2022 Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Card, Final Mito PGA Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on May 25, 2022
golf betting

The 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge was probably my most disappointing golf betting experience last season, as Jordan Spieth, who began Sunday at near -200 odds to win, failed to stave off a mediocre Jason Kokrak with all of Dallas attempting to will Spieth to victory.

And so, it makes for an appropriate venue to follow up the most disappointing sports betting experience of my lifetime, several days after my Mito Pereira outright apart on the final hole of the PGA Championship. From there, we’ll turn the page to my Charles Schwab Challenge bets below!

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Requiem For A 300-1 Ticket

I did some reflecting, and the cut to Mito’s ball at the bottom of the creek on 18 was not just a golf betting bad beat, but the worst moment in my sports fandom lifetime. In perspective, I think I’ve had a pretty good run to this point. As a fan of the Giants, Knicks, Yankees, Islanders, and Syracuse Basketball/Football, I’ve been fortunate to avoid devastation in big moments over the last 29 years. I had no attachment to other colossal championship heartbreaks like the Falcons Super Bowl collapse, the Cubs Steve Bartman foul ball, or the countless March Madness buzzer beaters (thankfully I wasn’t alive yet for Keith Smart’s buzzer beater over Syracuse in the 1987 championship). The Islanders, Knicks and Syracuse Football have essentially avoided big moments altogether as long as I’ve been alive, so disappointment has always been relative. 

Similar with the Giants, the expectations have always been low in big moments, but they’ve had a great track record in terms of converting championships. The Matt Dodge punt to DeSean Jackson was the leader for most devastating sports moment of my life prior to last week, followed closely by running a QB sneak on 3rd & 20 last season and drafting Saquon Barkley with the No. 2 overall pick.

For the Yankees, it was the Luis Gonzales walk-off bloop single over short off of Mariano Rivera that marked my lowest point as a baseball fan, but the Yankees’ dominance in that era made that loss a tad easier to swallow.

With all of this said, I frame the disappointment of Mito Pereira’s closing stretch on Sunday at the PGA Championship not as a bad golf betting beat, but with empathy for a player I’ve supported so closely week to week. In that sense, I haven’t thought about the money lost once since Sunday. It’s unusual to bet golf every week and find yourself rooting for an individual player regardless of the money at stake, but that’s what sports fandom is meant to be. There are highs and lows, but if you stay along throughout the ride, those lows make the highs feel that much sweeter.

Russell Henley at the Sony Open and Keegan Bradley at the Wells Fargo Championship set the tone for bad golf betting beats this year, but with Mito, the situation feels entirely different. Yes, he had one hand on the Wannamaker Trophy for the entire weekend of the PGA Championship, but this was his second career major championship start, with less than 30 career PGA TOUR starts under his belt. The potential for Mito to learn from this and get himself back into these positions for decades to come makes this loss much easier to swallow, knowing it will not be his last opportunity to convert on the big stage. He handled the loss with class, and I’ll continue to stand by Mito throughout his career for many more majors to come. Just not this week, I need a break.

Okay, let’s get to my betting card. Click on the golf odds below if you’d like to add my 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge bets as well.

HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

The Charles Schwab Challenge is one of the more predictive tournaments in terms of course history, as accurate players both off the tee and on approach with long-term putting pedigree have enjoyed repeated success. As I built out my betting card for this week’s event, I took a pretty simple approach of short listing players with proven history, who enter in good form with their ball striking, particularly on shorter, positional comp courses.

In terms of unit allocation, it’s back to business as usual across the board for outrights (3U in to pay 24U each), props (3U in to pay out 3U+ each) and FRL (0.5U in to pay out 10U+).

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Collin Morikawa

My Bet: +2000

Best Odds Still Available:

Collin Morikawa was the first bet I placed on Monday morning, and 20-1 odds did not last very long for him. He hasn’t been as active between majors, so it’s easy to lose sight of his standing compared to the other players in this field, but I’m not going to overlook one of the best iron players in the world on a course which emphasizes control both off the tee and on approach. Morikawa nearly won in his Charles Schwab Challenge debut in 2020, instead losing to Daniel Berger in a playoff. He returned last year for a T14 finish, solidifying that this is a course that will suit his game each time he comes back.

Viktor Hovland

My Bet: +2300

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s easy to forget that Viktor Hovland is the best iron player in the world right now, but he is, and that’s always going to set you up for success on a course like Colonial CC which puts a premium on precision with many forced layups and small greens. Last year, Jason Kokrak bucked a trend of shorter plotters winning at Colonial CC, instead playing aggressively off the tee to cut off angles over doglegs and set up easier birdie opportunities with shorter wedges on approach. Viktor Hovland is the exact same profile of player as Jason Kokrak, just taking the ball striking numbers to greater heights. So if Kokrak can find repeated success here, there’s no reason we shouldn’t expect Hovland to see the same as he picks up more experience around these grounds.

Tony Finau

My Bet: +4000

Best Odds Still Available:

It only took three weeks for me to go right back to Tony Finau after relegating him to the blacklist halfway through the Mexico Open. He seemed to be guessing his way through the greens at that point; however, he’s completely turned things around miraculously since then with his putter, losing strokes on the green in just two of his next ten individual rounds.

