Champions League Final Preview: Manchester City Vs. Inter Milan Odds

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Written By Dan Tracey | Last Updated
champions league final odds

Champions League odds culminate with the final Saturday, June 10. Manchester City faces Inter Milan at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey. Kickoff is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET and televised on CBS and Univision, with a streaming option available on Paramount+. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match. Man City is seeking its first Champions League title, with Inter Milan going for its fourth (1964, 1965, 2010). Let’s break down every angle of the Champions League final odds.

I’ll also offer some potential bets to make that I will personally wager on as well.

Champions League Final Odds

Bettors should be aware that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If the match is tied after that, Extra Time and perhaps penalty kicks will follow. However, a draw will be paid out on the three-way money line and Man City or Inter bets will be graded as a loss, even if a side wins in Extra Time.

If you are looking for a moneyline bet on a team to win no matter how they win, look for “To Win The Cup” and similarly named props.

Manchester City Team Preview

The latest edition of the English Premier League was secured back in May, and this year’s FA Cup was added to the trophy cabinet just a week ago. Manchester City has secured a domestic double and now they are aiming for the treble.

No English soccer outfit has managed to win all three prizes in the same campaign since Manchester United did so in 1999. A generation has passed since the Red Devils conquered Europe and now their crosstown rivals will be looking to do the same.

While there is no doubt that Manchester City’s Abu Dhabi-based owners see the Champions League as the holy grail, and although ruling the roost in England comes with its own gravitas, being anointed as the kings of the continent matters the most.

Because for all the millions of dollars that have been spent in the past decade or so, this is the one prize that has stayed out of their grasp. They got as close as the final in 2021. They are not aiming to be runners-up in 2023. Nor should they be when you consider the ludicrous amount of talent that can be found within the squad. Whether it be Erling Haaland in attack, Ilkay Gundogan in midfield, or John Stones in defense, manager Pep Guardiola has some quality personnel to call upon.

Some will say that City will never have a better opportunity to get their hands on the Champions League, and they are probably right. Champions League final odds indicate as much. At the time of publish, even the most pessimistic moneyline at the sportsbooks in the table above imply a 67.7% chance Man City wins in the 90.

Their destiny is now in their own hands. Can it finally be fulfilled? 

Inter Milan Team Preview

There is no doubt that Inter Milan took full advantage of the knockout phase bracket to somewhat defy Champions League final odds. No heavyweights to go up against before Saturday, just a number of catchweight European opponents.

After edging past Porto in the Round of 16, Benfica and AC Milan would subsequently follow. Inter may not have blitzed past their opponents to reach Istanbul, but they have excelled when it comes to grinding out victories.

While their ability to dig in when it matters is something that manager Simone Inzaghi will look to use as the bedrock of Inter’s game plan come Saturday – anything else, and things could get rather ugly.

Because if Inzaghi sets up his team to go toe-to-toe with Manchester City, that is when they could quite easily be torn apart. If they are prepared to scrap and fight as they have done before, the contest becomes a lot more even.

While there is no doubt that Inzaghi’s troops are experienced when it comes to fighting in the trenches and with the likes of 37-year-old Edin Dzeko and 34-year-old Henrikh Mkhitaryan to call upon, these are two examples of attacking generals. 

Should the Italian outfit win on Saturday, it would not only be their first outright success since Jose Mourinho led them to glory in 2010, but it may also offer the perfect swan song for Inter’s senior professionals. 

Manchester City vs. Inter Milan Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

TeamMPGFGAGDxGxGAxGD
Manchester City12315+2625.58.9+16.6
Inter Milan121910+916.214.1+2.1

Matchup History

The two teams have never met in the Champions League. The 2023 final will be their first ever competitive meeting in any UEFA competition. 

Bets To Consider From Champions League Final Odds

Kevin De Bruyne Anytime Assist: +130

Although the focus will undoubtedly be on Erling Haaland both before and during Saturday’s Champions League final, it is not just his goalscoring prowess that will be shining such a bright spotlight.

For as incredible a season as Haaland has had, he must also be thankful for the incredible service that he receives from his teammates. None more so than the goals that Kevin De Bruyne puts on a plate. The Belgian has once again been a joy to watch throughout the duration of the campaign and that joy can be largely measured by the number of assists that he has made for other City players. A measure that is currently 31 and counting. 

A measure that was only 29 a week ago and with the English FA Cup offering De Bruyne the ideal platform to show off his talents, it only needed 13 seconds for him to lay on the opening goal for Ilkay Gundogan.

While although it may have taken another 50 minutes for the same combination to tear Manchester United apart, the outcome was still the same. City back in front at Wembley and De Bruyne adding another assist to his burgeoning tally.

This is why I have backed the 31-year-old to lay on at least one more goal in Istanbul. He may not get his own name on the scoresheet but at odds of +120, he is almost certain to make sure someone else does. 

BetMGM Same Game Parlay: Manchester City win and both teams to score: +230

With Manchester City already winning both the English Premier League and the FA Cup in recent weeks, there is a feeling that Champions League success is written in the stars and this will finally be the year in which they reign supreme.

Of course, Inter Milan will be doing their absolute best to make sure that this is not the case. They are part of Saturday’s showpiece event on merit, but in fairness to the Italians, they have had to break far less of a sweat to get to Istanbul.

Whereas Inter has got the better of Porto, Benfica, and AC Milan, City has had to deal with PSG, Bayern Munich, and Real Madrid in quick succession. There is reaching the final the hard way and then there is swatting away three of the biggest names in the game.

While it was the mauling of Real Madrid in Manchester that suggests Pep Guardiola’s men are the real deal. After such a stunning performance at the Etihad, the last thing the Spaniard wants is for his players to fall short at the final and tallest hurdle. 

A hurdle that could be made taller by former City forward Edin Dzeko and although he left the club in 2016, the prospect of netting against a former employer offers a neat subplot before the game gets underway.

City are lightning-fast in attack but have a chink in their armor when it comes to their defense. A combination of factors that will still allow them to win this season’s Champions League, but at +200 for them to also concede in the process I believe this is where the value lies.

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