Ahead of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals, Boston Celtics odds were priced between -500 and -550 to arrive on the biggest stage in consecutive seasons. Now, Jayson Tatum & Co. aim to become to first team in league history to overcome a 3-0 postseason series deficit. Let’s examine the Game 5 betting market against the Miami Heat, which has Boston as a home favorite. The total is set at .
Click on any of the Heat – Celtics odds in this article to place a wager.
Game 5: Celtics Odds vs. Heat
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Celtics Odds & Game 5 Betting Predictions
Throughout betting NBA playoffs odds, bettors have correctly assessed that Boston’s defense isn’t nearly as robust as what the 2022 Eastern Conference champs showcased. Whether or not one considers that a product of the coaching shift from Ime Udoka to Joe Mazzulla, it certainly rung true over the first three games of this series as Miami averaged 1.24 PPP.
In particular, the Heat shot 58.8% (on 34 attempts) on wide-open 3-point attempts (at least six feet of space) while the Celtics hit just 32.6% (on 43 attempts) in those situations, digging the aforementioned series hole.
But the script flipped on Tuesday evening. Tatum and his cohorts tallied a 47.4% clip (9-of-19 shooting) on wide-open perimeter looks to stave off elimination. In particular, the ageless Al Horford — their floor-spacing center — regained his touch.
Their efficiency was aided by their ability to force live-ball turnovers and leak out in transition, especially in the second half.
Is Boston’s Performance Repeatable?
Including the playoffs, Boston is 50-12 straight up in games when they make 15 or more 3-pointers. During the regular season, the Warriors were the lone team to knock down 15-plus 3s in more games than the Celtics (53). Hence, they’re heavily reliant on their productivity from behind the arc.
Erik Spoelstra’s unit, which is tied with Denver for the top-rated defense among postseason participants, is much more comfortable guarding the 3-point line in a half-court setting. One could argue it’s even received a bit of luck throughout the postseason — before Boston’s 3-point woes arrived. Overall, Miami’s postseason opponents have notched the second-lowest efficiency on wide-open perimeter shots (34.6%).
The formula is rather simple. If the Celtics’ switching defense generates enough fast-break opportunities, including their fair share of clean looks from downtown, they’ll position themselves to cover the Game 5 line — and maybe even make history.
Therefore, don’t assume that the ensuing spread is inflated just because Miami emerged victorious in the first three games. If anything, the market readjusted Boston’s rating to where it stood before Game 4. Tuesday’s line underwent as much as a 6.5-point move from the Game 3 closing spread (Celtics -4.5).
Their hopes of extending this series are aided by Gabe Vincent’s ankle sprain, making him a spectator on Thursday. The injury to Miami’s starting guard occurred in the fourth quarter of Game 4.
Then again, Boston is dealing with its own significant injury. According to a report, Malcolm Brogdon, the 2023 NBA Sixth Man of the Year, is playing through a partial tear in the tendon in his right elbow. His points prop is lined at .
Related: NBA Finals Odds
Series Odds Or Moneyline Rollover?
Bettors who believe the Celtics will win the next three contests may be asking why the series price is on the lower end. After all, the Heat only need one more victory to advance. Nevertheless, it stems from the previous assertion of Boston’s upper-echelon standing in the betting market.
Considering the projected moneyline rollover odds are roughly +215, the best available series odds () deliver a slightly bigger profit.
For those with access to DraftKings Sportsbook, Tatum’s odds to win 2023 ECF MVP (+230) would appear to represent the most “valuable” approach.
Celtics Odds vs. Heat: NBA Player Props
How to Watch Celtics vs. Heat
This game is set to tip off at 8:30 p.m. EST on Thursday. You can catch all of the action on TNT.
Celtics Odds: Sports Betting Promos
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