Celtics-Knicks Game 3 Betting Odds: Despite 0-2 Hole, Is Boston Favored To Win Series & East?
The Eastern Conference semifinal matchup between the Celtics and Knicks hasn't gone according to the script. After opening as -800 favorites (88.9% implied probability) to advance, Boston is the first team in the play-by-play era (since 1996-97) to lose two games when leading by 20 or more points in a single postseason. So, how have the best sports betting sites adjusted the betting market for Jayson Tatum and Co. to win this series and beyond? Let's investigate Game 3 and futures odds for Celtics vs. Knicks.
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celtics at knicks game 3 odds: spread, moneyline, total
Celtics vs. knicks: NBA playoffs series odds
Series Correct Score
Odds To Win Eastern Conference
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Celtics-Knicks odds: Will Boston make NBA playoff history?
Since 1956, 463 postseason series (non-seven-game series included) began with a team winning the first two games. In 429 of them, the team with a 2-0 edge emerged victorious. Only 34 have mounted a comeback, equivalent to a 7.3% success rate.
Nevertheless, a team has survived this hole in each of the last four postseasons. It's a familiar situation for Tom Thibodeau's squad, as the Pacers overcame an 0-2 deficit and upended New York in seven games during last year's Eastern semis.
Per the tables above, Boston is lined at -105 and -110, respectively, to advance to the Eastern Conference finals. Essentially, oddsmakers are giving the Celtics a 50% chance to overcome adversity against their longtime rivals. Additionally, Tatum and Co. are still favored to win the Eastern Conference, with odds of +150 (40% implied probability) at BetMGM Sportsbook. For reference, they entered this series as -155 odds-on favorites to win the East for a second straight year.
Conversely, the Knicks' odds of reaching the NBA finals have shortened to +275 (26.7% implied probability). They were +1200 at the start of the playoffs before rising to +1400 ahead of the semifinals, reflecting the market's respect for Boston.
Explaining Odds Shift (Or Lack Thereof)
For bettors puzzled as to why New York is only a slight favorite to win this series at some sportsbooks while placed behind Boston to win the East, the justification is quite simple. The series price and remaining futures odds are centered around the Game 3 spread and projected lines for the rest of their potential matchups.
According to the Game 3 odds board, the Celtics are spread favorites and to win outright in Madison Square Garden on Saturday. There's a case that New York remains undervalued in Game 3 and moving forward, but the market rarely undergoes a heavy adjustment toward a team that has significantly outperformed expectations.
Historically speaking, the Knicks are the biggest Game 3 home underdog, leading a series 2-0, since the 1993 Lakers (+7).
Which Version Of Boston Will Show Up?
Remember that the Celtics were -8.5 and -10.5 favorites in Games 1 and 2, going 25-for-100 (25%) from behind the arc over this span. Will shooting regression finally surface and aid Boston's comeback attempt? In the regular season, Joe Mazzula's team ranked in the 97th percentile on spot-up jumpers, hitting 40.4% of its three-point attempts in those situations.
Let's couple that with the Knicks' last five postseason victories, which came by a combined 10 points, including an overtime win in Game 1. Are either of these short-term outcomes sustainable? The law of averages suggests Tatum and Co. will make this series competitive, further indicating why the market hasn't credited New York with its surface-level results.
That doesn't diminish the productivity of Knicks center Mitchell Robinson, whose defensive presence has helped generate a team-high +32 plus/minus in the first two matchups of this series. Robinson played 22 minutes in Game 2 and was +19, with the Knicks winning by a single point. To boot, Jalen Brunson has yet to tally an ultra-efficient performance in this series. Still, he generated nine fourth-quarter points in Game 2, including the final six points to secure the victory.
Brunson, who won the 2024-25 NBA Clutch Player of the Year, has strung together 86 fourth-quarter playoff points. No other player has provided more than 46. Only time will tell if his heroics will carry New York past the defending champs.
For my money, the betting market's stance is warranted. I'd consider a bet on the Celtics' series odds at -105 or better.
celtics vs. knicks: Series Schedule
- Game 3: Saturday, May 10 at New York: 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
- Game 4: Monday, May 12 at New York: 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
- * Game 5: Wednesday, May 14 at Boston: TBD start time on TNT
- * Game 6: Friday, May 16 at New York: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
- * Game 7: Monday, May 19 at Boston: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
* If Necessary
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