NFL Wild Card Playoff Odds, Picks, SGP Best Bets: Will Texans Upset Chargers?
To kick off the odds for the NFL Wild Card playoff round, the 11-6 Los Angeles Chargers travel to NRG Stadium to battle the 10-7 Houston Texans. The fifth-seeded Chargers are Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 (-120) on Caesars favorites against the AFC South champs, with a total of 42 (-110) on Bet365. Let’s look closer at the wild card odds for the Chargers at Texans, including my best bet and options for same-game parlays.
Click any odds below to place a bet. You can also sift through the best sportsbook promos at the best sports betting sites.
chargers at texans odds: spread, moneyline, total
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NFL wild card best bet: texans +3
Our NFL wild card betting guide notes that this point spread opened with Los Angeles as a 2.5-point road favorite. According to DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings, Jim Harbaugh’s crew is one of six playoff teams with a “good” offense and defense.
I believe the Chargers are overvalued in the market. They exceeded their preseason win total of 8.5, finishing 8-1 straight up (SU) against teams below .500. Nevertheless, they went 3-5 versus teams over .500. Their lone win(s) against a postseason participant came against the Denver Broncos (twice).
To boot, their defense profited from only facing a handful of quarterbacks who settled above the league average in EPA per dropback. They were more pedestrian in those games, surrendering an average of 6.9 yards per pass attempt (YPA) against Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes (twice), Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield.
Conversely, I’m (begrudgingly) willing to bet on C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ offense at what is seemingly the bottom of their market value. Stroud undoubtedly underperformed expectations in his sophomore campaign, and he’s without stud wideouts Stefon Diggs (torn ACL) and Tank Dell (knee) the rest of the way. But he’s feasted against zone defenses, which the Chargers primarily utilize.
Meanwhile, Justin Herbert and Co. have made a living on playing ball control, manufacturing a top-10 rushing rate. On paper, DeMeco Ryan’s unit is built to stymie them at the line of scrimmage, generating the league’s second-best run-stop win rate.
Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. deserves his flowers. However, this matchup places more pressure on Houston’s nose tackles, like Tim Settle. Los Angeles showcases dominant offensive tackles in Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, yet it’s vulnerable on the interior.
Final Wild Card Betting Thoughts
The Chargers are playing their third straight road contest, traveling from New England to Las Vegas and Houston. Over the past 19 seasons, playoff teams in this situation are just 11-27 SU (29%). This trend indicates that teams are often overvalued in these spots.
On Tuesday, I bet 1.15 units on Texans +3 (-115) at bet365 Sportsbook. You’ll find this pick in our free sports betting Discord channel. Head to the #roles server to enroll in push notifications.
Potential Same-Game Parlay Picks
Using the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, I would consider putting some pizza money on an SGP with Texans moneyline (ML) and Stroud to tally two or more passing touchdowns. This two-leg SGP produces +275 odds.
- Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord — with over 5,000 community members and our staff sharing bets daily.
NFL Wild Card Promos For Same-Game Parlays
Most SGP promos will require you to opt in to qualify for the SGP promotional benefits. We’re seeing bonus-bets-back SGP offers for every customer at FanDuel Sportsbook.
There are also profit boost offers at bet365, DraftKings, and Caesars. BetMGM Sportsbook offers SGP insurance tokens for bonus bets if one leg loses.
watch: chargers at texans betting preview
Team injuries
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