kirk, Si Woo Kim, Adam Svensson, Nick Taylor, Nate Lashley, and Tom Hoge.

Approach from Shorter Range

Unique to Colonial CC, 82% of approach shots will come from inside 200 yards, so it’s a great week to hone in on players who thrive with their wedges and mid-irons. The top-10 players in terms of SG: APP with Prox 200+ removed are: Collin Morikawa, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Max Homa, Russell Knox, Charley Hoffman, Si Woo Kim, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Rickie Fowler, and Viktor Hovland.

Honing in on the most well-rounded approach players from shorter range, are nine players rank above-average in Proximity from 100-125, 125-150, 150-175, and 175-200 yards: Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Russell Knox, Scottie Scheffler, Michael Kim, Max Homa, Rickie Fowler, Charley Hoffman, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

Other notable value players who are poor from over 200+ yards, but rank inside the top 30 from shorter ranges include Max McGreevy, Brian Stuard, Dylan Frittelli, and Stewart Cink. 

Looking at the hole ranges this week, it’s also key to look at performance on par 4s from the 350-450 range. Half the holes on this courses fall within these distances. The top-10 in P4: 350-450 Scoring are: Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, Taylor Moore, Tony Finau, Akshay Bhatia, Denny McCarthy, Taylor Montgomery, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler, and Aaron Baddeley.

Correlation

Looking at the correlation charts this week, it’s notable to see the precipitous drop in importance of Par-5 Scoring at Colonial CC compared to TOUR average. That makes sense on this par 70, which features one par 5 reachable in two for the full field and a second par 5 not reachable in two for anyone.

We also see a notable drop in the importance of SG: OTT and P4: 450-500. Jason Kokrak and Sam Burns have exceled in both areas in their wins each of the last two years. Over the history of this event, however, the shorter hitters have found the most success, capitalizing on their driving accuracy and short to mid irons. 

Par 4: 350-400 and Par 4: 400-450 represent the biggest climbers in terms of importance at Colonial CC, considering half the holes this week will fall within these two ranges, a bit of an unusual set up for a PGA TOUR course.

Just 10 players in the field rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Taylor Moore, Denny McCarthy, Keith Mitchell, and Chris Kirk.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: CHRIS KIRK

If Colonial Country Club has proven to be among the most sticky venue for course horses to find repeated success at, then it makes sense to start your player pools with those who have won here before. Despite its long history, Kirk is one of just six defending champions returning in the field this week. While his course history is solid and current form is among the best in this field, Kirk still projects to open at discounted odds.

At the start of this season, Kirk was still chasing his first TOUR victory since the 2015 Charles Schwab Challenge. After a win at the 2023 Honda Classic, Kirk should return to Fort Worth with more confidence in his game than ever before. Beyond his Honda Classic win, Kirk’s season includes other strong results in comparable conditions, finishing T3 at the Sony Open and T10 in his last trip to Texas at the Valero Texas Open.

From a stat profile standpoint, Kirk’s is just as suitable to attack Colonial CC today it was when he took this tournament down in 2015. He ranks No. 11 in my model this week, rating top-10 in Par-4: 350-450, SG: ARG, and SG: TOT over the last 36 rounds. With a top-heavy, Elevated field in store, Kirk is a value bet I’m looking to target when odds open Monday.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR AT THE 2023 CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE

The Charles Schwab Challenge will mark the fourth and final PGA event contested in Texas this season. After going from the AT&T Byron Nelson in the same region, up to the PGA Championship in Rochester, New York, it’ll be interesting to monitor what a major championship hangover week looks like for players like Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, and Rickie Fowler (who saw early exits after having lofty expectations) versus Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler, who looked excellent at Oak Hill but will now need to re-calibrate for a lower-stakes event. 

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early towards the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.  

2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Model Breakdown

In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: APP first and foremost, followed by a more balanced mix of SG: T2G (Recent Form), P4: 350-450, Comp Course History, Good Drives Gained, Prox: 100-200, SG: P (TOT + Bent) and Doubles Avoided.

Model Favorites

Already a winner once this season in Texas, it’s Tony Finau who claims No. 1 honors in my model this week. Finau continues to display elite, well-rounded form, as he ranks top-2 in SG: APP, SG: Ball Striking, SG: T2G, and Comp Course History over the last 36 rounds. He has finished top-35 in all seven career Charles Schwab Challenge appearances, including a T4 here last year. He’ll look to rebound off of a disappointing finish at Oak Hill last week.

After Finau, the rest of my model’s top 10 is rounded out by: Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Rickie Fowler, and Justin Rose.

When 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge odds open Monday, I’ll look to Sungjae Im, Collin Morikawa, Russell Henley, and Chris Kirk as my first potential targets depending on where the odds ultimately open.

Check back in later this week for more updates. Best of luck navigating 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge odds!

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