Celtics vs. Heat NBA Odds, Game 7 Betting Predictions & Promotions
Ahead of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals, Boston Celtics odds were priced between -500 and -550 to arrive on the biggest stage in consecutive seasons. Now, Jayson Tatum & Co. aim to become to first team in NBA postseason history to overcome a 3-0 series deficit. Let’s break down the Game 7 betting market against the Miami Heat, which has the Celtics priced as a home favorite. The total is set at .
Click on any of the Heat – Celtics odds in this article to place a wager.
Game 7: Celtics vs. Heat Odds
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Celtics Odds & Game 7 Betting Predictions
No matter which side bettors were on in Game 6, their immediate reaction may have sounded like, “Boston was fortunate,” or maybe something more vulgar. That’s because Derrick White’s improbable buzzer-beating putback could have enforced the notion that the Celtics didn’t deserve to see this series go seven games — and that Boston backers shouldn’t have cashed their moneyline tickets on Saturday night.
Nevertheless, there’s much more to end result than solely the final sequence.
Evaluating Game 6 Result
Overall, the Heat outscored the Celtics by 21 points from behind the arc. Meanwhile, Boston generated a 7-of-35 perimeter shooting performance (20.0%). Outside of Marcus Smart and the aforementioned White, Boston going 0-of-17 from distance seems almost inconceivable.
As it should. Keep in mind, the Celtics produced a 3-of-16 shooting display (18.8%) on open 3-point attempts (4-6 feet of space). There’s no doubting that Miami, which boasts the second-rated defense among postseason participants, forced difficult looks outside of those instances for Jayson Tatum & Co. But the likelihood that Boston fails to at least somewhat rebound in this department is slim.
Granted, there are certainly gamblers who will broach the other startling offensive output from Game 6. After all, the Heat hit only 30.2% of their two-point shots. However, their inefficiency inside the arc shouldn’t seem that absurd, as 45.2% of those attempts were contested.
That was a result of the Celtics’ thwarting defense at the rim, thanks in large part to Al Horford and Robert Williams. Their guards and wings had plenty to do with it as well via their ball pressure. Nothing came easy at the basket for Jimmy Butler and the rest of Miami’s attack.
Evaluating whether certain metrics are repeatable is a critical part of betting the spread for any market. Although Boston laying three possessions may appear a tad steep on the surface, the Celtics’ perimeter shooting is the more likely variable to get right.
Including the playoffs, Boston is 51-12 straight up in games when they make 15 or more 3-pointers. During the regular season, the Warriors were the lone team to knock down 15-plus 3s in more games than the Celtics (53). Hence, they’re heavily reliant on their productivity from distance.
Notable Game 7 Injury Status
Malcolm Brogdon, a perimeter marksman and the 2022-23 Sixth Man of the Year, is questionable for this game. The 30-year-old is dealing with a forearm injury that kept him on the bench for Saturday’s win. But he’s averaged only 6.8 points and shot 18.7% from downtown in this series, so the injury is clearly impacting his performance.
Related: Updated NBA Finals Odds
Historical Context
Among previous seven-game NBA postseason series, 149 teams have been handed a 3-0 series deficit. A trio of them won three straight games to force a decisive Game 7. That includes the 2003 Trail Blazers, 1994 Nuggets, and the 1951 Knicks.
As stated earlier on, none of them were able to complete the comeback. If you expect that to continue, betting Caleb Martin to win conference finals MVP (+2200) would be a fine alternative to Heat ML ().
The undrafted Nevada product is tallying 18.2 points and 5.2 boards, along with a 46.2% perimeter clip, through the first six games. He’s arguably played an equally impactful role to Butler in this series, too.
But there’s one factor that separates Joe Mazzulla’s bunch from the rest. Boston is the lone representative within this quartet to host the series finale. Neither the Trail Blazers, Nuggets, nor (most likely) the Knicks were favored to advance pre-flop, either.
Unsurprisingly, Tatum’s ECF MVP price tag (-280) is right on par with Celtics ML odds ().
Regarding the total (), it’s already been bumped down 207. Why? Pro bettors are well aware that Game 7 NBA unders are 37-22 (62.7%) since the 2005. They’re also 10-1 (90.9%) since 2017 — outside of the bubble.
Generally speaking, the tempo decelerates in these situations with fatigue settling in, especially at this juncture of the playoffs. You aren’t getting the best of the number if you decide to jump on board now, though.
Celtics vs. Heat Odds: NBA Player Props
How to Watch Celtics vs. Heat
This game is set to tip off at 8:30 p.m. EST on Monday. You can catch all of the action on TNT.
Celtics’ Odds: Sports Betting Promos
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