Eli’s Chargers – Broncos Bet, Same Game Parlay Tip

Written By Eli Hershkovich on October 17, 2022 - Last Updated on October 18, 2022
Same Game Parlay

Before you handicap NFL Week 7 odds, let’s dig into how I’m betting the Monday Night Football matchup between the Chargers and Broncos. You’ll find some advice for a same game parlay, too.

Join our NFL Discord betting channel to receive an immediate notification when we bet anything, which you can sign up for under the #roles server. Click on any of the odds below to place a bet as well.

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Broncos at Chargers Odds

Both AFC West teams have failed to reach expectations through their first five games. Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson’s respective injuries haven’t helped, either.

Which Side Is More “Valuable”?

Denver is the buy-low option in this spot. For starters, Nathaniel Hackett’s team is dead-last in red zone efficiency (21.4%) across the NFL. Hackett’s incompetence and Wilson’s poor decision-making both deserve their fair share of criticism.

However, they could see some positive regression in that department. Mind you, Brandon Staley’s unit is yielding an above-average conversion rate (57.9%) inside its own 20-yard line.

Los Angeles is even surrendering the fourth-highest Rushing EPA — its most glaring defensive liability — which takes pressure off Wilson in theory.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are generating the third-highest Run Block Win Rate (RBWR) despite notching the league’s lowest Rushing EPA. This metric conveys the rate that linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer.

Moreover, these categories indicate that additional positive variance could be headed their way at SoFi Stadium.

Key Injuries On Both Fronts

Denver could be without offensive linemen Dalton Risner (back) and Quinn Meinerz (hamstring). It’s already minus All-Pro left tackle Garett Bolles (injured reserve), plus blossoming running back Javonte Williams (IR).

If the Broncos manage to establish themselves on the ground, they’ll be in position to burn clock and keep Herbert & Co. on the sidelines. These teams are separated by 15 spots, concerning pace in neutral situations, with Staley’s bunch at the top of the list.

With that said, Herbert may run out of time in the pocket. The Broncos blitz (33.9%) and pressure (26.6%) at a top-10 rate. The Chargers have struggled in pass protection thus far as well, tallying the 11th-lowest Pass Block Win Rate (PBWR).

Exacerbating these issues are injuries to center Corey Linsley (illness), right tackle Trey Pipkins (MCL sprain), and left tackle Rashawn Slater (IR). The first two are listed as questionable. Even wideout Keenan Allen (hamstring) is expected to miss his fifth straight game.

I bet Denver +4.5, and I’d play this side down to +4. Be sure to monitor the best available number.

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Same Game Parlay Tip

Although I stay away from same game parlays, consider betting with FanDuel Sportsbook if you’re interested. There, new users receive $150 in free bets after an initial wager of $5 or more. You’ll also haul in three months of NBA League Pass.

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