College Football Playoff First-Round Odds & Cheat Sheet: Betting Notes & Key Injuries

Like it or not, the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff is here. The largest restructure to the sport since introducing the four-team CFP brings uncertainty and opportunity in its betting odds. Big Ten champion Oregon, SEC champion Georgia, Mountain West champion Boise State, and Big 12 champion Arizona State all await their quarterfinal matchups on byes. Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana, SMU, and Clemson comprise the rest of the 12. This weekend, catch the CFP on ESPN (8 p.m. kickoffs) and TNT (all others).

Below is a comprehensive rundown of odds movement, impact injuries, betting notes, weather, and more.

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Matchup Notes for College Football Playoff Odds

All times Eastern. Each team’s number refers to its seed, NOT its final CFP ranking.

No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame, Friday (8 p.m., ESPN)

• Game will be at Notre Dame Stadium (capacity: 77,622).
• Notre Dame leads the all-time series 23-5-1. The teams most recently played in 1991, but the 28 prior meetings occurred before 1960.
• Notre Dame led the nation in average point margin (+26.3 points), while Indiana ranked third (+24.5 points).
• Indiana won 10 games for the first time in program history this year (126 seasons) and extended head coach Curt Cignetti through 2032.
• The Irish finished 9-2-1 against the closing spread, one of those losses being their shocking Week 2 outright loss to Northern Illinois as 28.5-point favorites.
• The Hoosiers finished 9-3 against the closing number. At Ohio State (+10.5), its most challenging game, ended in a lopsided 38-15 loss.
• Indiana also went 3-1 ATS on the road, with that Ohio State game being the sole loss.
• Indiana is missing two starting guards due to season-ending injuries. Notre Dame lost five starters to season-ending injuries, including All-American CB Benjamin Morrison and star DE Jordan Bothelo.
• One of TheLines.com’s lead writers has already placed a bet on this game.

No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State (Noon, TNT)

• Game will be at Beaver Stadium (capacity: 106,572).
• Penn State leads the all-time series 1-0-1 (last: 1978 in State College).
• The Nittany Lions own a 54-14 record at home in the last 10 seasons. Two losses came in the previous four seasons as favorites of 21 points or more (’21 in 9OT versus Illinois and ’20 versus Maryland).
• James Franklin owns a 4-17 record against Ohio State, Michigan, and Oregon. Under him, Penn State is 3-2 in New Year’s Six bowls and 1-1 in the Big Ten championship games. Though in the friendly confines of Beaver Stadium, Franklin isn’t known for being a strong performer in big games.
• As a road underdog, Rhett Lashlee is 2-5 ATS but did win outright as a +7 ’dog at Louisville this year (SMU’s only instance as a road ’dog).
• SMU won 10 straight games after starting the year 2-1 with a loss to BYU. It lost on a 56-yard walk-off field goal in the ACC championship game to Clemson.
• Nobody got home to the QB more than SMU over its last three games. The Mustangs recorded an absurd 15.3% sack rate, more than twice what it accomplished on the season.
• Despite going against a strong front seven, Penn State rushed for nearly 300 yards against Oregon in the Big Ten championship game.
• Watch for frigid temperatures below 20 degrees! Although this game will see a warming trend as the day continues, temperatures will peak around 25 degrees.

No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas (4 p.m., TNT)

• Game will be at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium (capacity: 100,119).
• These two teams have never met despite 246 combined seasons and multiple postseason runs.
• In SEC play, Texas finished 1-3 ATS at home (Mississippi State, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky).
• Watch for the availability of star left tackle Kelvin Banks, who missed the SEC championship game with an ankle injury. He was listed as questionable heading into that contest and has had two weeks to recover.
• Clemson’s streak of recording a postseason win extended to 13 years with its 34-31 ACC championship win over SMU.
• The Tigers have the second-most wins in the College Football Playoff and a 6-4 record. This is Texas’ second CFP game (0-1; they lost to Washington in the semifinals last year).
• In Clemson’s last two games (South Carolina, SMU), Cade Klubnik was pressured 26 times and sacked five times. Texas’ defense ranks 10th with a 9.2% sack rate this season.

