College Football Playoff Round 1 Odds, Picks, ML Underdog Parlay: Will Vols Upset OSU?
There’s no longer time to shout about which programs deserve a spot in the College Football Playoff. Instead, let’s determine some winners among the Round 1 matchups, including No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State in Ohio Stadium. Below is a two-team moneyline underdog parlay for CFP odds from Patrick Evans (writer for our sister site, Legal Sports Report) and me.
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No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame
Eli’s Pick: Indiana ML
As I noted in my betting guide for Notre Dame vs. Indiana odds, 42 of the 59 (.712) dogs that have covered the point spread in bowl games over the last three seasons have won straight up.
More importantly, I’m skeptical about how the Fighting Irish’s secondary will fare against Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke. Indiana has generated the most points per pass attempt (PPA) across FBS. Rourke also completes over 52% of his passes, more than 10 yards downfield. According to Pro Football Focus, the grad transfer has compiled 18 big-time throws to only five turnover-worthy plays.
With Notre Dame missing stud cornerback Benjamin Morrison (hip surgery), its defensive backfield could be exposed in a way that didn’t appear in the final score of its win over USC in its regular season finale.
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
Patrick’s Pick: Tennessee ML
Ohio State has a strong resume and boasts the fourth-shortest odds to win the College Football Playoff. Nevertheless, a few things are working in Tennessee’s favor. Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day appears to have somewhat lost the plot, especially after ending the regular season with a loss to a mediocre Michigan. This defeat will show the Vols the way to the quarterfinals.
Tennessee can win by controlling the line of scrimmage and pounding the ball down OSU’s throat. The Vols boast an incredibly stout defense, too. It should stymie Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard, who has struggled against his toughest competition.
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