While it would make sense for Finau to specialize on longer courses that allow him to flex his driving distance advantage, he’s actually been a standout at Colonial CC, ranking No. 1 overall in this field in terms of SG: OTT in this event. He’s gained over 3.5 strokes OTT in each of his last four trips to Colonial, and in six career appearances, has never finished worse than T34. Finau remains in great T2G and Ball Striking form (top-10 in each), so considering he’s gained 2+ strokes putting in half of his Charles Schwab Challenge appearances, there’s a clear path for the stars to align for Finau this week.

Kevin Kisner

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

I can’t say I have Wyndham Championship-level conviction in Kevin Kisner this week, but I do consider Sedgefield CC to be the No. 1 Comp Course to Colonial CC, so it’s easy to make a case for the no. 32 OWGR ranked player at triple digit odds. In true Kisner fashion, he’s underwhelmed on recent longer courses, but has still put together three T10 finishes in 2022 on closer comp courses to Colonial CC. The 2017 Charles Schwab Challenge champion has been outspoken about loving the way this course suits his game, so I’ll overlook the recent lackluster results and chase the upside.

FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +5500

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s the rare perfect storm of solid recent form, course fit, and proven course history for Sebastian Munoz. He could not miss a putt on these greens in 2021, so the Texas native should be feeling comfortable as he goes for his second FRL in three weeks.

Stewart Cink

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

If Cink continues his momentum form the PGA Championship, he has the tools to find success on this golf course. The irons and putter are trending, and that’s all you need to cash yourself a first round lead.

Cameron Tringale

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

You’ll never catch me betting Cameron Tringale to win outright, but if the course fit makes sense, he’s always in play as a first round leader. His results at Colonial CC have been terrible, never finishing inside the top-40, but that doesn’t mean he can’t at least have one good round to start.

Brendon Todd

My Bet: +11000

Best Odds Still Available:

Todd was a first-round Co-Leader at the Mexico Open two starts ago, and now enters a course much more tailored to his game of hitting fairways and holing a high percentage of putts. The results back up that course fit, as Todd has posted two T10 finishes at the Charles Schwab Challenge over his last five appearances.

Aaron Rai

My Bet: +13000

Best Odds Still Available:

Over the last four events, Aaron Rai is No. 1 in this field in terms of Round 1 Scoring, averaging over 4 strokes gained each Thursday. I don’t always look at the data before placing a FRL, but Rai passes the eye test and seems to be a regular on Thursday leaderboards now.

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PROPS (3 UNITS)

Top-40 Finish: Brendon Todd

My Bet: +160

Best Odds Still Available:

It’s not easy to find plus-odds for a T40 bet on a player with multiple-PGA TOUR wins, multiple T10s at a given event, and another T10 finish within his last four starts. That’s what we get here with Brendon Todd, however, who ranks no. 2 in terms of SG: P at Colonial CC and on Bentgrass greens over the last 24 rounds. We can expect Todd to play this week from the Fairway, so if he continues to make a high clip of putts on these greens, it won’t take much else to cash a T40.

Top-20 Finish: Webb Simpson

My Bet: +185

Best Odds Still Available:

After all the nice words I had to say about Webb Simpson in the Spotlight feature of this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge Preview, I just couldn’t bring myself to pull the trigger at 40-1 outright odds. The form at Southern Hills was encouraging, but as a result, the market’s put a greater premium on Webb’s outright prospects than I would have anticipated. I prefer Tony Finau in a 1v1, who has better course history and better recent ball striking form. With that said, there’s still too much to like about Webb not to have exposure, and he’s clearly one of the top-20 players in this field.

Top-20 Finish: Stewart Cink

My Bet: +375

Best Odds Still Available:

Stewart Cink is trending in all of the right areas heading into this event, with two top 10s in his last five starts. His ball striking has been excellent over that stretch, and he has a history of playing at his best in the week after a Major. Cink also has a T10 to his name at this event in 2017, so the upside is there to push inside the top-20.

Top-20 Finish: Richard Bland

My Bet: +1400

Best Odds Still Available:

An obvious miss price on Draft Kings Tuesday morning, this number did not last long for Blandy. I really like the course fit, as Colonial’s lack of length should help him get away with being one of the shortest drivers in the field. While he’s had limited PGA TOUR reps, he’s been great in the Texas Swing so far with a T9 at the WGC Dell Match Play and T29 at the Valero Texas Open. I can’t say I’d be jumping to play him at his current odds, but it’s a very solid course fit nonetheless.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Viktor Hovland

I just keep going back to the ideology that if Jason Kokrak can play well here, then Viktor Hovland must be able to too. I’m in too big of a OAD hole to eat the chalk with Jordan Spieth this week, and there are more obvious opportunities down the line to use Hovland, so I don’t see him being overly used in this spot.

If not Hovland, I would also consider Brian Harman, Webb Simpson, and Tony Finau.

THE GOLF BETTING CARD: CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE BETS

That’ll do it for my golf betting card for the Charles Schwab Challenge. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting, and see you on Sunday for the Memorial 2022 Preview!

John Haslbauer Avatar
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John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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