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State, Saturday (8 p.m., ESPN)

• Game will be at Ohio Stadium (capacity: 102,780).
• Ohio State was bet up through a key number (-7) and has since remained a -7.5 favorite.
• Tennessee won the only previous matchup between these schools in the 1996 Citrus Bowl, the most recent matchup of any first-round game.
• Ohio State owns a 5-14-1 record against SEC teams, including 2-13 in postseason matchups. The Buckeyes are 2-6 in major bowl games against the SEC.
• Tennessee has an all-time record of 13-5 against Big Ten foes. Since 2020, the Vols are 1-1 against the conference. The only major bowl games played against the Big Ten included the 1982 and ’88 Peach Bowls.
• This game features two defenses ranked in the top four in points per drive (Ohio State: 3, Tennessee: 4).
• Watch for the matchup between Ohio State’s rebuilt offensive line and Tennessee’s stout defensive line. The Buckeyes could not get much going against Michigan’s NFL-level front in Week 14.
• Watch for icy temperatures! The forecast calls for temperatures to start around 20 degrees and decline into the teens as the night progresses.

Related: CFP Look-Ahead Odds, Lines

Line Movement: CFP Odds

Check out the movers and opening lines below:

• Indiana dropped from +8.5 at Notre Dame to +7.5, approaching a key number (+7).
• The total for SMU at Penn State rose from 52.5 at open to 54.5.
• The total in Clemson at Texas fell from 53.5 points to 51.5.
• Ohio State moved through a key number, from -6.5 to -7.5, against Tennessee.

Impact Injuries On CFP Odds

Clemson at Texas

Watch for the availability of tackle Kelvin Banks, who missed the SEC championship game with an ankle injury. Banks is a projected top-10 NFL Draft pick this coming year. Without him in the lineup, QB Quinn Ewers took six sacks in a 22-19 overtime loss to Georgia in the SEC title game. Clemson’s defense finished 24th in sack rate over the last three games (9.35%).

Tennessee at Ohio State

Ohio State dealt with significant blows to its offensive line this season. Starting left tackle Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending injury, and his backup was in and out of the lineup due to injuries. The Buckeyes moved All-America guard Donovan Jackson to left tackle, which had good results in the run game but varying results in the passing game. Starting center Seth McLaughlin also suffered a season-ending injury late in the year. Against Michigan, Ohio State could not get anything on the ground with its rebuilt offensive line.

Tennessee ranks in the top 10 in line yards, havoc rate, and rush EPA. It also settles in the top 15 in stuff rate. Watch for an adjusted game plan from what the Buckeyes brought to the Michigan game.

Other Roster & Staff Impacts on Cfp Odds

SMU at Penn State

Penn State QB Beau Pribula announced his entry into the transfer portal this past weekend. Pribula, a dual-threat athlete, backed up Drew Allar but had some packages built for him. The safety net behind Allar is much further down now, as true freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer is now QB2 on the depth chart.

Similarly, backup QB Preston Stone announced his entry into the transfer portal. However, Stone will stay with SMU throughout its time in the CFP. Stone started 19 games for the Mustangs before conceding to Kevin Jennings.

Weather Impacts On Cfp Odds

Weekly college football weather reports are more specific later in the week when forecasts are more concrete. But here are a few spots to keep tabs on early in the week.

Weather may be a serious factor in these first-round games at home sites. Three home teams — Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Penn State — reside in northern states. Tennessee and SMU hail from southern states, making the uncertainty of mid-December winter a potentially significant advantage for the home teams.

On Saturday, highs in State College are forecast to peak at 25 degrees, with lows near 10 degrees. Moderate winds (10-15 mph) with stronger gusts (20+) could drop the “feels like” temperatures to 10 degrees or below, with snow currently in the forecast. SMU, from Dallas, visits Penn State in this weather. Expect Penn State to fare much better in freezing temperatures. For instances of Texas schools playing in sub-freezing temperatures, see the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl between Air Force and Baylor.

Additionally, the temperature during Tennessee at Ohio State is expected to be below 20 degrees, with wind chills nearing zero.

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